Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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UK unemployment jumps most in 17 years as downturn bites - Telegraph
The phoney recession is over. Here comes the real thing.
Flying Squid, this thread is a continuation of a thread by the same title that covered Downturn rather than Upturn. That thread got so long that we moved onto this thread which covers the same topic - wide economic impact on airline Wannabeism.
GasHog, thanks for the searing insight into If your Auntie has testicles and but quite a few people did take note of the barrack room economists on this forum and are very grateful now that they did so. NO wannabe would chose to be completing their commercial training in the last 6 months or the next 18. That much we know from the situation apparent today. I suspect 36 months will eventually prove to be a more fortunate number.
WWW
The phoney recession is over. Here comes the real thing.
Flying Squid, this thread is a continuation of a thread by the same title that covered Downturn rather than Upturn. That thread got so long that we moved onto this thread which covers the same topic - wide economic impact on airline Wannabeism.
GasHog, thanks for the searing insight into If your Auntie has testicles and but quite a few people did take note of the barrack room economists on this forum and are very grateful now that they did so. NO wannabe would chose to be completing their commercial training in the last 6 months or the next 18. That much we know from the situation apparent today. I suspect 36 months will eventually prove to be a more fortunate number.
WWW
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Originally Posted by WWW
With inflation at 5% and prices falling by 13% in nominal anounts on official data the real value reduction is -18% annually. Another year and a bit and you've got 50% falls in real terms.
Deflation = drop in prices = wage cuts = civil unrest.
They'll go for hyper inflation over debt deflation. Widespread debt deflation would expose the fact that the interest can never be repaid on the loans in the system because the only money in the system is the loaned money. The money to repay the interest never existed and never will. That's all a bit heavy on the monetarism so lets look at something more tangible.
On Friday the world banking system stared into the abyss. Stock markets plunged. Over the weekend Gordon photocopied the 1992 Swedish governments homework on How To Solve A Banking Crisis. On Monday the Stock Market soared and the BBC hailed the world was Saved (by Gordon). The FTSE climbed from the 3900's all the way up to the 4500's at heart quickening speed.
Its now Wednesday night. After a day of hard falls the overnight FTSE futures are now back below 3900.
2 trillion billion squillion of bailout plan and three days later the market is back to panic Friday.
Todays record matching unemployment figures measures three months that run up to just BEFORE Lehman Brothers went down. How d'ya think things have gone since then on the old redundancy front?
Tin hats back on chaps.
WWW
ps At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average was down about 733.08 points, or 7.8 percent
pps I'm off with Lady Welshman to Paris for a few days so you'll just have to get by without me until Sunday night - stay safe, and don't have nightmares..
On Friday the world banking system stared into the abyss. Stock markets plunged. Over the weekend Gordon photocopied the 1992 Swedish governments homework on How To Solve A Banking Crisis. On Monday the Stock Market soared and the BBC hailed the world was Saved (by Gordon). The FTSE climbed from the 3900's all the way up to the 4500's at heart quickening speed.
Its now Wednesday night. After a day of hard falls the overnight FTSE futures are now back below 3900.
2 trillion billion squillion of bailout plan and three days later the market is back to panic Friday.
Todays record matching unemployment figures measures three months that run up to just BEFORE Lehman Brothers went down. How d'ya think things have gone since then on the old redundancy front?
Tin hats back on chaps.
WWW
ps At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average was down about 733.08 points, or 7.8 percent
pps I'm off with Lady Welshman to Paris for a few days so you'll just have to get by without me until Sunday night - stay safe, and don't have nightmares..
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but the banks will still be there to keep the wheels turning, they'll also be there to help the recovery on it's way when it eventually arrives...and it will...eventually. We're in a better position now than we were last week.
And I am also getting a bit tired of hearing how Grodon is getting all the credit for a solution the Schweeeds came up with over a decade ago.
ps WWW, make sure you don't book your flights with a 'flaky' airline. (what ever that may be).
And I am also getting a bit tired of hearing how Grodon is getting all the credit for a solution the Schweeeds came up with over a decade ago.
ps WWW, make sure you don't book your flights with a 'flaky' airline. (what ever that may be).
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Don't Worry!
It's all in hand. Here's the good word from inside the system..
BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)
BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)
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Originally Posted by clear prop!!!
Crude oil now $79,.. back where it was a year ago, not quite the $200 predicted by our resident experts!!
Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.
Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %
Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs!
Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.
Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %
Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs!
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The Super Rally on Monday was the first wave of short covering. We go to hell within week or so and that may well be the bottom ( SPX 700ish , we touch down there briefly and then there is a mega short covering rally again big percentages but small numbers now ). The reason the market is continuing to sell off is huge amount of uncertainty as to how bad it will get , they are trying to look forward 6 to 12 months , so the pain we see now wont turn up for a while yet. Oil is falling as the demand for it is falling as people drive and fly less but I would say it doesnt go down by much more as its getting closer to the cost.
So glad i knocked my training on the head, hope those in training or going in do well. As a United Pilot said to me the other night you would have to have a real hard on for flying to train now as when you get a job you will be paid less and less. He tells me that management in his outfit are " renegotiating " their pay back to 1992 levels..
So glad i knocked my training on the head, hope those in training or going in do well. As a United Pilot said to me the other night you would have to have a real hard on for flying to train now as when you get a job you will be paid less and less. He tells me that management in his outfit are " renegotiating " their pay back to 1992 levels..
Last edited by thirtysomething; 16th Oct 2008 at 00:11.
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Well what a weeks it's been so far!
Sadly i must agree
Markets slump as the world prepares for long recession
The phoney recession is over. Here comes the real thing.
Markets slump as the world prepares for long recession
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JohnRaynerDon't Worry!
It's all in hand. Here's the good word from inside the system..
BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)
It's all in hand. Here's the good word from inside the system..
BAIL OUTS? I **** 'EM - The Daily Mash
(because I can't find the smiley for laugh until I cried. Nor the one for laugh until I wee'd a bit)
if i may quote the governator "i havn't laughed so much since my colostomy bag burst in the local swimming pool"
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Another random distraction
I see the Choclit sector is taking a pounding again CADBURY ADR (CBRY.L) -99%
Either that or yahoo need to fix the ticker
Either that or yahoo need to fix the ticker
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I have read some of the statements here and support the :-
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.
b.) Start Training so as to finish in late 2010 when the market will have
improved.
c.) If seeking high levels of Finance have a strong business plan including
a workable backup plan so you can repay the loan if you don't fly.
d.) Don't put off your dream if you can satisfy the above.
WWW you are a doom and gloom merchant, and most here look at your number of posts and will think you know what your talking about, but you are so negative you cant see the wood for the trees.
Out of all this economic mess the Phoenix will arise and we shall see the market upturn soon.
Those failures in the industry whilst very traumatic for the employees, were mostly in companies sailing very close to financial wind.
Banking support was not there when needed, as we have seen that their ethos was "Profit and Bonuses over Peoples Lives" (The I am alright Jack syndrome). How many could have survived if they had obtained support for just a couple more months.
On the upturn front I have a friend starting a jet course next week (Modular and not self funded) and others getting sim rides for entry into a holding pool or two.
I also heard that CTC might just have a couple of pilots leaving their hold pool soon.
In a time of hardship, we should be offering support and constructive advice to wannabees, but leave out the negativity, we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants.
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.
b.) Start Training so as to finish in late 2010 when the market will have
improved.
c.) If seeking high levels of Finance have a strong business plan including
a workable backup plan so you can repay the loan if you don't fly.
d.) Don't put off your dream if you can satisfy the above.
WWW you are a doom and gloom merchant, and most here look at your number of posts and will think you know what your talking about, but you are so negative you cant see the wood for the trees.
Out of all this economic mess the Phoenix will arise and we shall see the market upturn soon.
Those failures in the industry whilst very traumatic for the employees, were mostly in companies sailing very close to financial wind.
Banking support was not there when needed, as we have seen that their ethos was "Profit and Bonuses over Peoples Lives" (The I am alright Jack syndrome). How many could have survived if they had obtained support for just a couple more months.
On the upturn front I have a friend starting a jet course next week (Modular and not self funded) and others getting sim rides for entry into a holding pool or two.
I also heard that CTC might just have a couple of pilots leaving their hold pool soon.
In a time of hardship, we should be offering support and constructive advice to wannabees, but leave out the negativity, we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants.
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Out of all this economic mess the Phoenix will arise and we shall see the market upturn soon.
Some of the advice on this thread is spot on and I would think a few wannabies have saved themselves from disaster.
"On the upturn front I have a friend starting a jet course next week (Modular and not self funded) and others getting sim rides for entry into a holding pool or two."
Holding pool means nothing. If it makes anyone feel better, I'll start a holding pool of my own. No jobs mind, just a holding pool.
"In a time of hardship, we should be offering support and constructive advice to wannabees, but leave out the negativity, we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants."
The only good advice is stay out of the business for now and be patient. That is not Doom and Gloom, its good sound advice, from people who have experienced downturns and unemployment. We never had the benefit of the internet or pprune. If we did, we wouldn't have made so many career mistakes.
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we know its there and they know its there, but don't have to be reminded every day by the DOOM & GLOOM Merchants.
This thread may have become a commentary of what is happening to the economy but that's because it's all part of the path to recovery and better times, or a reminder to those who are thinking about getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt that we are far from being out of the woods, yet.
As has been mention or implied previously, the stock market now is pricing itself for what will happen in the future (or what the majority of investors think will happen in the future) so a slump in the stock market now is an pretty accurate prediction for the economy in the future. Happily this works on the way up too
Hopefully the doom and gloom mongers will be posting the positive signs too but of course it's a lot easier to advise someone when not to spend 70k than it is to tell them when to spend it...that takes real balls!
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I have read some of the statements here and support the :-
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.
a.) Get a degree but only in a subject which will get you into work later.
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The doom and gloom merchants remind the airheads where reality actually lies.
The reason the market is dire is that there is no trust. As there are so many refinancings due on a wide range of companies in the coming year or two, there are a huge range of businesses that will be hit by higher funding costs and lower revenues. It is definitely not going to get better soon, and anyone who thinks it is kids nobody but themselves.
Those who are getting sim rides and type ratings at the moment are the lucky few, but they certainly do not prove that there is a broad market there for the majority of jobseekers in aviation.
I notice today that Jet Airways of India is firing 1,900 of their 13,000 workforce.
Oil
Technically, a gently falling market remains in contango rather than backwardation due to technical factors in the manner in which oil futures are constructed.
The reason the market is dire is that there is no trust. As there are so many refinancings due on a wide range of companies in the coming year or two, there are a huge range of businesses that will be hit by higher funding costs and lower revenues. It is definitely not going to get better soon, and anyone who thinks it is kids nobody but themselves.
Those who are getting sim rides and type ratings at the moment are the lucky few, but they certainly do not prove that there is a broad market there for the majority of jobseekers in aviation.
I notice today that Jet Airways of India is firing 1,900 of their 13,000 workforce.
Oil
- except that the market continues to be in contango. Care to explain why?
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I support the above statement however one must remember that degrees these days are funded by student loans and this combined with a hefty training bill (integrated or modular) is too much for me personally to contemplate. Did a degree work for me? yup it got me the money i needed to attend OAA but it meant 8.5 years of doing something else.
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If anyone is looking for a glimmer of hope, I strongly think in 3-4 years time airlines are going to be short of crew and will have to seriously look to bring back some kind of sponsorship or bond to entice people back to train.
You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.
I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.
My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..
Open to comments!!
You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.
I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.
My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..
Open to comments!!
Last edited by littco; 16th Oct 2008 at 15:17.
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littco
You could be right! My personal thoughts are, about the UK anyway, that it won't be as good as you think as the industry is shrinking. More mergers will take place leaving you with very few options of choice of employers...maybe only open to very experienced or sponsorship MPL only...
You could be right! My personal thoughts are, about the UK anyway, that it won't be as good as you think as the industry is shrinking. More mergers will take place leaving you with very few options of choice of employers...maybe only open to very experienced or sponsorship MPL only...
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Originally Posted by littco
If anyone is looking for a glimmer of hope, I strongly think in 3-4 years time airline are going to be short of crew and will have to seriously look to bring back some kind of sponsorship or bond to entice people back to train.
You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.
I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.
My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..
Open to comments!!
You only have to read all 49 pages of this thread to realise that in the coming years very few people are going to be able to afford to train, it's fact. Hsbc loans canx, house prices falling, shares falling, economys collapsing will all mean wannabes will not have the funding to train. In 2-3years time when the current batch of Wannabes have all finished they will slowly be picked up by airlines as those pilots who now retire at 65 will all leave, FO's who have been stuck in the right seat because there have been no promotions will upgrade and then this will lead to a huge void in the fresh FATPL market. If Airlines aren't carful they could be faced with airplanes and no one to fly them, all because no one could afford to train as they used to be able to.
I may be way off the mark here, but I do see this as a real possibilty. I have read this post with interest from the start and can not see how new wannabes are seriously going to be able to afford to train in the future..I may be missing something but without working full time and training in your free time who is going to have £60k spare?! I think the likes of OAA, Cabair and FTE are all starting to worry. Modular is definately going to benefit, as those that can afford to train will look at cheaper ways, but in the end as numbers fall at the big intergrated schools big airlines are going to have to look at other ways to get crews.
My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..
Open to comments!!
But yes, I do see some form of sponsorships eventually. Would it be for the full ATPL? For some. BA, Virgin? most likely. Easyjet? A long shot. Ryanair? Shoot MOL and you might be talking. A big big if.The only thing I would add, for the Wannabie. Don't forget that a PPL is a perfectly valid and valuable Pilot License and the flying that a PPL does is also valid and valuable. Use that to your advantage.
Otherwise, I think you have it pretty well buttoned up.