Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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WWW you somehow seem to have some control in what the future holds do u have some sort of mystical power?, if so please say that it will get better and there will be jobs for everyone and then it will!. hm well it was worth a try i supose hehe
Predicting this mess and its seriousness was the easy bit. The recovery and to what is a much more challenging question. The only thing I know is that the debt bubble of the past half decade will not return for at least a couple of generations.
Everybody is going to have to work a great deal harder to support their lifestyles. For the first time it seems likely that peoples parents generation will have been better off than their own.
WWW
Everybody is going to have to work a great deal harder to support their lifestyles. For the first time it seems likely that peoples parents generation will have been better off than their own.
WWW
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Of course this time I could be wrong.
A brief trawl hereabouts demonstrates however, that you'd have to be a fantastic optimist of the "fingers in ears lalalalala I'm not listening" type to want to bet against you.
(btw. Got any lottery tips?
)
I Have Control
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PLEASE BE CAREFuL!
WWW, you are right. I too saw the dotcom, property and credit bubbles coming, and am doing ok, thankfully. For what it's worth, I and most financial pundits believe things are going to get very much worse before they get better. Particularly in the USA and the UK. The impact on commercial aviation will be severe.
Young (or not-so-young) would-be pilots who have not yet committed funds....please WAIT! Your time will come. I have no vested inteest in writing this, and will retire in 3-4 years, hopefully to make room for a newbie. For now, those of us at the sharp end are all hanging onto our jobs.
Young (or not-so-young) would-be pilots who have not yet committed funds....please WAIT! Your time will come. I have no vested inteest in writing this, and will retire in 3-4 years, hopefully to make room for a newbie. For now, those of us at the sharp end are all hanging onto our jobs.
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Originally Posted by Alex
You gloomy lot just keep restaing your case to each over over and over, convinced that parotting Mr Preston makes you right and everybody else is, stupid, naive, etc.. Actually you only have an opinion, and there are those whose opinions differ from yours.
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Alex,
Sorry, but you are on the wrong side of the argument here - it is not simply opinion, but very much a fact of airline economics that passenger numbers on their own have very little bearing on financial health.
I must also take issue with this:
In fact - no - costs might even have risen, as sterling has been shot to pieces. Falling currency = increasing costs if denominated in dollars.
Sorry, but you are on the wrong side of the argument here - it is not simply opinion, but very much a fact of airline economics that passenger numbers on their own have very little bearing on financial health.
I must also take issue with this:
Costs should be on their way down now that oil is back to $65 a barrel
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I agree the next 18-24 months will be rough, but noone knows how well we can recover. You cannot assume it will last an entire generation, although obviously it makes for better drama to post it.
We have more experience and understanding in dealing with recession, and a UK government willing to take/lead significant early action.
Yes it's unfortunate to be graduating out of an FTO now, but telling wannabes to wait for 5 years to start training is just wrong.
Why would we listen to the economical rantings of people who cant even spell correctly? Just laughable.
Timescale for future economic recovery will be based on backbone more than anything; something that's largely unpredictable.
We have more experience and understanding in dealing with recession, and a UK government willing to take/lead significant early action.
Yes it's unfortunate to be graduating out of an FTO now, but telling wannabes to wait for 5 years to start training is just wrong.
Why would we listen to the economical rantings of people who cant even spell correctly? Just laughable.
Timescale for future economic recovery will be based on backbone more than anything; something that's largely unpredictable.
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Yes it's unfortunate to be graduating out of an FTO now, but telling wannabes to wait for 5 years to start training is just wrong.
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I have contributed less to this theme recently but confess to being absolutely gobsmacked that relative senior people in the training industry can still say with a straight face that "its not so bad". In the face of such overwhelming evidence to the contrary these people just underline that people will tell you anything to get you to part with your hard earned cash to chase a dream. BUYERS BEWARE!
On a more positve note at least we are now getting into the recession proper. The "phoney war" was getting a bit tiring. Its like being an alcoholic... the sooner you admit you have a problem the sooner you can start working your way out of the hole you have dug. Next year will be one of the toughest for decades.... Zoom, Excel etc.... you ain't seen nothing yet... more will go bust.
One thing people haven't talked about enough on here is Sterling (the currency not the airline) going through the floor. The challenge may well now be to choose between deflation and inflation.... the government will probably chose the latter meaning sterling could fall even further. A 20-30% increase in the cost of that trip overseas at a time when pressure is on your finances isn't going to help with hoilday bookings. God it is going to get ugly.... I genuinely fear coming into work at the moment and turning on the screens to see what Asia is doing...
On a more positve note at least we are now getting into the recession proper. The "phoney war" was getting a bit tiring. Its like being an alcoholic... the sooner you admit you have a problem the sooner you can start working your way out of the hole you have dug. Next year will be one of the toughest for decades.... Zoom, Excel etc.... you ain't seen nothing yet... more will go bust.
One thing people haven't talked about enough on here is Sterling (the currency not the airline) going through the floor. The challenge may well now be to choose between deflation and inflation.... the government will probably chose the latter meaning sterling could fall even further. A 20-30% increase in the cost of that trip overseas at a time when pressure is on your finances isn't going to help with hoilday bookings. God it is going to get ugly.... I genuinely fear coming into work at the moment and turning on the screens to see what Asia is doing...
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You misunderstand me. I completely agree with WWW that now is a time for wannabees to be very cautious. What I'm disagreeing with is the certainty that five or six regular posters on this thread have that we're all going to be living on the streets in a year's time. I'm saying that it isn't certain at all and that the economy could still go either way. I don't know it's going to get better in the spring, I'm not even presumptious enough to think it's going to get better in the spring, but I do think it could get better way before Dr Doom and his mates do.
I've said it before. It's easy, when there's an economic trend, to say it's going to continue. It is less easy to spot the turnaround.
I've said it before. It's easy, when there's an economic trend, to say it's going to continue. It is less easy to spot the turnaround.
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Originally Posted by chickentikkamasala
Guess what it's time for wannabes to be cautious. Batten down the hatches there's a recession on. Guess what www was the only one in the world to predict it.
Seriously, I agree with Alex. The only thing about the future that this thread provides is opinion. Therefore, anybody who predicts the future is simply guessing or hypothesising based on previous experience and economic trend. Saying that anybody who dares either disagree for one reason or another, or wants to start training in the near future (to come out of the system in 2 years) is naive, stupid, ignorant or all of the above, is doing nothing more than showing their own ignorance!
Maybe you're wrong. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the person that posts next is wrong. However, nobody knows that anybody is wrong.
For what it is worth, I trust the aviating "heavy weights" in that 2009 will be bad. The probability that it'll be bad is quite high, therefore, to suggest that it will be bad is a natural step that most people like to follow.
Don't get me wrong, the advice that is given on this thread (in some parts) is sound and logical. I accept that this could be horrific for 3-4 years. I also accept it might not be as bad as some say.
Anybody who wishes to make a contribution here whose view is more half full than my half empty is utterly welcome.
One sided rantings are of some but limited use to Wannabes trying to form an opinion. A hotly argued debate where views are contested and contrasting opinions put are of more use and provide a better read. Therefore whilst I am happy to play Bear its a much better play if other chip in as Bulls. Its never been discouraged and never will be.
Its quite right to question anything I say. A great danger is to make one or two calls correctly and then believe infallible insight has been discovered. It ain't so. I've been right about a HPC, how bad the credit crunch would be and about a recession. I may well be completely wrong about the upturn. It doesn't really matter any further than at least the benefit that Wannabes might get from having heard the arguments from people who aren't trying to sell them anything and who understand the business.
At the moment I predict a two year recession which started in Q2 2008. Best point for Wannabes to entering the job market would be Sept 2011. That's my optimistic projection.
I actually think that things will be worse than the 1990-91 recession because this time the whole developed world is in phase. Because the scale of the financial/banking crisis is usually closely correlated with the following recession and this is the worst money crisis since 1938. Because the aviation boom of the past decade has been unprecedented. Because Cheap Oil is gone forever this time. Because the house price crash is already twice as bad as the 1990's one and I believe that to be a close proxy for the following recession. Because in the last recession the industry was massively fat and wasteful and could respond by rationalizing and by inventing LoCo's and this time there are no new inventions at hand.
Its going to be worse this time I think. I've bought my farm and if needs be I can survive on the dole, good looks and charm... <cough>
WWW
One sided rantings are of some but limited use to Wannabes trying to form an opinion. A hotly argued debate where views are contested and contrasting opinions put are of more use and provide a better read. Therefore whilst I am happy to play Bear its a much better play if other chip in as Bulls. Its never been discouraged and never will be.
Its quite right to question anything I say. A great danger is to make one or two calls correctly and then believe infallible insight has been discovered. It ain't so. I've been right about a HPC, how bad the credit crunch would be and about a recession. I may well be completely wrong about the upturn. It doesn't really matter any further than at least the benefit that Wannabes might get from having heard the arguments from people who aren't trying to sell them anything and who understand the business.
At the moment I predict a two year recession which started in Q2 2008. Best point for Wannabes to entering the job market would be Sept 2011. That's my optimistic projection.
I actually think that things will be worse than the 1990-91 recession because this time the whole developed world is in phase. Because the scale of the financial/banking crisis is usually closely correlated with the following recession and this is the worst money crisis since 1938. Because the aviation boom of the past decade has been unprecedented. Because Cheap Oil is gone forever this time. Because the house price crash is already twice as bad as the 1990's one and I believe that to be a close proxy for the following recession. Because in the last recession the industry was massively fat and wasteful and could respond by rationalizing and by inventing LoCo's and this time there are no new inventions at hand.
Its going to be worse this time I think. I've bought my farm and if needs be I can survive on the dole, good looks and charm... <cough>
WWW
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Er, no it doesn't. I work for a no frills carrier and know full well that a full aircraft does not necessarily mean a sound business. There is far far more to it than that. The whole low cost model is based around the development of other revenue streams and ancilliary spending alongside cutting unnecessary cost out of the actual flying operation. I believe i'm right in saying that Ryanair make very little money from the selling of tickets for transport from A to B.
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They don't appear to be losing money hand over fist, Ryanair made €215m profit in the last 6 months, admittedly forecasting a break-even in the next 6 month period.
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This argument is failling to see the wood for the trees..... sentiment has dropped off a cliff in the last 2 months and that is not reflected in most of the data you are quoting. It is crap and going to get worse. You would have to be mad to pay for an IR at the moment.
Lehmans only went bust a couple of months ago... business class travel will plummet. Economy will follow.
Lehmans only went bust a couple of months ago... business class travel will plummet. Economy will follow.
I have just signed up with OATS, handed over £70k and start tomorrow. Managed to re-mortgage my parents house, although the interest rate hurts!
Do you think it was a bad move?
Do you think it was a bad move?
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sentiment has dropped off a cliff in the last 2 months and that is not reflected in most of the data you are quoting. It is crap and going to get worse.
The exact details may or may not be predictable but you don't need to be Mystic Meg to see there is going to be an unavoidable and protracted lean period for the airlines (and for almost everyone). It's not difficult either to see that right now the best thing to do is to hold off on any plans for trainning, this will go on for at least 18 month and there wont be any growth for years, airlines are aleady over staffed for the future.
I have just signed up with OATS, handed over £70k and start tomorrow. Managed to re-mortgage my parents house, although the interest rate hurts!
Do you think it was a bad move?
Do you think it was a bad move?
If you have (and I doubt that) then at least you can have a warm feeling to know that you are keeping a couple of flying instructors in a job for the next year.