PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 19th Oct 2008, 21:09
  #993 (permalink)  
Wee Weasley Welshman
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 15,059
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I'm not persuaded that the involvement of the USA in WWII was anything other than generous and costly. Any walk in a Normandy war cemetery reveals a staggering swathe of American names.

We would not have won without them.

Warnings of schools going bust are quite right. Some will - I guarantee it. Don't let them take your money with it as they sink below the waves.

Now, timing. As I've argued at length and been shot at for doing so this WANNABE business is about timing more than anything else. I got my first job in an airline in 2000 because every airline was hiring like crazy. 2005 and 2006 were vintage years and 2007 had a good first 6 months. 2002, 2003 and the first half of 2004 were bad or very bad.

That was a hiccup.

Sept 11th sent a few EU airlines bust but other expanded very shortly after. In 2002/3 easyJet and Ryanair order 300 new aircraft. Swissair and Sabena went under and many downsized temporarily. But 300 new firm orders meant that most unemployed pilots found new right and left hand seats in short order.

This time it will be totally and utterly different.




IT will.



I promise you.




You HAVE to understand that this is 1990. The stock market has crashed, the banks have nearly collapsed and now the recession, not a dip, is upon us.

To reflect the rest of the economy the airline industry will shrink by 20%.


20% is not Maxjet or some cancelled order or anything less than the failure of some major top 10 UK airlines. Not singular. This will happen in 2009 or early 2010. As such there will be thousands of hugely experienced pilots on the employment market until 2012 at the very very very earliest.

Many of you have no idea how bad things will be, how miserable times can be.

You will find out. There is NO way to avoid swallowing the medicine this time.


If you are just graduating from an Integrated course then you have a massive debt, no prospect of a job for years and your best option is bankruptcy.


Stark. I warned you.



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