Aviation is cyclic, housing as IX_touring says is cyclic but then again so are the seasons of Spring and Autumn. The bigger picture to those who choose to see is made up of all things cyclic both man made and natural. Therefore we must always view aviation within those terms that a weak economy or panic in other sectors of society will effect us in the aviation recruitment game.
Those that suggest that due to a few variables heading in favourable directions we will be saved doesn't necessarily mean we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, one swallow does not make a summer. Oil, load figures, a few obtainable mortgages don't mean didilly against the backdrop of fear and panic, of which there seem's to be growing amounts in society at present. There are now so many disaster fires that governments have almost if not already played they last and best hand all they can do now is get the dummies guide to excuses book and wait it out. Aviation will also throw off alot of dead wood too during these lean times with weak operations and companies being forced out or made to implement modern systems and corporate processes for the future. This may also entail some of the crews that have had their innings and don't wish to go through this roller coaster anymore to bail out and do a bit of living along other walks in life.
IN the longer term what we are witnessing is the aircrew as employees on a spreadsheet and not the sky gods of yesteryear. This change in image and expectation will drive things further south in coming years. Prestige seems to be an elegeant yet old lady that is clearly a shadow of herself from former years and that's very much how I personally envisage the pilot of the future.
I'm sorry for this little piece probably full of my usual grammatical errors and no doubt thread drifting but some reason I just wanted to add my six pence worth too. I feel very .....