Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Sarah is now promoting her company called something like www.thehomesalecahinarranger.co.uk which seems to be some kind of broker who for a %fee arranges to contact all members of a house sale chain and persuade them to drop by a proportionate amount.
Nice idea and it'll probably make her some more money. Which I wouldn't begrudge.
WWW
Nice idea and it'll probably make her some more money. Which I wouldn't begrudge.
WWW
ps oil price is a sideshow.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As I write, the FTSI 100 is 221.9 points down on the day, a 4.1% drop in share values. A reverberation of the Lehman Bros collapse. Oil prices wont help this one. $18, $50 or a $100 a barrel, just doesn't matter. I would say that this is the worst for the banking/financial sector for over a 100 years.
Edit: Anyone want to take a punt on the FTSI dropping through the 5000 barrier today?
Edit: Anyone want to take a punt on the FTSI dropping through the 5000 barrier today?
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 644
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
FTSE 100: The 5000 point is a natural support level so you should hopefully see a reversion back to this point but not immediately due to the momentum wait a week or two and as long as the waters remain calm it should get back to 5000. Nevertheless it's a bad time simply because we're driving in the dark with no lights and all the big players are holding their cards very close to their chest right up to the point where they fold. We can't even have the advantage of seeing it coming! Therefore how can we plan? Makes it very difficult but one things for sure we will be saddled with the repercussions and the public sector will continue growing 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,608
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Takes about 6 weeks for the fuel price to eventually filter through to the pumps.
The oil price is for a barrel of crude - car petrol is but a small part of the barrel and is priced by other aspects as well as the price of a barrel of crude.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There is a very strong probablity that a fall in the oil price is now too late to avoid an impending full blown aviation crisis. When this kicked off 12 months ago I was bearish but did not dream it could get this bad.
WWW the 95% of people that don't "get it" at the moment will "get it" soon enough... a road to Damascus conversion is about to land unpleasantly on their laps.... most of BA's profits come from 2-3 routes.... business class to NY, HK and maybe a bit of Jo'berg..... ain't gonna be many bankers flying around for a couple of years.... this will make 9/11 looks like a walk in the park as there will not be a "V-shaped" recovery.
WWW the 95% of people that don't "get it" at the moment will "get it" soon enough... a road to Damascus conversion is about to land unpleasantly on their laps.... most of BA's profits come from 2-3 routes.... business class to NY, HK and maybe a bit of Jo'berg..... ain't gonna be many bankers flying around for a couple of years.... this will make 9/11 looks like a walk in the park as there will not be a "V-shaped" recovery.
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Posts: 23
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"WWW the 95% of people that don't "get it"
I would think that there is slightly more than 95% who now "get it" unless
you don't read the papers or watch television or have not been reading this thread for the last couple of weeks.
I would agree we can expect to see some big outfits in trouble soon.
If you add to that some lo-co's who are still offering flights for pence then you will some of the larger more expensive carriers further squeezed. You only have to look at the woes of Alitalia and then to Zoom/Exel to see that trouble has moved from being associated to woeful inefficiency to those that are slightly inefficient.
you don't read the papers or watch television or have not been reading this thread for the last couple of weeks.
I would agree we can expect to see some big outfits in trouble soon.
If you add to that some lo-co's who are still offering flights for pence then you will some of the larger more expensive carriers further squeezed. You only have to look at the woes of Alitalia and then to Zoom/Exel to see that trouble has moved from being associated to woeful inefficiency to those that are slightly inefficient.
Last edited by DUXBY; 15th Sep 2008 at 14:31.
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 1,164
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Probably not, but then we're speaking about Italian 'politics'.
I dont think the Uk governemnt would have any money to hand out anyway. Theyve succesfuly pi**ed it against the wall for the last 10 years. The well is dry.
I dont think the Uk governemnt would have any money to hand out anyway. Theyve succesfuly pi**ed it against the wall for the last 10 years. The well is dry.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: UK
Age: 50
Posts: 212
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
back on topic and not withstanding today's plunge after the weekend's business...
the upturn is upon us as follows:
I can remortgage my house at rates from 4.99 to 6.3, variable or fixed as the fancy takes me.
I can also remortgage my Buy to let at 0% initial then 5.99% for a couple of years.
and I can relet my BTL for £200/month more than the current tenants pay too!
Both of these are looking for a not unreasonable 75% LTV...
Given the recent house price dive, not all will have 75% LTV or better, but even so, there are still tracker rates in the late 5's and early 6's for up to 95% LTV.
Recently, fixed rates have dropped and the trackers have gone UP slightly, suggesting the banks see rates falling for the next couple of years. this is supported by the current interbank lending rate being in the mid 4's.
Now then, the question is do I go for the mortgage rates now or hold off for the November drop and do it then?
iX
the upturn is upon us as follows:
I can remortgage my house at rates from 4.99 to 6.3, variable or fixed as the fancy takes me.
I can also remortgage my Buy to let at 0% initial then 5.99% for a couple of years.
and I can relet my BTL for £200/month more than the current tenants pay too!
Both of these are looking for a not unreasonable 75% LTV...
Given the recent house price dive, not all will have 75% LTV or better, but even so, there are still tracker rates in the late 5's and early 6's for up to 95% LTV.
Recently, fixed rates have dropped and the trackers have gone UP slightly, suggesting the banks see rates falling for the next couple of years. this is supported by the current interbank lending rate being in the mid 4's.
Now then, the question is do I go for the mortgage rates now or hold off for the November drop and do it then?
iX
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 715
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No doubt, they'll be bailed out again.
back on topic and not withstanding today's plunge after the weekend's business...
the upturn is upon us as follows:
I can remortgage my house at rates from 4.99 to 6.3, variable or fixed as the fancy takes me.
I can also remortgage my Buy to let at 0% initial then 5.99% for a couple of years.
and I can relet my BTL for £200/month more than the current tenants pay too!
Both of these are looking for a not unreasonable 75% LTV...
Given the recent house price dive, not all will have 75% LTV or better, but even so, there are still tracker rates in the late 5's and early 6's for up to 95% LTV.
Recently, fixed rates have dropped and the trackers have gone UP slightly, suggesting the banks see rates falling for the next couple of years. this is supported by the current interbank lending rate being in the mid 4's.
Now then, the question is do I go for the mortgage rates now or hold off for the November drop and do it then?
iX
the upturn is upon us as follows:
I can remortgage my house at rates from 4.99 to 6.3, variable or fixed as the fancy takes me.
I can also remortgage my Buy to let at 0% initial then 5.99% for a couple of years.
and I can relet my BTL for £200/month more than the current tenants pay too!
Both of these are looking for a not unreasonable 75% LTV...
Given the recent house price dive, not all will have 75% LTV or better, but even so, there are still tracker rates in the late 5's and early 6's for up to 95% LTV.
Recently, fixed rates have dropped and the trackers have gone UP slightly, suggesting the banks see rates falling for the next couple of years. this is supported by the current interbank lending rate being in the mid 4's.
Now then, the question is do I go for the mortgage rates now or hold off for the November drop and do it then?
iX
iX Both your house and Buy-To-Regret have produced a 12% loss in capital (17% in real terms) in the last 12 months and will do the same in the next. We weren't off topic in the first place and your property ramping is laughable.
Thank you.
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"interbank rates in the mid 4s" ha ha ha... which world are you living in?? Not the UK thats for sure.... 3 months LIBOR is this morning 5.54% i.e. still distressed... the 2-3 year SWAP rate which is arguably the most important for the UK mortgage market is at 5.35%.... need to add the banks spread to that which will be at least 100bps at the moment.... and the problem is the banks can't borrow money off anyone anyway so becoming a bit academic... also look at the "up-front fee" you will be paying to remortgage at 4.99%... you are only looking at part of the picture or smoking the good stuff. Keep pissing in the wind my friend.....
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Polymer Records
Posts: 597
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Briefly going off topic; I was always told to work on the aviation job cycle turning approximately every 7 years.
The terrorist attacks in the US was the day when all the aviation jobs went during the last downturn.
Seems that the XL failure is turning out to be the point where the collective penny dropped that there is going to be pretty sparse recruitment for a few years.
XL went bust at 1am on 12 September 2008. That's 7 years and one hour!
How should we extrapolate the autumn 2004 upturn?
The terrorist attacks in the US was the day when all the aviation jobs went during the last downturn.
Seems that the XL failure is turning out to be the point where the collective penny dropped that there is going to be pretty sparse recruitment for a few years.
XL went bust at 1am on 12 September 2008. That's 7 years and one hour!
How should we extrapolate the autumn 2004 upturn?
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: tahiti
Posts: 171
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
LH just bought SN
It is confirmed: LH bought 45% of SN.
SN / Brussels Airlines was a troubled carrier built from the ashes of Sabena. Most of its fleet is made out of leased aircraft, except for the 4 or 5 BAE Avro's they own.
SN managed to turn marginal earnings for 5 consecutive years, amounting to 10-20 million euros a year.
Many people were concerned about SN's survivability through this year as it has a very limited cash flow and the marginal earnings of the previous years could turn into huge losses due to the hundreds of millions higher fuel bill.
Furthermore, the new Low-cost terminal built at BRU for the purpose of attracting Easyjet could have had terrible consequences for a SN on its own.
LH announced plans to further develop SN and make it join Star Alliance.
SN / Brussels Airlines was a troubled carrier built from the ashes of Sabena. Most of its fleet is made out of leased aircraft, except for the 4 or 5 BAE Avro's they own.
SN managed to turn marginal earnings for 5 consecutive years, amounting to 10-20 million euros a year.
Many people were concerned about SN's survivability through this year as it has a very limited cash flow and the marginal earnings of the previous years could turn into huge losses due to the hundreds of millions higher fuel bill.
Furthermore, the new Low-cost terminal built at BRU for the purpose of attracting Easyjet could have had terrible consequences for a SN on its own.
LH announced plans to further develop SN and make it join Star Alliance.