cc2180 wrote:
Oh you called it did you WWW?
You mean you called it 2 years ago to stop people graduating into this? No. The wannabes who are worst affected by this recession (recent graduates) are the same people who read your statements about the "golden age" of the wannabe.
I went totally publicly BEAR on PPRuNe in Sept '07. Prior to that I had been making bearish noises since February '07 when I sold my house to rent one because of the impending house price crash. So bearish noises for 22 months and totally bear for 16 months. Anyone listening to me need not be graduating into this mess - so yes, I did call it cc2180.
My Golden Age comments were for 2005. That's about to be 4 years ago. I don't mind being held to my record. But hold me to my actual record instead of a fictional one.
For a taste of what I was saying - this might suprise newbies here - read this, April 1st 2005:
http://www.pprune.org/1821791-post18.html
Things really have picked up since the end of last summer. I now can happily look back at the guys I started PPL instructing with in 1999 and they have ALL got airline jobs now. May have taken a while to get the last ones over the fence post 9/11 but now its happened and happened fast. The later ones have had multiple offers to choose from even.
Virtually all the proper AOC airlines in the UK are hiring at the moment. I've heard that most of the second tier Air Operators are also hiring as a result. Often with rapidly falling hours/experience requirements.
There is an air of 1996 in the wind. The major airline recession of the 1990 - 1994 period was over. After years of no movement airlines starting hiring again.
Which led to a sudden influx of interest in flight training and suddenly everyone was clamouring to get their licenses issued/re-validated. By 1997 there were loads of people chasing still only a realtively few jobs. By late 1998 hiring had dried up the pool and by 1999 people were coming straight out of school into the jets with seemingly regular success. 2000 and 2001 were brilliant for hiring until Sept.
There are a lot of people out there who have trained and got nowhere in the last 4 years who will re-enter the market as it improves. There are lots currently in training. [B]Maybe 2 years from now thing will get back to a 1999 situation for low time Wannabes. (edit in Dec '08 - I think the April 2007 hiring market did turn out to be just as good as 1999)
Just after Sept 11 2001 I wrote at length that timing was key to this business. I suggested it was simply not worth trying to train and enter the business for at least 4 years. To do so would invite the misery of pouring money into license revalidation whilst collecting nothing more than rejection letters from airlines. Years of such misery has broken the will of many an aspiring pilot.
At least now, with real, sustained, robust movement in hiring - you have the happy light at the end of the tunnel to keep you morale up.
The terms and conditions are certainly worse than only 5 years ago. Then you joined an airline and signed a 3 yr bond and that was it. You were an FO. Now you are likely to sign a longer bond, paid for by a loan from your bank and be on a reduced salary for the privilige.
Hopefully that will all disappear in coming years as airlines compete to hire the available competent labour. Well - one can only hope
Cheers
WWW