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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:13
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Its all going to be fine, David Milliband has come out of the Cabinet meeting stating that things are 'serious' and that the Cabinet is working 'Hard'.

Fantastic the plastic haired political numpty has finally woken up to reality!

Pretty 'real time' update eh?

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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:18
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I find the turn in discussion here rather interesting. Reams of advice about spending money wisely (ie on flying) and now we're talking about having a flutter on the markets.

My gramps always told me to only invest money in the markets that you wouldn't be bothered about losing. Personally, I wouldn't invest in any financial institution right now; Il'd be looking at something with a little more substance. Then again, I'm risk averse.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:30
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Wise words.

Right now I suspect most view it as a gamble and will only be investing with amounts they are prepared to loose, it's still better odds than getting a job if you are starting an integrated course now though.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:47
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Having been on the other side of 30W for the past week, interesting watching CNN reporting how many (allegedly) Senators and members of Congress had (allegedly) bought shares before the first vote for the $700bn bail out hoping for a large and quick return on investment as markets went sky high...naff gamble that turned out to be...
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:47
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Lurking123

I can see a certain irony. People do make money out of mayhem. Brings back memories of Northern Rock. I was short selling, whilst at the same time my solicitor was finalising a 110% mortgage for a client. Did it all from the same office.

I think most people will see any sort of dealing right now, as an extremely risky business. Particularly as the whole thing is being driven by emotion and the situation is changing by the minute. Your gramps knew a thing or two about trading
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 11:53
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Agreed. To me, hard cash and commodities (eg gold) are the only true guarantee right now. On Saturday I pulled a substantial sum (way above the FSCS limit) out of Icesave and yesterday I did the same with Kaupthing-Edge. Juggling bank accounts is getting rather tiresome.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 12:00
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Its getting hard to find a safe haven. Money has almost become a burden. Tried stuffing the mattress yet?
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 12:19
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The Trouble with British Airways

Channel4 dispatches next monday;

Dispatches: The Trouble with British Airways
Current affairs series. An investigation into British Airways, assessing the airline's reputation following a series of blunders involving price-fixing, mislaid baggage and the troubled opening of Heathrow's Terminal 5
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 12:23
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All of this gold is becoming hard to hide now though. The dog is wondering why i'm now digging holes in the back garden and burying boxes of 'stuff'.
At least 4,000 Kruggerands are fairly easy to hide about the place.


PS, does anyone think my outstanding loans, credit card amounts and overdraft will be at risk? I'd hate to have to move them elsewhere.

So glad I don't have any money or a pension right now.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 12:57
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If the Dispatches program is like the ones they did recently on the banking sector it will be sh*te.... tabloid journalism at its worst... so called experts who have huge issues and chips on their shoulders.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 15:54
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Credit crunch is GOOD for business, says boss of Ryanair | Mail Online

I'm surprised no-one has picked up this one yet? Might be a good excuse to quit the job, take out a 80,000k loan and goto Oxford!

Unless you have the money to lose, regardless of the snippets of positive news, I really don't think integrated is a very sensible option in the present economical climate. And to be honest I think even if you go modular; you probably need to keep some backup plans.

I have friends flying charter and instructing by day and waiting tables by night. But then again they are happy flying, and haven't taken out 80k loans to repay.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 17:57
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L'aviateur

There are times when I really wish MOL would put a sock in his fat gob. Sure, there will be more airlines going bust, but is that reason to celebrate? Is he really the type of businessman we really need in the industry, where all he wants is a disaster. As potential SLF, I find his comments insulting, when he seems to rejoice in the fact people will become poorer and have to fly with him.

I personally would like to poke the **** one in the eye.

No offence to anyone working for him. I just find MOL a dislikeable git. I'm glad he is not my neighbour. If he were, I'd make sure 6 saddle backs crap on his doorstep ever morning.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 17:59
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Don't we all love MOL I bet he can't wait to mop up the business from any further collapses.
He says that people are downtrading but if we are to believe his predictions of a drepression his latest boom in business will be short lived. The majority of the market he is pitching to will soon consider a cheap weekend away as a luxury they can do without, if not already.
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 20:05
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Agreed with everything above re' FR and MOL and...

his latest boom in business will be short lived
IMO He'll be hoovering up the final few pennys before there is a significant drop in air travel and winning a little more brand loyalty on the way. It's going to put them in a better position to weather the recession and to make the most of the up turn when it finally arrives. Yet more good news for wannabees who plan and time the start of their trainning carefully as long as FR continues with it's current trend of recruiting low hour pilots.

(it's also another cheap but effective MOL publicity excercise)
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 22:29
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The upturn could be some way away...
The report indicated that the squeeze on credit, as banks cut back on the amount they lend in order to repair their balance sheets, could endure until beyond 2010, implying that families will still be feeling the effects of the credit crunch far longer than most currently expect.
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
IMF urges Darling to act fast on credit crisis - Telegraph
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 23:01
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The pound will be toast as soon as the mass bank nationalisation is announced and IR's begin to be drastically cut.

Foreign holidays and breaks are going to look much more expensive next year. I suspect that God is going to add to the airlines misery by making the summer of 2009 a 4 month heatwave. Things are so bad that I now believe Mother Nature will turn against UK airlines.

There is absolutely no way that several UK airlines will not go bust in the next 12 months. DO NOT expect to be able to get a job for years.

The present crisis was my worst fear and now it is happening it will take a while for the economic damage to become apparent. Japan's Lost Decade will be the closest guide.

EU wide there will easily be 50 airlines cease trading this winter. Wannabes will be in the job market with all those pilots. It will be 1991 with knobs on.


WWW
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Old 7th Oct 2008, 23:40
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WWW- are you secretly robert preston, the business editor of the BBC?

Totally agree with you.

Earlier this year I was thinking this was just another blip like 9/11. Upturn, Downturn etc. However this is the MOTHER OF ALL DOWNTURNS. It should be classed in a league of its own. We've only just reached tip of the iceberg. The evidence so far;
- Global market collapse; not seen since 1930s era
- UK economic recession - less people flying on holiday, less business premium pax
- Banking/credit crisis - no cash for airlines
- High Oil Prices (at 9/11 it was something stupid like $15 barrel!!)

The only airline which looks like it will win in this situation if flybe. So flybe will be the only hope for wannabes over the next 5yrs or so. flybe have a regional market which is more resistant to recession. most fuel efficient aircraft for their regional model.

I think Ryanair have bitten of more than they can chew. MOL has admitted theyll lose money this winter - but how much!?! Ryanair pilots are on forced unpaid leave...

Watched Branson on TV today. His reply about Virgin Atlantic was a very hesitant 'OK'. If BA are having it hit hard on premium traffic, good luck to virgin!

XL went bust because it ran out of cash. All the uk airlines (except flybe) MUST be losing money, or barely breaking even now. The question therefore is, which airlines have enough cash to ride out this storm??

I suppose the only good news for wannabes is that flybe are obvously going to continue recruiting, and their new MPL is a great opportunity for wannabes to get a shot at an airline career from abinitio.

And WHEN the upturn comes (which wont be for years and years) it will be the mother of all upturns!! Itll be the days of when all you needed was a driving licence to become a BA sponsored cadet!!
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Old 8th Oct 2008, 07:33
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Further evidence that the upturn is upon us:

Four hundred Ryanair pilots and cabin crew will be forced to take one week of unpaid leave this year as the budget airline cuts back flights from Dublin and Stansted.

Ryanair crews must take unpaid leave, says Michael O'Leary - Times Online

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Old 8th Oct 2008, 07:58
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Although the current economic phase is not yet fully played out yet (the collapse of the banking system), but does anyone see evidence of deflation? I do.
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Old 8th Oct 2008, 10:17
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What evidence is that, isn't it a bit early to be calling it? Good for consumers who have cash, not so good for house sellers.

I'm looking forward to a cut in government spending (other than the bail out) as I think they need to be looking to make better use of the money they spend, prune a bit of dead wood out of the NHS and the like etc.
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