Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Like the glass of superb Giessen Estate sauvignon blanc winking at me from the kitchen table I am perfectly chilled.
Everyone who contributes here has me sincere thanks. You make this what it is.
WWW
Everyone who contributes here has me sincere thanks. You make this what it is.
WWW
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Uh? How much say do you think most airlines have in selecting recruits for the FTOs?
The FTOs and the airlines go hand in hand and the systems works for both of them, the FTOs have all the trainees coming in and the airlines take their pick with no little cost to them. Free pilots who have forked out a fortune to pay for the opportunity for an interview with no guarantee of a job.
In other areas this would be described as a scam.
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I think that anyone who takes any of the advice/guidance/opnion offered on Proone as the reason (not) to spend tens of thousands of pounds is rather naive. I would also say that anyone offering such advice should be treat with a degree of scepticism.
Imagine a world where nobody could borrow more than £10,000 unless it was for a house on a mortgage and no home owner had any excess equity. (this is the world of 2009)
£75k for an Integrated course followed by a £20k Boeing/Bus type rating would be the sole preserve of those with millionaire parents.
In this brave new world what would airline eventually have to do once again?
The credit crunch could be the best thing that ever happened to Wannabes..
WWW
£75k for an Integrated course followed by a £20k Boeing/Bus type rating would be the sole preserve of those with millionaire parents.
In this brave new world what would airline eventually have to do once again?
The credit crunch could be the best thing that ever happened to Wannabes..
WWW
Scourge of Bad Airline Management!
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I think your argument only holds water here, ChrisBL, if airlines were out there, tapping people on the shoulder and saying "go train as a pilot, pay for it, and we'll definitely give you a job".
It doesn't work like that. The FTOs are businesses who have reacted to perceived need and made money out of the climbing market. They have geared up to produce a lot of pilots to fill that need, and have attracted a lot of people to their courses who, had they been presented to the airlines first, would have been discouraged from spending their money (trust me, I've seen the CVs...)
The airlines then pick and choose from the people who present themselves for jobs.
If there has been any mis-selling, I would suggest the people responsible are the pushier FTOs, not the airlines.
In time, if the pilot supply dries up, and/or the quality drops, then the airlines will act, perhaps even re-introducing sponsorships etc. But right now, why should they bother? Sorry - commercial reality there....
TA
It doesn't work like that. The FTOs are businesses who have reacted to perceived need and made money out of the climbing market. They have geared up to produce a lot of pilots to fill that need, and have attracted a lot of people to their courses who, had they been presented to the airlines first, would have been discouraged from spending their money (trust me, I've seen the CVs...)
The airlines then pick and choose from the people who present themselves for jobs.
If there has been any mis-selling, I would suggest the people responsible are the pushier FTOs, not the airlines.
In time, if the pilot supply dries up, and/or the quality drops, then the airlines will act, perhaps even re-introducing sponsorships etc. But right now, why should they bother? Sorry - commercial reality there....
TA
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Well i for one look out for WWW posts, he always seems on the ball (unfortunately), it's put a hold on my attempts to get into this job
Last edited by david_gannon; 28th Dec 2008 at 23:01. Reason: edit a terrible spelling mistake
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The re-introduction of airline sponsorship. Talk of this thing called MPL. Hm.
I'll be honest. In the context of other research into the aviation industry, and the wider economic outlook in general, I too have found WWW's comments extremely helpful, they might even save me from needlessly spending cash in the near future!
If it all sounds a bit laboured, well, having witnessed it myself first hand, I can concur that boundless youthful optimism in the face of stark fact can need a bit of a bludgeoning to create some balance in opinion.
Sniping at the messenger is so unhip, baby.
Regards,
JR
I'll be honest. In the context of other research into the aviation industry, and the wider economic outlook in general, I too have found WWW's comments extremely helpful, they might even save me from needlessly spending cash in the near future!
If it all sounds a bit laboured, well, having witnessed it myself first hand, I can concur that boundless youthful optimism in the face of stark fact can need a bit of a bludgeoning to create some balance in opinion.
Sniping at the messenger is so unhip, baby.
Regards,
JR
that boundless youthful optimism in the face of stark fact can need a bit of a bludgeoning to create some balance in opinion.
Nail - head.
Thank you, WWW
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WWW;
For me that quote sums up the beauty of what the downturn could bring. In an ideal world the flight training bubble will have burst. Not enough students/output from training because of no credit - so the airlines have to step in.
However it wont be until there is a smoking hole in the ground when an incompetent student slips thru the system because of their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...
The credit crunch could be the best thing that ever happened to Wannabes..
However it wont be until there is a smoking hole in the ground when an incompetent student slips thru the system because of their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...
PPRuNe Handmaiden
Well, there's a damaged Airbus because a student of marginal capabilities slipped through the net. Mind you, he did slip through a lot of nets that should have picked up his deficiencies well before the landing incident.
See R&N for more info.
See R&N for more info.
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However it wont be until there is a smoking hole in the ground when an incompetent student slips thru the system because of their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...
their ability to pay, that the airline accountants will finally take notice...
Last edited by rogerg; 29th Dec 2008 at 07:03.
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FTO's who use a selection procedure, generally get it right and those who may not make the grade are weeded out early.
However the law of averages will always kick in and some will struggle through the course or may even fail even after selection.
Many out there believe that the ability to pay gets you the job, which is a load of "BULL.....".
The only sector not using a selection procedure is the Modular route which is one of the reasons the CAA are looking to regulate this market.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer.
SSTR students are selected by the Airline through their scheme or that of a third party, not perfect but mostly proven to reduce the risk to the client and the airline doing the training.
The illusion that SSTR students only have to turn up and pay for their course is laughable as any reputable training establishment or airline would quickly loose credibility with their clients / passengers and insurers, if that were the case.
Ryanair selection only accepts about 30-40% of applicants (Lower now as many more apply), and the other B.737 and A.320 operators have similar levels of acceptance.
This weeds out the possible training risks, be they from Modular or Integrated backgrounds.
I fly regularly with Modular and Integrated students, and will NOT enter into the who's best debate here.
How much you pay for training is also NOT an issue, however what really matters is the STANDARD of training received, and the Level attained by the student.
There are many un-employed pilots out there at the moment, but most will be back in employment over the next 18 months, providing they look globally and do not stick to home ground.
Things will get worse in 2009 but the upturn will start to appear in 2010, so anyone entering training now will be coming out into a better market post 2010.
The company I work for has a full holding pool which contains a full spectrum from 150 hour cadets to experienced pilots, but the future for them is good as new aircraft are arriving soon.
This may mean that in late 2009 the pool will be empty, and may need topping up.
Aviation has never been a secure career, the graveyard is full of airlines PAN AM, TWA, Caledonian, Laker, Dan Air, XL, Zoom to name a few.
But for those of us in the Job, its like a drug that we have to be going back to for more and more.
That office in the sky is hard to get, even harder to keep these days, but hard work will get you that job.
However the law of averages will always kick in and some will struggle through the course or may even fail even after selection.
Many out there believe that the ability to pay gets you the job, which is a load of "BULL.....".
The only sector not using a selection procedure is the Modular route which is one of the reasons the CAA are looking to regulate this market.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer.
SSTR students are selected by the Airline through their scheme or that of a third party, not perfect but mostly proven to reduce the risk to the client and the airline doing the training.
The illusion that SSTR students only have to turn up and pay for their course is laughable as any reputable training establishment or airline would quickly loose credibility with their clients / passengers and insurers, if that were the case.
Ryanair selection only accepts about 30-40% of applicants (Lower now as many more apply), and the other B.737 and A.320 operators have similar levels of acceptance.
This weeds out the possible training risks, be they from Modular or Integrated backgrounds.
I fly regularly with Modular and Integrated students, and will NOT enter into the who's best debate here.
How much you pay for training is also NOT an issue, however what really matters is the STANDARD of training received, and the Level attained by the student.
There are many un-employed pilots out there at the moment, but most will be back in employment over the next 18 months, providing they look globally and do not stick to home ground.
Things will get worse in 2009 but the upturn will start to appear in 2010, so anyone entering training now will be coming out into a better market post 2010.
The company I work for has a full holding pool which contains a full spectrum from 150 hour cadets to experienced pilots, but the future for them is good as new aircraft are arriving soon.
This may mean that in late 2009 the pool will be empty, and may need topping up.
Aviation has never been a secure career, the graveyard is full of airlines PAN AM, TWA, Caledonian, Laker, Dan Air, XL, Zoom to name a few.
But for those of us in the Job, its like a drug that we have to be going back to for more and more.
That office in the sky is hard to get, even harder to keep these days, but hard work will get you that job.
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Airline accountants won't put a stop to low quality/experience recruits, it will be the airline insurers who will do that. They will see a trend for claims developing and will look deeper at what has changed over the last 10 years.
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"The only sector not using a selection procedure is the Modular route which is one of the reasons the CAA are looking to regulate this market.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer."
Given that modular students have passed the same tests to the same standard as integrated students and have more flying experience it seems a bit harsh to use perjorative descriptions like " 'Do it on the cheap' types" and then draw the conclusion you do.
Don't forget that airlines have the option to use selection procedures before they hire pilots, and that selection at that point should be more effective than predictive selection, carried out before a cadet has started flying. You'd be better employed asking why the airline selection procedures aren't working.
AFAIK the CAA are not "looking to regulate this [modular] market" any more than they do, they are in any case bound by EASA FCL rules. If they were in any way motivated to improve the current system they could, however produce decent ground exams and an online booking service.
It is more likely that these "Do It On The Cheap" types will not have the same level of skills as some Modular and Integrated students, and could be seen as more of a training risk to a future employer."
Given that modular students have passed the same tests to the same standard as integrated students and have more flying experience it seems a bit harsh to use perjorative descriptions like " 'Do it on the cheap' types" and then draw the conclusion you do.
Don't forget that airlines have the option to use selection procedures before they hire pilots, and that selection at that point should be more effective than predictive selection, carried out before a cadet has started flying. You'd be better employed asking why the airline selection procedures aren't working.
AFAIK the CAA are not "looking to regulate this [modular] market" any more than they do, they are in any case bound by EASA FCL rules. If they were in any way motivated to improve the current system they could, however produce decent ground exams and an online booking service.
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How about australia ???
hey ppl , am a newbie here .. have read this thread at a glance.. but was just wondering am a currently doing my ppl in australia melbourne , and am planning to do my ATPL Theory by the end of 2009 ... wat would be the market condition like in 2010 and around that point in time .. to work as an instructor or to work as crop-duster ..
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In reply to your post Alex
The number of hours is NOT indicative of the quality of a pilot, in fact the reverse can be easily said and from experience in training I can support that statement.
You will find that the CAA are looking towards those who have completed their training outside the EU where they are less likely to maintain the European standards.
I see by you posts that you are connected with Bristol GS, and your localised experience may be different.
However I stand by my previous statements.
The number of hours is NOT indicative of the quality of a pilot, in fact the reverse can be easily said and from experience in training I can support that statement.
You will find that the CAA are looking towards those who have completed their training outside the EU where they are less likely to maintain the European standards.
I see by you posts that you are connected with Bristol GS, and your localised experience may be different.
However I stand by my previous statements.
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Ah, I see. Sorry, I thought you were just comparing JAA modular with integrated. Yes, you're right. EASA are likely to restrict training outside the EU. Paradoxically, this is most likely to affect the large integrated schools like OAA that do a large part of their training in the US with FAA licensed instructors.
What we find is that the selected integrated students are a more homogenous product, which makes them attractive to airlines. Modular students, which used to be called self-improvers, are much more diverse with some very good pilots coming through and also some who are not so good.
What we find is that the selected integrated students are a more homogenous product, which makes them attractive to airlines. Modular students, which used to be called self-improvers, are much more diverse with some very good pilots coming through and also some who are not so good.
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I think your argument only holds water here, ChrisBL, if airlines were out there, tapping people on the shoulder and saying "go train as a pilot, pay for it, and we'll definitely give you a job".
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On that argument, are our secondary schools guilty of not managing expectations of their pupils? Does the Law Society make it clear that you can do all the exams you want, you may never become a barrister? Play football if you like, but guess what, your chances of playing for Man Utd are pretty slim?
Life ain't fair. There are few certainties, other than death and taxes. Anyone who thinks that getting the ATPL guarantees them a job on the flight deck, irrespective of their personal attributes is being frankly naive. I know quite a few unemployed MBAs, barristers who can't get tenancy, gifted musicians who work in Tesco.
I get bored looking at pilot CVs where the overwhelming message is "I have passed the exams, my FTO says I am fab, you MUST give me a job". I am not sure that any DFO would want to inflict some of these folks on their colleagues....
TA
Life ain't fair. There are few certainties, other than death and taxes. Anyone who thinks that getting the ATPL guarantees them a job on the flight deck, irrespective of their personal attributes is being frankly naive. I know quite a few unemployed MBAs, barristers who can't get tenancy, gifted musicians who work in Tesco.
I get bored looking at pilot CVs where the overwhelming message is "I have passed the exams, my FTO says I am fab, you MUST give me a job". I am not sure that any DFO would want to inflict some of these folks on their colleagues....
TA