Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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How many will graduate from the Integrated schools this year? 200?
Apparently 20% of all fATPLs are Integrated (if u believe FLYER); therefore that would mean 2400 modular per yr.
= 3000 fATPLS per yr!!!
GOOD LUCK!
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Wow! 3000!!!!!!!!! That must be on the high side??? Either way it's going to be tough out there. Factor in all the experienced pilots coming back onto the market from insolvent airlines and it gets even harder (LTE only this morning).
I agree with the others who have talked about a fall in the numbers training, surely with credit all the harder to obtain the numbers training will decrease as finance cannot be obtained.
The drop in numbers will take a little while to filter through though so when things pick up there is still going to be quite a long queue waiting for jobs! As ever timing will be everything!
I still blame the short term bonus culture!
I agree with the others who have talked about a fall in the numbers training, surely with credit all the harder to obtain the numbers training will decrease as finance cannot be obtained.
The drop in numbers will take a little while to filter through though so when things pick up there is still going to be quite a long queue waiting for jobs! As ever timing will be everything!
I still blame the short term bonus culture!
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No way are people going to carry on training if there are no jobs to go to so I doubt there will be thousands starting their training without the possibility of a job. Back when I did my PPL and ATPL theory in 2002/2003 I was constantly told there would never be any flying jobs ever again and I was wasting my time. On one set of ATPL exams at Silsoe they just had a small classroom with about ten candidates taking exams.
I think that this recession will be deep and it's going to get far worse. If you are a 250hr FATPL right now you're in a spot of bother. That said the most important part of securing a first flying job is timing. You need to train when things look grim so that you're ready to hit the upswing when it happens.
I think that this recession will be deep and it's going to get far worse. If you are a 250hr FATPL right now you're in a spot of bother. That said the most important part of securing a first flying job is timing. You need to train when things look grim so that you're ready to hit the upswing when it happens.
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You need to train when things look grim so that you're ready to hit the upswing when it happens.
I think the best advice is to time it that you START training when you can actually see things recovering; ie fATPL getting jobs. Its not like in one day we go from no jobs to flood gates open. It takes around 2yrs from the first trickle of fATPLs into airlines to full on recruitment. In those 2 yrs you could quite happily get the training done.
Starting when things look grim is STUPID. Whats to say they still look grim for when you finish, or for the many months/yrs after you finish...
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Right now, I would wait until the class rooms started to empty a little bit and then go in for a big discount. BTW don't pay all of your money up front either, it has been know for guys to loose all of their cash on a failed school, it does happen. Pay-as-you-go, that would be my motto, if the school doesnt like it, find one that does. Times are tough, use it to your advantage.
Remember, as a student, you are also a customer. That is going to carry some more weight than it has done.
Please excuse my crap spelling and grammar, only I cant find my specs tonight and I cant see a bloody thing.
Remember, as a student, you are also a customer. That is going to carry some more weight than it has done.
Please excuse my crap spelling and grammar, only I cant find my specs tonight and I cant see a bloody thing.
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I blame the Americans, for everything. It's no more than they deserve,
Originally Posted by tbavprof
Why? Upset that you're not required to speak German now?
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I agree again with Chris, this started in amerika, the only good thing is bush is on the way out and it is looking good for barry O' barmer. I think Mr McCane has had his chips (so to speak).
I don't understand the quip about speaking german, is this relating to Queenie or the war?????
I don't understand the quip about speaking german, is this relating to Queenie or the war?????
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Right now, I would wait until the class rooms started to empty a little bit and then go in for a big discount. BTW don't pay all of your money up front either, it has been know for guys to loose all of their cash on a failed school, it does happen. Pay-as-you-go, that would be my motto, if the school doesnt like it, find one that does. Times are tough, use it to your advantage.
A large integrated trainning provider at EGHH is now being run by the ex SFT owner.
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Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary delivered a buoyant economic forecast in the face of the global financial crisis.
He insisted that the credit crunch was "good for business" and said his low fares airline would reap the benefits of the financial gloom.
"We are not just looking at a recession but a depression," the colourful businessman said.
Low cost airline sterling has a similar view.
They will open in 2009 63 new routes, main hubs being stockholm and copenhagen.
He insisted that the credit crunch was "good for business" and said his low fares airline would reap the benefits of the financial gloom.
"We are not just looking at a recession but a depression," the colourful businessman said.
Low cost airline sterling has a similar view.
They will open in 2009 63 new routes, main hubs being stockholm and copenhagen.
I'm not persuaded that the involvement of the USA in WWII was anything other than generous and costly. Any walk in a Normandy war cemetery reveals a staggering swathe of American names.
We would not have won without them.
Warnings of schools going bust are quite right. Some will - I guarantee it. Don't let them take your money with it as they sink below the waves.
Now, timing. As I've argued at length and been shot at for doing so this WANNABE business is about timing more than anything else. I got my first job in an airline in 2000 because every airline was hiring like crazy. 2005 and 2006 were vintage years and 2007 had a good first 6 months. 2002, 2003 and the first half of 2004 were bad or very bad.
That was a hiccup.
Sept 11th sent a few EU airlines bust but other expanded very shortly after. In 2002/3 easyJet and Ryanair order 300 new aircraft. Swissair and Sabena went under and many downsized temporarily. But 300 new firm orders meant that most unemployed pilots found new right and left hand seats in short order.
This time it will be totally and utterly different.
IT will.
I promise you.
You HAVE to understand that this is 1990. The stock market has crashed, the banks have nearly collapsed and now the recession, not a dip, is upon us.
To reflect the rest of the economy the airline industry will shrink by 20%.
20% is not Maxjet or some cancelled order or anything less than the failure of some major top 10 UK airlines. Not singular. This will happen in 2009 or early 2010. As such there will be thousands of hugely experienced pilots on the employment market until 2012 at the very very very earliest.
Many of you have no idea how bad things will be, how miserable times can be.
You will find out. There is NO way to avoid swallowing the medicine this time.
If you are just graduating from an Integrated course then you have a massive debt, no prospect of a job for years and your best option is bankruptcy.
Stark. I warned you.
WWW
We would not have won without them.
Warnings of schools going bust are quite right. Some will - I guarantee it. Don't let them take your money with it as they sink below the waves.
Now, timing. As I've argued at length and been shot at for doing so this WANNABE business is about timing more than anything else. I got my first job in an airline in 2000 because every airline was hiring like crazy. 2005 and 2006 were vintage years and 2007 had a good first 6 months. 2002, 2003 and the first half of 2004 were bad or very bad.
That was a hiccup.
Sept 11th sent a few EU airlines bust but other expanded very shortly after. In 2002/3 easyJet and Ryanair order 300 new aircraft. Swissair and Sabena went under and many downsized temporarily. But 300 new firm orders meant that most unemployed pilots found new right and left hand seats in short order.
This time it will be totally and utterly different.
IT will.
I promise you.
You HAVE to understand that this is 1990. The stock market has crashed, the banks have nearly collapsed and now the recession, not a dip, is upon us.
To reflect the rest of the economy the airline industry will shrink by 20%.
20% is not Maxjet or some cancelled order or anything less than the failure of some major top 10 UK airlines. Not singular. This will happen in 2009 or early 2010. As such there will be thousands of hugely experienced pilots on the employment market until 2012 at the very very very earliest.
Many of you have no idea how bad things will be, how miserable times can be.
You will find out. There is NO way to avoid swallowing the medicine this time.
If you are just graduating from an Integrated course then you have a massive debt, no prospect of a job for years and your best option is bankruptcy.
Stark. I warned you.
WWW
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Originally Posted by WWW
I'm not persuaded that the involvement of the USA in WWII was anything other than generous and costly. Any walk in a Normandy war cemetery reveals a staggering swathe of American names.
Oh and I agree, if you are looking for work or starting an integrated course now or in the next year or so you're not in a great position.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 19th Oct 2008 at 22:21.
Lets not head off down the path of debating US involvement in WW2 as its a bit too far off topic even for me.
Instead I recommend reading todays column by Ambrose Evan-Pritchard:
Do our rulers know enough to avoid a 1930s replay? - Telegraph
He is a bear but its a nice summary with some compelling anecdotals and I believe the closing sentiment to be accurate.
Wannabes really need to ignore slowdowns such as Sept11th and learn all about what happened to the airline industry during the 1990 - 1994 period. That will be the best guide to 2008 - 2012. Unfortunately.
Next year a lot of passengers just won't turn up.
WWW
Instead I recommend reading todays column by Ambrose Evan-Pritchard:
Do our rulers know enough to avoid a 1930s replay? - Telegraph
The freight rates for Capesize vessels used to ship grains, coal, and iron ore have fallen 95pc to $11,600 since May, hence the bankruptcy of Odessa’s Industrial Carriers last week with a fleet of 52 vessels. Cargo deliveries dropped 15.2pc at the US Port of Long Beach last month, but that is a lagging indicator.
From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931. “The crisis is now in full swing across the entire world,” said Giulio Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister. “It is hitting the real economy, the productive forces of industry. It’s global, it’s total, and it’s everywhere,” he said.
Italy’s industrial output has fallen 11pc in the last year. Foreign orders have dropped 13pc. But we are all in much the same boat. Europe’s car sales fell 9pc in September (32pc in Spain). US housing starts fell to a 45-year low in September.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund had to rescue...
From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931. “The crisis is now in full swing across the entire world,” said Giulio Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister. “It is hitting the real economy, the productive forces of industry. It’s global, it’s total, and it’s everywhere,” he said.
Italy’s industrial output has fallen 11pc in the last year. Foreign orders have dropped 13pc. But we are all in much the same boat. Europe’s car sales fell 9pc in September (32pc in Spain). US housing starts fell to a 45-year low in September.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund had to rescue...
He is a bear but its a nice summary with some compelling anecdotals and I believe the closing sentiment to be accurate.
Wannabes really need to ignore slowdowns such as Sept11th and learn all about what happened to the airline industry during the 1990 - 1994 period. That will be the best guide to 2008 - 2012. Unfortunately.
Next year a lot of passengers just won't turn up.
WWW
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From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931.
Of course, the effect on the global economy of not shipping iron ore, grain etc around the world does indeed have an impact on the economy, but not in the same way as in 1931.
This chart compares total credit market debt to U.S. GDP.
The average of this ratio over the last 100 years has been around 155%. This ratio peaked first heading into the Great Depression at 260% (after then falling back to 130%) but has now risen to an unprecedented 350%!
This is why this time is going to be so much worse than the 1991 recession.
Highlights from the latest Hayman Advisors letter to clients (courtesy of the FT)
You will keep hearing the lie that the banks are afraid to lend to one another. This is not the case. The fact is that they are not lending to each other because they have run out of money. They have nothing to lend.
WWW
The average of this ratio over the last 100 years has been around 155%. This ratio peaked first heading into the Great Depression at 260% (after then falling back to 130%) but has now risen to an unprecedented 350%!
This is why this time is going to be so much worse than the 1991 recession.
Highlights from the latest Hayman Advisors letter to clients (courtesy of the FT)
How long and deep will this recession be? To develop an educated guess, we must study historical OECD housing busts and their implications for the broader economies and local banking systems. According to a masterful piece by Goldman Sachs Global Economic Team, there have been 24 housing price busts since the 1970’s. Each bust saw at least a 15% real home price decline. The average decline in this sample set is just over 30% with a bottoming after 6 years. Housing busts are generally prolonged experiences with severe economic and banking implications. We believe house prices will drop approx 34% from peak to trough and the economic decline will take at least another 2 ½ years.
The average home price decline of the 24 that were studied was 31% and the average duration was a staggering 25 quarters (just over 6 years)! A few other observations from past housing crisis: 1. Sharp declines in GDP growth (output gaps become deeply negative), 2. GDP growth bottomed several quarters after the busts began, 3. Growth recovered much more slowly but output gaps lagged for longer, 4. There is significant damage in the “Big Five” banking crises (GDP fell 6.6 percentage points and the slowdown lasted for 5 years), 5. Interest rates rose going into the bust and then fell, 6. Credit growth generally slowed (in the current case, credit growth has come to a crashing halt).
We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough. Remember, the capital structures of most of America’s companies have taken on more and more senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred, convertible preferred, trust preferred, and God only knows what else in front of equity.
This means the “equity” piece of the cap structure is enormously positively or negatively leveraged to changes in funding costs and enterprise values. A drop of 70% for the S+P is absolutely possible. Remember, all of the loss estimates we have reviewed have really ignored the coming losses in credit card debt, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, CDS contracts, auto loans, and unsecured personal loans. We are experiencing the global deflationary bust of all time. It will deflate the values of just about all assets.
Anything and everything we own will decline precipitously in value. We are not perma-bears like some others, but we must be realistic about facing this terrible economic environment.
The average home price decline of the 24 that were studied was 31% and the average duration was a staggering 25 quarters (just over 6 years)! A few other observations from past housing crisis: 1. Sharp declines in GDP growth (output gaps become deeply negative), 2. GDP growth bottomed several quarters after the busts began, 3. Growth recovered much more slowly but output gaps lagged for longer, 4. There is significant damage in the “Big Five” banking crises (GDP fell 6.6 percentage points and the slowdown lasted for 5 years), 5. Interest rates rose going into the bust and then fell, 6. Credit growth generally slowed (in the current case, credit growth has come to a crashing halt).
We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough. Remember, the capital structures of most of America’s companies have taken on more and more senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred, convertible preferred, trust preferred, and God only knows what else in front of equity.
This means the “equity” piece of the cap structure is enormously positively or negatively leveraged to changes in funding costs and enterprise values. A drop of 70% for the S+P is absolutely possible. Remember, all of the loss estimates we have reviewed have really ignored the coming losses in credit card debt, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, CDS contracts, auto loans, and unsecured personal loans. We are experiencing the global deflationary bust of all time. It will deflate the values of just about all assets.
Anything and everything we own will decline precipitously in value. We are not perma-bears like some others, but we must be realistic about facing this terrible economic environment.
You will keep hearing the lie that the banks are afraid to lend to one another. This is not the case. The fact is that they are not lending to each other because they have run out of money. They have nothing to lend.
WWW
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At least it's not as bad as the 1970s BBC NEWS | Business | 'It's not as bad as the 1970s' Apparently.