Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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I think that we will see many failures in the UK and Spanish charter airlines. I can see the TUI group in the UK taking measures.
Girjet, for instance, is a failure that went unnoticed but marked the start of the depression we now see in the Spanish charter market.
Girjet, for instance, is a failure that went unnoticed but marked the start of the depression we now see in the Spanish charter market.
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The end of wannabe recruitment for a long time it seems. I seem to recall WWW predicted a major European airline would go under about 6 months ago, he seems to be spot on...yet again.
My heartfelt condolences to those affected in whichever way. Particularly so to those ex-colleagues and friends of mine who work there. Awful news.
WWW
WWW
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The end of wannabe recruitment for a long time it seems. I seem to recall WWW predicted a major European airline would go under about 6 months ago, he seems to be spot on...yet again.
I'd call a major airline any airline that has at least 50 aircraft operating regular routes and hiring 500 pilots.
XL Airways is very similar to Futura.
XL Airways is a joke next to a bigger threat: United.
United reported losses of over 2 billion dollars in Q2. That's eating up their cash pretty fast. Oh by the way, its CEO said that it's because of oil prices... not house prices...
When UA goes down, there will be alot of pilots available... Many will head to Dubai, threatening European pilot jobs.
I'm still not that pessimistic about the market in Europe because though the scheduled airlines and charter airlines markets are quite saturated, other markets such as air taxi are yet to developed. The day the EASA certifies the Eclipse 500 (late 2009?), and the Spectrums come online, orders will rain and a new large segment will be created.
A jet burning 55USG/hour cruising at 350kts... even at today's oil prices it can be affordable to a broad population of business travellers. That trend already started with the Mustang late last year:
Monday, October 1, 2007
First Large Fleet Order for Mustang</SPAN>
Capitalizing on the growing business in Europe and the rest of the world, Cessna Aircraft pulled in an order for 30 of its VLJ Citation Mustangs from an undisclosed European air-taxi operator.
Aviation Today :: First Large Fleet Order for Mustang
The issue with the Mustang is cost: Fuel burn and ownership costs are too high. It's more a mini-Citation than a VLJ.
That's why it's popular among existing operators of Citations but not really among new start-up air-taxi operations that really want to keep cost very low. That's where the Eclipse and the Spectrum are going to revolutionise.
LCY-LBG (London-Paris), 178nm great circle or approx 200nm.
40 minutes and 40 USG of kerosene carrying up to 4 pax.
Even better if you do LCY-LIN (London-Milan)
90 minutes and 85 USG carrying up to 4 pax.
Could turn out to be cheaper than an economy-class ticket if flying with 4!!
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Tragic news.
We are not even winter yet, nor full swing of the recession. This really is the dark ages of the aviation industry.
I fear, just the start of things to come in the next year.
We are not even winter yet, nor full swing of the recession. This really is the dark ages of the aviation industry.
I fear, just the start of things to come in the next year.
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I don't think XL have any cadets at OAA currently, their cadet scheme, IIRC, didn't run last year, so the last intake would have been C Sep 2006, i.e. they will be long graduated, although a years experience doesn't stand them in great sted.
Very bad news for all, however..
Very bad news for all, however..
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speaking to airline management this week and it really is a case of far worse of 9/11. lots of jobs going in airline management at head offices.
basically dont expect recruitment (for experienced pilots) to start again for 1-2yrs. Low hours or abinitio give it atleast 3-4yrs.
have a look back at the recruitment patterns 2004/05 post 9/11 for a better indication of what to expect.
basically dont expect recruitment (for experienced pilots) to start again for 1-2yrs. Low hours or abinitio give it atleast 3-4yrs.
have a look back at the recruitment patterns 2004/05 post 9/11 for a better indication of what to expect.
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further evidence that the upturn is upon us:
Holiday firm XL in administration
BBC NEWS | Business | Holiday firm XL in administration
Holiday firm XL in administration
BBC NEWS | Business | Holiday firm XL in administration
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It's a little bit rich to hear on the radio about people loosing their holidays when there are some people who could be loosing their jobs or even their houses over this. 
My sympathies go to all of them
Gawd knows how long this will set recuitment back, Helimutts 5 years + seems more conceivable than it did yesterday, something really positive needs to happen over the next few years to turn this around and I can't see what it's going to be. This has to be setting up for one of the worst times for pilot recruitment in aviation history.
My sympathies go to all of them
Gawd knows how long this will set recuitment back, Helimutts 5 years + seems more conceivable than it did yesterday, something really positive needs to happen over the next few years to turn this around and I can't see what it's going to be. This has to be setting up for one of the worst times for pilot recruitment in aviation history.
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Geeeewhiz WWW was right after all..... who would have thought it. 
Alitalia stuck in deep talks with unions overnight (that airline is toast as toast can be and will be spewing pilots left right and centre).... then there will be airline consolidation and more jobs losses.
There will be more (and worse) to come .... although we are starting to get into the meat of this downturn now.... suck it up folks this is a cyclical industry and people have been warning about this for c12 months now since the credit markets and access to cheap debt went out of the wind 12 months ago.
If you are halfway through an integrated course now I sincely hope you have a back up plan and didn't bet your parents house on getting a job. If you are doing modular frankly I would put it on hold for at least 12 months or you are just pi**ing money down the drain..... no point having a newly minted IR for the next 12-18 months it is not worth the paper it is printed on.
Alitalia stuck in deep talks with unions overnight (that airline is toast as toast can be and will be spewing pilots left right and centre).... then there will be airline consolidation and more jobs losses.
There will be more (and worse) to come .... although we are starting to get into the meat of this downturn now.... suck it up folks this is a cyclical industry and people have been warning about this for c12 months now since the credit markets and access to cheap debt went out of the wind 12 months ago.
If you are halfway through an integrated course now I sincely hope you have a back up plan and didn't bet your parents house on getting a job. If you are doing modular frankly I would put it on hold for at least 12 months or you are just pi**ing money down the drain..... no point having a newly minted IR for the next 12-18 months it is not worth the paper it is printed on.
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Just out of curiosity why does everyone believe that airlines are going to go for experienced pilots first. Think about it, why hire an experienced pilot who you are going to have to pay comensurate with that experience (at least that's what the pilot would expect) when you can hire someone straight out of flight school and pay them a hell of a lot less to do the same job. Or am I completely wrong on that one 
That said I think any wannabee's who start training now are completely nuts. There will not be many jobs out there for any of you. I personally have decided to give the training a miss. I'm in a stable job at the moment so becoming a pilot in current market conditions is going to have to stay a pipe dream.
That said I think any wannabee's who start training now are completely nuts. There will not be many jobs out there for any of you. I personally have decided to give the training a miss. I'm in a stable job at the moment so becoming a pilot in current market conditions is going to have to stay a pipe dream.
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Or am I completely wrong on that one
You cant just hire someone out of flight school. The airline has sort out safety, crm, typerating, base training, line training etc. That all costs ~£50K
Where as experienced pilots already typerated only have to do a short sim course for sompany SOPs. So whilst an experienced pilot costs maybe 10K more in salary, they are far cheaper in training and far less risk (as student could fail all mentioned courses above = £££££)
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Or am I completely wrong on that one
Most airlines work on pay scales related to time in the company (plus rank and type operated) which means that a company pays a new F/O the same amount regardless of where they come from.
(which incidentally is why the pilot workforce is so immobile and just has to take it up the arse whenever management feels like it)
pb
Last edited by Capt Pit Bull; 12th Sep 2008 at 10:33. Reason: being a chimp
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Just out of curiosity why does everyone believe that airlines are going to go for experienced pilots first. Think about it, why hire an experienced pilot who you are going to have to pay comensurate with that experience (at least that's what the pilot would expect) when you can hire someone straight out of flight school and pay them a hell of a lot less to do the same job. Or am I completely wrong on that one
I know many good guys/gals that i've worked with over the years who are with XL, stressful times for those involved.
Bottom line for guys now with fATPL and <200 hours - make no bones about it, you're not employable for about 4 years+, stark reality, find other work and do your best to keep current.
It will turnaround, I personally have been through this twice before - what will be interesting is how the industry will look in 4-5 years from now...with BIG mergers on boardroom tables now...how many employers will you have to choose from?!?