Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[Sciolistes]

Nevertheless. The morality of going bankrupt does have to be carefully balanced against the morality of the money lenders. I just cannot make my heart bleed for the banks nor the airlines nor the training industry that have conspired to put Wannabes into MASSIVE debt secured against a flimsy dream.

I don't see a place for morality at all, it is a system and the banks, the populace and the government are slaves to it.

8/9ths of the money never existed in the first place.

And the rest! It is interesting looking at how Britain and America handled their respective economies (sub-prime aside for the moment). Britain has been steadily reducing its reserve requirements over the decades. We used to use to control the amount of money in the system (read creating artificial booms). Now there is no minimum reserve requirement the BoE decides what each Bank must deposit. But it is now an average of 3%, their new policy is not to use that as an economic instrument any longer. No wonder, it can't get any lower. The US on the other hand has a more conservative monetarism policy. Expect the US to recover sooner and recover fully. The UK with its bloated welfare state, spent options and over dependence on the stymied finance industry will be shadow of its former self for many years to come.

I understand what you're saying about banking and responsible lending but in my opinion the onus is firmly on the client. If they cannot afford to borrow the money then tough....don't borrow it.

It is easy to think that we have significant control over our finances, but the sad reality is that it is simply about the supply of money in the system verses the debt and interest. If a situation arises where suddenly the supply of money is reduced below a certain point then people default on their payments and the system implodes as is happening now. Nobody can safely say how much at risk they are because they will not know how dependent on credit their employer (present or future) is. Those that existed hand to mouth on credit were the first to go - in terms of airlines Zoom, Silverjet, XL, etc.

The result of such relaxed lending was to spark a cancer in the airline industry.

As yes, but without it there wouldn't have been a boom that arguably many more people have benefited from...at least temporarily. Will the BoE re-write its monetarism policy for moderation?

99% of pilot training in the UK has been bankrolled by the HSBC (including mine). Now, in my dealings with them I have to say they've been very responsible (I have my mortgage with them as well)...getting the money was not simply a case of showing up and asking for it. I had to prove I had the capability to pay it back.

I agree with the latter quote, I wanted a top up loan of 8k from HSBC. I had to come prepared with a CV and what amounted to a business plan. They also wanted evidence of my ability to get a job so it was fortunate that I completed a GAPAN assessment prior to starting out. That was 2005.

They are terrified of the return of jingle mail. That's where thousands, tens of thousands, start to simply post their house keys back to the banks. The house is worth tens of thousands of pounds less than they owe on it, they have no savings, few assets and maxed out credit cards.

I actually think the opposite is true. I get the impression that many of the banks want to repossess sooner than later. The earlier they can convert high risk unpaid debt into some sort of asset the better, even at a loss. For them it is all about liquidity right now, and anything that delays the inevitable just increases the risk.

Just thought I'd break from all this depressing chat by pointing out that Aer Lingus, BMI Regional, Jet2 and DHL are all hiring low hour pilots. Merry xmas!

Quite so. I have also noticed a small number airlines advertising for low houred chaps and chapesses in the last few weeks (luxair, Slovak, Jetairlfy, Airalps, Carpatair for starters).

[Rob's Dad]

or rather they WERE recruiting low-hours guys

Mixmaster

I'm normally an upbeat sort of guy, but it's misleading to suggest DHL and bmir are currently recruiting, they may have been selecting recently but I suggest you will not get a job with them in the short-term. I'm in the hold pool (along with several others I know) for bmir but there is no indication at all if/when we will get the long awaited call for a place on a TR. If we do get called forward then presumably someone else gets an indefinite wait in the pool: they took 6 FOs last year.

I got the following from DHL in October.
"...we do not have any vacancies at present and we already have candidates in a holding pool for 2009, ....."

Add to that the threat of redundancy looming over me in my current job and I think the doom and gloom on here is very real: please everyone think carefully before you commit.

[Blindside]

Morality?

I think the morality call is a tough one. A bit of adversity is character building.

If you have made some wrong decisions, world events have turned against you etc and bankruptcy is your only option to relieve the never ending stress, then OK. If you planned bankruptcy as an easy option all along (or early in your training) then hopefully you will be found out and it will be a weight around your neck for future employment chances for years to come.

As somebody has already pointed out, that money may be written off for the individual but it will impact someone in the economy even if it is only the shareholders in the lending institutions. So again it is the investors who get hit.

On the flip side, if the supposedly brilliant brains did not see this coming why should the individuals carry the can? The top boys can waste or lose $billions and it is the steady and sensible who end up carrying the can in terms of higher taxes and lower interest on their hard earned and post tax savings.

UK PLC is a mess. A massive public sector, a huge underclass who expect everything whilst contributing nothing and costing us a fortune, a government out of touch and ideas......

Happy New Year!

[BEagle]

The mortgage I took out in 1984 will be paid of in full next year. It was for £34K.

Since then we've seen the boom and slump at least twice, yuppie-era Thatcher greed when little gits in shiny suits and 3-ser BMWs played at being estate agents.....

If you assume the real value increased by 5% per annum, then (1.05)**25 = 3.386 and the house should now be worth £115136. Actually it isn't - it's around £185K in today's market. Which is about 7% per annum. But idiots who thought that the ridiculously high prices for 'property' were the key to their loadsamoney wealth simply wouldn't face the reality of a bubble which was bound to burst - and yet hadn't politicians stated categorically that they would never allow 'boom and bust; again?

The problem is ready access to credit for those who cannot afford it. Kids don't save pocket money for iPods or other overpriced electric toys, some idiotic store gives them a crdit card and off they go. Their debts get bigger and bigger and they think that paying off the interest is sufficient....

That attitude has to change. One way would be to require all credit card bills to be settled at the end of the following month. As happens in Germany, for example. My German colleagues couldn't believe that, having bought a €2500 air ticket with a Visa card I was only required to pay off £25 when the bill came, although the balance would then attract interest. That simply dosen't happen in Germany!

Even Thatcher said that you can't have something which you can't afford.

As for airline training; well, aptitude and personal quality testing, cadet selection and airline-specific MPL training against a bond may be the way ahead. Huge numbers of utter no-hopers who you would never want on an airline flight deck have gone through self-sponsored training and, even worse, TR training and yet, surprise surprise, no-one actually wants them because they lack the required personal qualities..

[rogerg]

Oh you called it did you WWW?

You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.

Hey WWW, is this true?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

cc2180 wrote:

Oh you called it did you WWW?

You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.

I went totally publicly BEAR on PPRuNe in Sept '07. Prior to that I had been making bearish noises since February '07 when I sold my house to rent one because of the impending house price crash. So bearish noises for 22 months and totally bear for 16 months. Anyone listening to me need not be graduating into this mess - so yes, I did call it cc2180.

My Golden Age comments were for 2005. That's about to be 4 years ago. I don't mind being held to my record. But hold me to my actual record instead of a fictional one.

For a taste of what I was saying - this might suprise newbies here - read this, April 1st 2005:


http://www.pprune.org/1821791-post18.html

Things really have picked up since the end of last summer. I now can happily look back at the guys I started PPL instructing with in 1999 and they have ALL got airline jobs now. May have taken a while to get the last ones over the fence post 9/11 but now its happened and happened fast. The later ones have had multiple offers to choose from even.

Virtually all the proper AOC airlines in the UK are hiring at the moment. I've heard that most of the second tier Air Operators are also hiring as a result. Often with rapidly falling hours/experience requirements.

There is an air of 1996 in the wind. The major airline recession of the 1990 - 1994 period was over. After years of no movement airlines starting hiring again.

Which led to a sudden influx of interest in flight training and suddenly everyone was clamouring to get their licenses issued/re-validated. By 1997 there were loads of people chasing still only a realtively few jobs. By late 1998 hiring had dried up the pool and by 1999 people were coming straight out of school into the jets with seemingly regular success. 2000 and 2001 were brilliant for hiring until Sept.

There are a lot of people out there who have trained and got nowhere in the last 4 years who will re-enter the market as it improves. There are lots currently in training. [B]Maybe 2 years from now thing will get back to a 1999 situation for low time Wannabes. (edit in Dec '08 - I think the April 2007 hiring market did turn out to be just as good as 1999)

Just after Sept 11 2001 I wrote at length that timing was key to this business. I suggested it was simply not worth trying to train and enter the business for at least 4 years. To do so would invite the misery of pouring money into license revalidation whilst collecting nothing more than rejection letters from airlines. Years of such misery has broken the will of many an aspiring pilot.

At least now, with real, sustained, robust movement in hiring - you have the happy light at the end of the tunnel to keep you morale up.

The terms and conditions are certainly worse than only 5 years ago. Then you joined an airline and signed a 3 yr bond and that was it. You were an FO. Now you are likely to sign a longer bond, paid for by a loan from your bank and be on a reduced salary for the privilige.

Hopefully that will all disappear in coming years as airlines compete to hire the available competent labour. Well - one can only hope

Cheers

WWW

[cc2180]

I went totally publicly BEAR on PPRuNe in Sept '07

oh really? 10 months before, in the middle of their course you decided to suggest it might not be prudent to train now.

wow, im impressed. Where are all the wannabes thanking you for going out of your way to warn them off finishing training i wonder?

Training doesnt start immediately. By the time wannabes read about your golden age and had set the wheels in motion for their training, it was 2006. A year later you go public telling them to stop? Interesting.

Funny how often you post these days about the one time you maybe mentioned somewhere that a possibility of a recession could be greeting them upon graduation.

Big pat on the back to you. You spend the majority of your free time looking for it on an internet forum, so ill just give you the big round of applause that you try hard for.



I feel sorry for these people; they are completely screwed, and all they get is you rubbing their faces in it.

Next years graduates you can crow to, but not this years.

[PosClimb]

Secondly, when the downturn ends - and it will - the pilot shortage will be seen again.

Can anyone please explain to me why any kind of pilot hiring has to be synonymous with the phrase "pilot shortage"???

Why can't it just be: "The airlines are hiring some pilots."

Why is that always turned into: "There is a pilot shortage".

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

cc2180 said On the 6th November 2007; http://www.pprune.org/3684564-post1058.html

Hi all

First timer here, off to my phase 2 in a couple of weeks. Very excited.

Was just wondering, during phase 3, if its a good thing that you have family/friends in the industry, or to try not to mention it?

Also, it says, Dress Code: Suit, or smart casual....but everyone puts on a suit right?

Thx

I'd been bearish most of 2007 and totally bear for months by the time you asked the question above. So I wasn't too late to have offered you a timely warning - did you take heed I wonder?

I'm not rubbing people faces in anything. I've been laughed at ridiculed and called a doom monger for the last 18 months not for my own glory but as part of a free service to Wannabes.

What you might not appreciate is the fact they I am plenty worried about my own airline and my own job. I have taken steps to reduce my spending, pay off debts and generally batten down the hatches. I am highly sceptical that my own employment will continue unassailed by the coming tsunami of airline failures and cutbacks. If I lose my job I'm just as stuffed as a 200hr Wannabe. Probably more so. I'm not writing from the comfort of retirement here.

When things flatten off then turn up I very much look forward to writing about it again.

WWW

[cc2180]

hahaha, knew it.

Typical troll behaviour from someone with nothing to answer with. Go trawling through old posts to try to find dirt. Really says alot about you.

Yeah I took the advice, and my postings arent fuelled by personal regret.

The whole point was about recent graduates who started upon your advice and now are being crow'ed to by your very self.

A point which you so conveniently skip.

not for my own glory but as part of a free service to Wannabes

Reading all the irrelevant trumpet posts you've made over the last few months, im pretty sure noone believes that. Maybe even yourself if you're honest.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I don't see how your timing works. A recent grad following my advice in 2005 would have needed to have spent 3 years in the training system. Anyone starting training over the last 22 months and reading my views would have read nothing other than caution, extreme caution or end-of-the-world caution.

Sorry I didn't predict a house price crash, serious recession and the oil peak even earlier than I did but I only do this as a hobby as most of the time I'm an airline pilot.

I don't need to crow about anything but when people have a go at you or claim you predicted $200 oil then it grates a little.

WWW

[TwinAisle]

Can anyone please explain to me why any kind of pilot hiring has to be synonymous with the phrase "pilot shortage"???

Why can't it just be: "The airlines are hiring some pilots."

Why is that always turned into: "There is a pilot shortage".

To clarify - there is always a need for a drip feed of pilots, to cover retirements and the usual gentle growth. In the background, there is a pool of available pilots who can fit the jobs. Over the last few years, we've seen a very large growth in commercial aviation - particularly from the low cost sector, and in Asia - which has put things out of kilter - leading to a pilot shortage. Trust me on this, having done the jobs I have done, it was pretty tough to get qualified candidates a few months back.

The training schools geared up to fill the hole - nature and the market abhorr vacuums after all. Now, as demand for pilots is falling, and falling FAST - it is going to get harder for a 300 hr pilot to get that first position.

Sorry, but that is a fact. WWW to his credit spotted this some time ago, and applied the adage of "what goes up...." This industry is notoriously cyclic, and we have been seeing some worrying signs for a while now. It will pick up again, it always does, but I am not prepared to put a bet on when.

On a different point - I don't see the point of people laying into WWW on here - I am reminded of a friend of mine who uses the expression "do you want to hear what you want to hear, or do you want the truth".... It must be incredibly frustrating to be part way through training and realising that the industry is shrinking around you, but there is no point shooting the messenger.... many of my friends work in various parts of this industry, in various roles and at various levels, and do you know what? We're not looking forward with much anticipation right now....

TA

[cc2180]

Yes, and I dont mean to be rude. He does give some good advice.
But the sheer volume of "told you so" posts has to be reduced. No matter how satisfying they may be to type.

It doesnt help them as they were already doomed before they started, before the warnings were posted. You cant blame them or accuse them of stupidity.

Unfortunately training takes longer to finish than an economy takes to go under.

Luckily I didnt get in on first attempt, else I would be screwed too. I can admit that. But when I come out of the pipeline in ~2 years, some of that timing is down to pprune for which I am grateful. Rest is luck!

[chrisbl]

I'm afraid you'll find that the modern Skipper is often spending his day in the flightdeck with FO's who owe more to the bank than he does and they have only the banger in the car park and their license to their name. Your hard-ass attitude wouldn't be popular.

I am sure it would not but then I come from a profession which is sufficiently hard assed to stop me working at my full potential if I did go insolvent.

So my personal choices include a very conservative approach to debt.

The real villains are the airlines who with their co-conspirators the FTOs are are letting a lot of people who are unsuitable for the airlines go in for the training with little hope of getting a job. They know the know the aviation business so they know full well what they are doing.

The banks' job on the other hand is to lend money not run airlines. So dont blame them for the lending.

If no one went to any FTO next year the FTOs would be asking the airlines for help. The airlines would be in a real quandry because without helping, the future training capacity would disappear and the airlines might have to bring back their own training schemes.

That would be a good thing; admittedly there would be fewer in training but they would be selected as the most employable by the airline, not as the ones who can borrow the money easiest as seems the current FTO philosophy.

[no sponsor]

The reality was that there was no 'Golden Age' for the majority of wannabes. If you were in CTC, then yes. If you were lucky at FTE/OATS and your name was put forward for the SSP schemes then yes. On the whole, there are plenty of people I know who didn't get jobs. Don't be deluded.

And the market has changed again. In the last recession, the experienced guys got hired. Now, I reckon you've got more chance if you are inexperienced. Ryanair are only interviewing those without experience. I see Thomas Cook has taken on CTC cadets, as are EZY. My friends who were made redundant from XL are having no such luck. 2000hrs of NG time would have had you at the front of the queue in the last downturn, now it seems to count for nothing.

The industry is buggered. That should tell you not to count on the profession as a career.

[TwinAisle]

The real villains are the airlines who with their co-conspirators the FTOs are are letting a lot of people who are unsuitable for the airlines go in for the training with little hope of getting a job.

Uh? How much say do you think most airlines have in selecting recruits for the FTOs?

The rest of your post made inherent sense, IMHO. The airlines I know will react to a pilot shortage when they need to, and right now, that is not now.

TA

[clear prop!!!]

I don't need to crow about anything but when people have a go at you or claim you predicted $200 oil then it grates a little.

I take it that's aimed at me!

For the record I NEVER said that you had predicted $200 a barrel by Xmas! And for the record it was NOT you.

I simply stated that our resident financial experts (we have plenty), had predicted $200 by Xmas and its now about $37. The post is there (or was) by someone else, but I can't find it, but I remember it well as will others.

You only predicted $150 by Xmas, but as your fan club pointed out that meant ANY time BEFORE xmas!..so, I stand corrected and offer my humble and sincere apologies for my earlier ref to that.

Don't take it that every post is aimed at you or we might get the impression
you have a ego problem, and ...I'm not saying you have.

Chill out, it's the season of good will

[Blindside]

And I take it that was aimed at me.....

Clear Prop - what are you trying to belittle me for? Who has the ego problem???

WWW was correct, or as close to make any difference.

There seems to be a number of posters who appear to be quite smug/bitter/annoyed. WWW doesn't seem to be one of them. That's how I read it anyway.

I don't understand the attempted kicking he gets on here.

[clear prop!!!]

Blindside,....Sorry, un-called for and nothing personal

regards

CP

[Blindside]

cheers, appreciate it. Merry Xmas