Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Pensions liabilities are first in line so if BA went belly up the assets would be sold and the pension fund would be first in the queue for the receipts. The pension is thus fairly secure.
Were BA to go bust it would be a disaster for all pilots and all wannabes.
Without their market leading remuneration and terms there would be no incentive for the other airlines to offer their current packages. So all would sag lower. Plus one in every three airline pilots in the UK would be looking for a job and be able to start tomorrow.
You'd better all pray it doesn't happen.
Which it won't.
WWW
Were BA to go bust it would be a disaster for all pilots and all wannabes.
Without their market leading remuneration and terms there would be no incentive for the other airlines to offer their current packages. So all would sag lower. Plus one in every three airline pilots in the UK would be looking for a job and be able to start tomorrow.
You'd better all pray it doesn't happen.
Which it won't.
WWW
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Aceoftheskyes or Tigermajicjohn or whatever name you are using this week, let me explain what has happened, and what is happening. Not because you really care I suspect, but because for the never ending legions of those who simply refuse to understand, it is another opportunity to provide a potted history of the real world.
In 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and even 2000, airlines paid wages that reflected the level of experience they were hoping to attract. For the jet operators their normal source of such experience came from the military, the turboprop operators, and perhaps a smattering of those who had significant levels of GA experience. This was in addition to career changers, who were moving from one carrier to another to achive their own career goals.
For a new First Officer joining one of these mainline carriers, the terms and conditions were usually a significant jump from those that they had previously worked their way through. However the published seniority salary scales and the benefits of defined benefit (final salary) pension schemes, made a long term career with a company, a desireable and meaningful proposition for both parties to the agreement.
Needless to say all of this came at a significant cost, that obviously had to be passed on to the customer, along with all the other input costs of fuel, insurance, capital purchases, training, navigation and airport fees, engineering, administration, catering, and a myriad of other input costs. Obviously all of this had in theory to be balanced by the requisite number of "bums on seats," and cargo in the hold, to balance the equation. Many airlines were either themselves eminations of the state, or they received state subsidies that reflected the political distortions imposed on their operations by the prestige and other requirements of their national governments. Private airlines either got the mathmatics right, or they went out of business. The latter were however often helped to some degree by a less than free market economy, that regulated the prices they would charge their customers for their services. This was also a double edged sword that also restricted an airlines ability to become competitive on ticket prices, and the ability to serve the routes it might have desired.
Over the last 15 years deregulation in the European marketplace as well as parts of Asia and North America, have seen a massive growth in the "pile 'em high sell 'em cheap" airlines that have blossomed through the promotion of ultra cheap fares based on what has become in many ways, a ludicrous dissection of input costs passsed on in segmented form to the end user. The success of selling a £60 product with a headline price of £1.99 has become the accepted norm. In many ways the pent up demand has caused the pendulum to swing too far, and no doubt over time it will self correct. However the current reality is that the full service legacy carriers have had to face overwhelming competition from the prices being set by the newcomers, as this has become the new expectation for the end user, the ticket buying public.
So back to the pilots.
Well, they are expensive and you can't really get rid of them. So how else do you save money? Well you have two, and you might get rid of one. Unfortunetaly they cannot do that either. So how do they reduce costs? Well they have looked at what is the minimal level of qualification and experience you need in the seat. The answer came as a pleasant surprise. A frozen ATPL and 200 hours experience. This level of experience wouldn't have qualified most individuals for a job as a fresh faced assistant flying instructor in decades past, but for what some of these airlines wanted to achieve, it ticked all the boxes. Then they discovered it just got better and better. People were queueing up and begging to finance the self aquisition of these expensive qualifications. Having done that they would then pay the airline or the airlines (partner) training provider for the enormous cost of additional type related training.
The applicants with fingers in their ears, and blinkers over their eyes, convinced themselves (with a bit of glossy marketing) that having jumped through these hoops, they too would be the next generation of highly rewarded, respected, and much needed airline pilots. Then the boom came down. The only way this scheme worked was that it would reduce costs as much as possible. The people that created the idea, were even greedier than their own predecessors. The companies that appointed them, were highly leveraged and leased or borrowed everything they utilised, such that profit was extracted from every conceivable source. Directors rewards were bonus related on the percentage levels that could be achieved from these extractions.
So there you have it. 200 hour pilots have never been worth much from a commercial standpoint. They weren't in the 60's, 70's, 80's. and 90's. The simple truth is they aren't now either. However if you flip the coin and turn them into paying guests, they are a positive asset as customers. Sell them a glamorous job title and a few hundred hours experience as a real live airline pilot, and they will just keep on coming until reality hits home. Will it last forever? No, it more than likely won't, but business is all about making hay while the sun shines. For the low cost airlines and the flight schools they have "partnered" with, that sunshine has been well and truly scorching. At least it was until recession struck and the reality of this brave new world has been forced on those with blinkers and waxy fingers.
The pensions you refer to were part of the promised deferred renumeration paid to generations of older pilots. This was "money" already earned. In the last decade they have all but disappeared, and the last few will certainly suffer the same fate over the next few years. It is largely as a result of legislative changes that senior pilots (along with almost everybody else) can now work through to a general retirement age. For some pilots this has certainly meant they can draw their (already earned) pensions and still continue to work. That is their legal right provided they are fit to do so. In an increasing number of cases this ability serves to offset the reduction in terms and conditions that are now being applied to the top end of the career ladder, which is very bad for those still years away from that particular pinnacle.
The only prospect for change is regulatory. Experience levels required for these positions need to be set at realistic and significant thresholds. In the USA the process has started to reset these levels at a full ATPL and 1500 hours. The airlines will scream blue murder at the prospect of their newfound revenue stream drying up. The partner training schools will be holding the megaphones for the airlines, and the legions of wannabes with 100K in a bucket will be wringing their hands in despair that they can't become an airline pilot with Eight days total flying experience. Too bad! But that is what it will take to turn this theme park ride back into a proper career again!
In 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and even 2000, airlines paid wages that reflected the level of experience they were hoping to attract. For the jet operators their normal source of such experience came from the military, the turboprop operators, and perhaps a smattering of those who had significant levels of GA experience. This was in addition to career changers, who were moving from one carrier to another to achive their own career goals.
For a new First Officer joining one of these mainline carriers, the terms and conditions were usually a significant jump from those that they had previously worked their way through. However the published seniority salary scales and the benefits of defined benefit (final salary) pension schemes, made a long term career with a company, a desireable and meaningful proposition for both parties to the agreement.
Needless to say all of this came at a significant cost, that obviously had to be passed on to the customer, along with all the other input costs of fuel, insurance, capital purchases, training, navigation and airport fees, engineering, administration, catering, and a myriad of other input costs. Obviously all of this had in theory to be balanced by the requisite number of "bums on seats," and cargo in the hold, to balance the equation. Many airlines were either themselves eminations of the state, or they received state subsidies that reflected the political distortions imposed on their operations by the prestige and other requirements of their national governments. Private airlines either got the mathmatics right, or they went out of business. The latter were however often helped to some degree by a less than free market economy, that regulated the prices they would charge their customers for their services. This was also a double edged sword that also restricted an airlines ability to become competitive on ticket prices, and the ability to serve the routes it might have desired.
Over the last 15 years deregulation in the European marketplace as well as parts of Asia and North America, have seen a massive growth in the "pile 'em high sell 'em cheap" airlines that have blossomed through the promotion of ultra cheap fares based on what has become in many ways, a ludicrous dissection of input costs passsed on in segmented form to the end user. The success of selling a £60 product with a headline price of £1.99 has become the accepted norm. In many ways the pent up demand has caused the pendulum to swing too far, and no doubt over time it will self correct. However the current reality is that the full service legacy carriers have had to face overwhelming competition from the prices being set by the newcomers, as this has become the new expectation for the end user, the ticket buying public.
So back to the pilots.
Well, they are expensive and you can't really get rid of them. So how else do you save money? Well you have two, and you might get rid of one. Unfortunetaly they cannot do that either. So how do they reduce costs? Well they have looked at what is the minimal level of qualification and experience you need in the seat. The answer came as a pleasant surprise. A frozen ATPL and 200 hours experience. This level of experience wouldn't have qualified most individuals for a job as a fresh faced assistant flying instructor in decades past, but for what some of these airlines wanted to achieve, it ticked all the boxes. Then they discovered it just got better and better. People were queueing up and begging to finance the self aquisition of these expensive qualifications. Having done that they would then pay the airline or the airlines (partner) training provider for the enormous cost of additional type related training.
The applicants with fingers in their ears, and blinkers over their eyes, convinced themselves (with a bit of glossy marketing) that having jumped through these hoops, they too would be the next generation of highly rewarded, respected, and much needed airline pilots. Then the boom came down. The only way this scheme worked was that it would reduce costs as much as possible. The people that created the idea, were even greedier than their own predecessors. The companies that appointed them, were highly leveraged and leased or borrowed everything they utilised, such that profit was extracted from every conceivable source. Directors rewards were bonus related on the percentage levels that could be achieved from these extractions.
So there you have it. 200 hour pilots have never been worth much from a commercial standpoint. They weren't in the 60's, 70's, 80's. and 90's. The simple truth is they aren't now either. However if you flip the coin and turn them into paying guests, they are a positive asset as customers. Sell them a glamorous job title and a few hundred hours experience as a real live airline pilot, and they will just keep on coming until reality hits home. Will it last forever? No, it more than likely won't, but business is all about making hay while the sun shines. For the low cost airlines and the flight schools they have "partnered" with, that sunshine has been well and truly scorching. At least it was until recession struck and the reality of this brave new world has been forced on those with blinkers and waxy fingers.
The pensions you refer to were part of the promised deferred renumeration paid to generations of older pilots. This was "money" already earned. In the last decade they have all but disappeared, and the last few will certainly suffer the same fate over the next few years. It is largely as a result of legislative changes that senior pilots (along with almost everybody else) can now work through to a general retirement age. For some pilots this has certainly meant they can draw their (already earned) pensions and still continue to work. That is their legal right provided they are fit to do so. In an increasing number of cases this ability serves to offset the reduction in terms and conditions that are now being applied to the top end of the career ladder, which is very bad for those still years away from that particular pinnacle.
The only prospect for change is regulatory. Experience levels required for these positions need to be set at realistic and significant thresholds. In the USA the process has started to reset these levels at a full ATPL and 1500 hours. The airlines will scream blue murder at the prospect of their newfound revenue stream drying up. The partner training schools will be holding the megaphones for the airlines, and the legions of wannabes with 100K in a bucket will be wringing their hands in despair that they can't become an airline pilot with Eight days total flying experience. Too bad! But that is what it will take to turn this theme park ride back into a proper career again!
Bravo, Sir, bravo.
I'll sticky that after a while. An excellent summary of where we are and how we got here. It often suprises me how little Wannabes know about the industry and its recent past. Mention airlines which were household names a decade ago or aircraft types which were exceedingly common and you get a blank stare. Fair enough we don't need or want every wannabe to be a closet spotter aerosexualist failed airline expert, but, knowing diddly about the recent (20 years) history of your chosen profession is not smart either.
Mind you I've flown with FO's who didn't know which of the Air Frances was a B757 and which was an A330 - no, really - so maybe it doesn't matter.
The current job offers where you pay excessively for a type rating from the employer and then labour on very low terms are a function of them being the only game in town. How long they will stay the only game in town is debatable but certainly for the next year or two. I think the big attraction of seasonal working where you're all but laid off over the winter is going to be something that they try to incorporate into their recruitment even after the upturn.
WWW
I'll sticky that after a while. An excellent summary of where we are and how we got here. It often suprises me how little Wannabes know about the industry and its recent past. Mention airlines which were household names a decade ago or aircraft types which were exceedingly common and you get a blank stare. Fair enough we don't need or want every wannabe to be a closet spotter aerosexualist failed airline expert, but, knowing diddly about the recent (20 years) history of your chosen profession is not smart either.
Mind you I've flown with FO's who didn't know which of the Air Frances was a B757 and which was an A330 - no, really - so maybe it doesn't matter.
The current job offers where you pay excessively for a type rating from the employer and then labour on very low terms are a function of them being the only game in town. How long they will stay the only game in town is debatable but certainly for the next year or two. I think the big attraction of seasonal working where you're all but laid off over the winter is going to be something that they try to incorporate into their recruitment even after the upturn.
WWW
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That's quite a comprehensive review there Bealzebub!
As a youngster (ok 29) looking to take his first steps toward "the dream", after I looked at OAA and others I was initially filled with awe at the glossy message and horror at the cost. As I dug further however, I've become convinced that it's the wrong solution for me and to my mind, the wrong solution for the airlines long-term - lhs on an airliner is "meant" to be slightly greyed and at the pinnacle of their flying carrier - think Virgin's launch advert... To think that it's likely to be someone younger than me with only a "few days" real flying (not simulator...) fills me with dread!
I've decided myself to take the modular route (which will at least mean I need 150 hours to start the CPL) to the sky as my own history of 'direct access' hasn't been 100% successful, whilst the prices are prohibitive and to me, the morals are wrong. If I ever get a role on an airline I'd like to think I've got five years as a minimum flying experience behind me (however being completely honest, the primary concern is I can't afford £100K straight-up!)
If as you claim, our cousins over the pond are considering increasing the threshold, where does that put the MPL that is getting serious push by training organisations and airlines at the moment? Not only that, but if the limit were to be set to 1500 hours (i.e. a melted ATPL), you're suggesting that to fly airlines would require in the region of five years continuous flying experience; where will people get this from as unpaid flying may be fun, but at > £100/hour that's a lot of money to hire a plane and hour build; alternatively are you suggesting a reinforcement of the three tier license - a PPL, a CPL with ratings for ga and then eventually an 'ATPL' for airlines, rather than an fATPL being a CPL with a few more exams and a few more ratings?
It's an interesting idea, but with the horse bolted I can't see it working - for starters, where do you put all the poor sods who've just got a fATPL or are on training courses for one? How about those flying with airlines with maybe 400 hours? Does an airline just ditch them (difficult under EU law) or do they get a bye to the next round? Then as a CPL doesn't authorise carrying of passengers, how does one get experience of flying as most ga in Europe will be cargo or passengers
On top of the above, the paying public have now got used to ten years of cheap aviation, so how does an airline find the extra money for higher pilot wages? - it doesn't so the wages stay as they are or the airline goes bust; otherwise the industry contracts even more as the cheap operators disappear, but again, that would flood the market with pilots wanting a job, so again the airlines could pay what they want until the pool dries up.
btw, I'm not disagreeing that maybe it should happen; I just can't see the practicalities allowing it to - that and the amount of lobbying that the airlines can put to governments will significantly outweigh the concerns of pilot organisations; that is unless the public could be persuaded that the current / future situation is dangerous. Maybe a few rigs falling out of the air due to definite pilot error could help that but no one wants to wish it and automation will be pushed by those with money - i.e. industry - as "the answer". Imagine then the airline execs "oh, you mean we don't need pilots?".
As a youngster (ok 29) looking to take his first steps toward "the dream", after I looked at OAA and others I was initially filled with awe at the glossy message and horror at the cost. As I dug further however, I've become convinced that it's the wrong solution for me and to my mind, the wrong solution for the airlines long-term - lhs on an airliner is "meant" to be slightly greyed and at the pinnacle of their flying carrier - think Virgin's launch advert... To think that it's likely to be someone younger than me with only a "few days" real flying (not simulator...) fills me with dread!
I've decided myself to take the modular route (which will at least mean I need 150 hours to start the CPL) to the sky as my own history of 'direct access' hasn't been 100% successful, whilst the prices are prohibitive and to me, the morals are wrong. If I ever get a role on an airline I'd like to think I've got five years as a minimum flying experience behind me (however being completely honest, the primary concern is I can't afford £100K straight-up!)
If as you claim, our cousins over the pond are considering increasing the threshold, where does that put the MPL that is getting serious push by training organisations and airlines at the moment? Not only that, but if the limit were to be set to 1500 hours (i.e. a melted ATPL), you're suggesting that to fly airlines would require in the region of five years continuous flying experience; where will people get this from as unpaid flying may be fun, but at > £100/hour that's a lot of money to hire a plane and hour build; alternatively are you suggesting a reinforcement of the three tier license - a PPL, a CPL with ratings for ga and then eventually an 'ATPL' for airlines, rather than an fATPL being a CPL with a few more exams and a few more ratings?
It's an interesting idea, but with the horse bolted I can't see it working - for starters, where do you put all the poor sods who've just got a fATPL or are on training courses for one? How about those flying with airlines with maybe 400 hours? Does an airline just ditch them (difficult under EU law) or do they get a bye to the next round? Then as a CPL doesn't authorise carrying of passengers, how does one get experience of flying as most ga in Europe will be cargo or passengers
On top of the above, the paying public have now got used to ten years of cheap aviation, so how does an airline find the extra money for higher pilot wages? - it doesn't so the wages stay as they are or the airline goes bust; otherwise the industry contracts even more as the cheap operators disappear, but again, that would flood the market with pilots wanting a job, so again the airlines could pay what they want until the pool dries up.
btw, I'm not disagreeing that maybe it should happen; I just can't see the practicalities allowing it to - that and the amount of lobbying that the airlines can put to governments will significantly outweigh the concerns of pilot organisations; that is unless the public could be persuaded that the current / future situation is dangerous. Maybe a few rigs falling out of the air due to definite pilot error could help that but no one wants to wish it and automation will be pushed by those with money - i.e. industry - as "the answer". Imagine then the airline execs "oh, you mean we don't need pilots?".
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PPL wannabe,
Left seat on an airliner doesn't have to be grey anything. It is simply a matter of sufficient relevant experience in the general role and an assesment of suitability for the specific upgrade. I have no particular problem with the integrated approach to commercial training nor indeed with the modular method. However the regulator left open a loophole that I like to call the "Hamble factor."
Hamble was an excellent apprenticeship training programme run by the state airlines BEA and BOAC, later to become British airways. It enrolled a small number of well educated and highly motivated individuals into a 2 year airline pilot apprenticeship course. On completion the graduates were seconded to the relevant carrier for a lengthy, mentored and carefully structured further appenticeship, often through the roles of second officer and systems panel operator, until they eventually were integrated into the airlines regular seniority lists. The whole structure was financed by the partner airlines who were obviously state subsidised in the early days. Thus was born the concept of very low houred ab-initio pilots being taken into the role of an airline pilot for a major airline.
Private airlines recruited the best applicants with significant experience from the military, other commercial companies and a few from general aviation. These pilots would have aquired their licences through a combination of training methods and training schools. However without considerable flying experience in possibly a variety of roles, it is unlikely many would have been successful in achieveing a placement at a major airline.
In the last 10-15 years a new industry has grown up that exploits this "Hamble loophole" whereby a few commercial flying schools offer so called tailored programmes that satisfy the airlines need for a cheap warm body with the requisite licence to sit in the right hand seat. The programme itself is supposed to negate the need for the experience that was always a historic requirement. To be fair, these programmes do turn out well rounded, mature, cadets for the most part. However there is simply no getting away from the lack of experience in many of these individuals backgrounds. The rarified, comfortable and shirtsleeve environment of the modern airline flightdeck can easily provide a completely false sense of security and in turn complacency. However a pilots early experience is gathered, it will normally have allowed them to cut their teeth in environments that are more obviously unforgiving. It is also part of the learning experience that individuals will very likely have occaision to frighten themselves. Better this occurs when they are flying smaller aircraft, than with 200 people sat down the back.
At the moment many regulatory authorities are reasonably happy to allow this status quo to continue, provided there is sufficient experience in the left hand seat. The loophole will likely be closed the first time a serious accident occurs that involves the public highlighting of this "low hour" regime. Make no mistake it won't necessarily matter if a pilots low experience is simply incidental rather than causal to an accident, the whole subject will suddenly be highlighted as irresponsible in the public mind. This is what has happened in the USA, and the outrage has spread from the public through the legislators and in turn to the countries regulatory body.
It doesn't matter how prospective pilots achieve their 1500 hours, and that isn't a requirement, merely a minimum threshold. Nor does it matter what it will cost them. It is a delusion to believe that paying the thick end of £100,000 for a licence, £30,000 for a type rating, and God only knows what else for a rolling programme of line training, is in anyway cheap or beneficial either. The only parties who benefit are the providers and airlines, who have no intention of ushering an individual through this scheme, only to then say "its all been a bit of a laugh, here is a well paid job at the end of it." If you think otherwise, open your eyes and read what is already happening. The horse may well have bolted, but that won't prevent them raising the height of the new stable door.
Something will change. Indeed a lot will probably change given time. From the career viewpoint alone, this isn't a job anymore, it is a theme park ride. Individuals are paying huge sums of money for the experience. The right hand flightdeck seat, is for some airlines, more profitable than the first 2 rows of passengers seats! It will become a job again when either this supply dries up, or more likely events conspire to force regulatory change. In my opinion it is not a case of if that happens, simply when.
The public may well have got used to cheap travel. Relatively so, they might continue to enjoy the medium. However the days of cheap fuel are a thing of the past. Other regulatory changes that are coming in Europe (and other countries) in only the next 12 months such as carbon emissions trading, and new enhanced consumer legislation, will both serve to raise costs significantly. Therefore the public may have to get used to a new set of realities, and the idea of further legislation shouldn't come as too much of a shock either. The market is already flooded with pilots. Most of them are experienced pilots looking for paid work. They are finding it very difficult because so many airlines these days dont want pilots looking for renumeration in the right seat, they want pilots looking to pay to sit there. Something that so many wannabes seem oblivious to?
Left seat on an airliner doesn't have to be grey anything. It is simply a matter of sufficient relevant experience in the general role and an assesment of suitability for the specific upgrade. I have no particular problem with the integrated approach to commercial training nor indeed with the modular method. However the regulator left open a loophole that I like to call the "Hamble factor."
Hamble was an excellent apprenticeship training programme run by the state airlines BEA and BOAC, later to become British airways. It enrolled a small number of well educated and highly motivated individuals into a 2 year airline pilot apprenticeship course. On completion the graduates were seconded to the relevant carrier for a lengthy, mentored and carefully structured further appenticeship, often through the roles of second officer and systems panel operator, until they eventually were integrated into the airlines regular seniority lists. The whole structure was financed by the partner airlines who were obviously state subsidised in the early days. Thus was born the concept of very low houred ab-initio pilots being taken into the role of an airline pilot for a major airline.
Private airlines recruited the best applicants with significant experience from the military, other commercial companies and a few from general aviation. These pilots would have aquired their licences through a combination of training methods and training schools. However without considerable flying experience in possibly a variety of roles, it is unlikely many would have been successful in achieveing a placement at a major airline.
In the last 10-15 years a new industry has grown up that exploits this "Hamble loophole" whereby a few commercial flying schools offer so called tailored programmes that satisfy the airlines need for a cheap warm body with the requisite licence to sit in the right hand seat. The programme itself is supposed to negate the need for the experience that was always a historic requirement. To be fair, these programmes do turn out well rounded, mature, cadets for the most part. However there is simply no getting away from the lack of experience in many of these individuals backgrounds. The rarified, comfortable and shirtsleeve environment of the modern airline flightdeck can easily provide a completely false sense of security and in turn complacency. However a pilots early experience is gathered, it will normally have allowed them to cut their teeth in environments that are more obviously unforgiving. It is also part of the learning experience that individuals will very likely have occaision to frighten themselves. Better this occurs when they are flying smaller aircraft, than with 200 people sat down the back.
At the moment many regulatory authorities are reasonably happy to allow this status quo to continue, provided there is sufficient experience in the left hand seat. The loophole will likely be closed the first time a serious accident occurs that involves the public highlighting of this "low hour" regime. Make no mistake it won't necessarily matter if a pilots low experience is simply incidental rather than causal to an accident, the whole subject will suddenly be highlighted as irresponsible in the public mind. This is what has happened in the USA, and the outrage has spread from the public through the legislators and in turn to the countries regulatory body.
It doesn't matter how prospective pilots achieve their 1500 hours, and that isn't a requirement, merely a minimum threshold. Nor does it matter what it will cost them. It is a delusion to believe that paying the thick end of £100,000 for a licence, £30,000 for a type rating, and God only knows what else for a rolling programme of line training, is in anyway cheap or beneficial either. The only parties who benefit are the providers and airlines, who have no intention of ushering an individual through this scheme, only to then say "its all been a bit of a laugh, here is a well paid job at the end of it." If you think otherwise, open your eyes and read what is already happening. The horse may well have bolted, but that won't prevent them raising the height of the new stable door.
Something will change. Indeed a lot will probably change given time. From the career viewpoint alone, this isn't a job anymore, it is a theme park ride. Individuals are paying huge sums of money for the experience. The right hand flightdeck seat, is for some airlines, more profitable than the first 2 rows of passengers seats! It will become a job again when either this supply dries up, or more likely events conspire to force regulatory change. In my opinion it is not a case of if that happens, simply when.
The public may well have got used to cheap travel. Relatively so, they might continue to enjoy the medium. However the days of cheap fuel are a thing of the past. Other regulatory changes that are coming in Europe (and other countries) in only the next 12 months such as carbon emissions trading, and new enhanced consumer legislation, will both serve to raise costs significantly. Therefore the public may have to get used to a new set of realities, and the idea of further legislation shouldn't come as too much of a shock either. The market is already flooded with pilots. Most of them are experienced pilots looking for paid work. They are finding it very difficult because so many airlines these days dont want pilots looking for renumeration in the right seat, they want pilots looking to pay to sit there. Something that so many wannabes seem oblivious to?
Wannabes have made their bed. Nobody forces anybody to pay £70,000 for a basic commercial pilots license and ATPL exam course. Nobody forces anybody to pay twice the market rate for a type rating. Nobody forces anybody to sign a contract bereft of terms or conditions.
The Wannabe zombie army are unstoppable and seemingly extremely well funded and they are killing the job they covet.
Anyway. The real killer is going to be the dollar carry trade. Zhu Min says so and he gets it right far more often than his peers. Its going to be the Yen carry trade collapse on stilts. (Zhu Min is Deputy Governor of the Chinese central bank for those who didn't know)
We're still in a massive recession where GDP contraction is actually worse than the Great Depression. Its easy to forget that with all this bullish talk swilling around and stock markets swinging higher:
Major airlines usually go bust after the recession ends because it holed them under the water line. Beware.
WWW
The Wannabe zombie army are unstoppable and seemingly extremely well funded and they are killing the job they covet.
Anyway. The real killer is going to be the dollar carry trade. Zhu Min says so and he gets it right far more often than his peers. Its going to be the Yen carry trade collapse on stilts. (Zhu Min is Deputy Governor of the Chinese central bank for those who didn't know)
We're still in a massive recession where GDP contraction is actually worse than the Great Depression. Its easy to forget that with all this bullish talk swilling around and stock markets swinging higher:
Major airlines usually go bust after the recession ends because it holed them under the water line. Beware.
WWW
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Wannabes have made their bed.
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Wannabe Zombie Army
20 years in UK airlines, i've never known this so bad, and the scary thought of i'm not sure what will come out of the 'other side'...it will not just revert to 'boom' employment...
I keep saying it, but <200 hours and a fATPL - you're stuffed, for years to come! Except that and move on...
Right, i'm off to spend my redundancy money...
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There seems to be a huge amount of over privileged kids who dont want to work for their position anymore. Complaining that thy dont want to fly a PA 28 for a year before they jump into a jet. Or that they dont want to instruct as its not for them.
Well tough luck, if you dont want to instruct then you shouldn't be a pilot! If you want experience and to gain some valuable skills then instruct, get a job towing aircraft, shove some jumpers out the back of a plane.
Instructing is part of flying in the commercial world. As a captain you are often sitting there watching and instructing. I am not talking about being a training captain, when you are flying with a low time pilot you are teaching all day. Learning to instruct is a lot easier in a PA 28 than something a lot faster and bigger.
Yes instructing doesnt pay much, yes its a struggle and you might have to move away from where you grew up to find a job, but you learn your trade very fast and become a better pilot because of it.
Its sad to see this laziness and how people who have a CPL suddenly look down at a PA 28.
Well tough luck, if you dont want to instruct then you shouldn't be a pilot! If you want experience and to gain some valuable skills then instruct, get a job towing aircraft, shove some jumpers out the back of a plane.
Instructing is part of flying in the commercial world. As a captain you are often sitting there watching and instructing. I am not talking about being a training captain, when you are flying with a low time pilot you are teaching all day. Learning to instruct is a lot easier in a PA 28 than something a lot faster and bigger.
Yes instructing doesnt pay much, yes its a struggle and you might have to move away from where you grew up to find a job, but you learn your trade very fast and become a better pilot because of it.
Its sad to see this laziness and how people who have a CPL suddenly look down at a PA 28.
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To answer the question, do nothing!
Stay out of this industry for the next few years, at least 5 years, maybe more. There are too many experienced, type rated pilots on the market. Many are forced to the Middle East, these guys will be the first in the que when any recruitment starts because they'll all want to come home! (I include many of my collegues in my present airline (Boeing) and those of BMI I met last week (Airbus)!)
Without anyone coming through the 'system' of CPL issue and the retirement 'blip' starting 2014 onwards, then the supply and demand tables will turn - experienced guys will get the opportunities and move sideways to the left and low houred guys will (maybe) start to get jobs again.
To start in this industry as a sensible career option, is just madness right now! Clearly, I don't include these CTCD's (CTC Donkey's) who think it is...and pay to do it!
Stay out of this industry for the next few years, at least 5 years, maybe more. There are too many experienced, type rated pilots on the market. Many are forced to the Middle East, these guys will be the first in the que when any recruitment starts because they'll all want to come home! (I include many of my collegues in my present airline (Boeing) and those of BMI I met last week (Airbus)!)
Without anyone coming through the 'system' of CPL issue and the retirement 'blip' starting 2014 onwards, then the supply and demand tables will turn - experienced guys will get the opportunities and move sideways to the left and low houred guys will (maybe) start to get jobs again.
To start in this industry as a sensible career option, is just madness right now! Clearly, I don't include these CTCD's (CTC Donkey's) who think it is...and pay to do it!
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The recurring theme at the moment, whether it's on this Wannabe section, or on the top end of the forum is many people speaking at each other, but spending little time reading/hearing 
Time after time the message to wannabes is "there are no jobs".
The wannabe response seems to be "yeah, but what can I do to get my first job then" (excluding the standard slag off WWW response). I've been reading PPRuNe for at least 5 years and I've learned to trust what he says. The people that have a go at him and then ask him silly questions like "what airline do you fly for then?" show just how much thought and research they've put in. It takes all of about 3 minutes to find out how he got his first airline job.
Anyway, it's really simple. If there are no jobs to be had, how can something increase your chances of getting a job? The square root of f'all springs to mind.
I got made redundant two years ago and I could have used the redundancy to finally start training. As a long time reader of these fora I knew that although it's what my heart has been set on since I was about 6, it would be a complete waste of time and money. I gave up on the idea (again).
I remember back in 2007/8, time after time a new face would show up and slag off WWW for telling wannabes not to jump into training. They'd accuse him of all sorts of things and eventually they'd disappear with a closing line of "well I'm going to do it anyway and I'll be back in a year to tell you that you were soooo wrong".
As for me, for now, I've decided to check out my local gliding club and learn to fly gliders. I didn't even know the club existed until two weeks ago. This looks like about the only kind of aviation that I can justify the cost of and looks like bleeding good fun too. I'd previously thought that I shouldn't start any flying training without a sensible (and affordable) plan/direction and I knew I wouldn't be able to afford to do much post PPL and it would probably lapse before I got the hours to start the CPL. My current plan now involves gliding (if I actually enjoy it, that is) to try and get a BGL in a couple of years. This allows one to get a NPPL with 10 hours dual instruction (though obviously longer will be necessary). From there I can use the PPL to have some fun. But, with an NPPL, one can get a JAR PPL with 20 hours [minimum] dual instuction. A very long winded route, just to get the JAR-PPL but hopefully a lot of interesting flying before then and no particular rush to get it all done. CPL etc. in, what, 10 years time? Should be just in time for the industry to recover lol.
Sorry, I seem to have rambled off topic a bit here
Time after time the message to wannabes is "there are no jobs".
The wannabe response seems to be "yeah, but what can I do to get my first job then" (excluding the standard slag off WWW response). I've been reading PPRuNe for at least 5 years and I've learned to trust what he says. The people that have a go at him and then ask him silly questions like "what airline do you fly for then?" show just how much thought and research they've put in. It takes all of about 3 minutes to find out how he got his first airline job.
Anyway, it's really simple. If there are no jobs to be had, how can something increase your chances of getting a job? The square root of f'all springs to mind.
I got made redundant two years ago and I could have used the redundancy to finally start training. As a long time reader of these fora I knew that although it's what my heart has been set on since I was about 6, it would be a complete waste of time and money. I gave up on the idea (again).
I remember back in 2007/8, time after time a new face would show up and slag off WWW for telling wannabes not to jump into training. They'd accuse him of all sorts of things and eventually they'd disappear with a closing line of "well I'm going to do it anyway and I'll be back in a year to tell you that you were soooo wrong".
As for me, for now, I've decided to check out my local gliding club and learn to fly gliders. I didn't even know the club existed until two weeks ago. This looks like about the only kind of aviation that I can justify the cost of and looks like bleeding good fun too. I'd previously thought that I shouldn't start any flying training without a sensible (and affordable) plan/direction and I knew I wouldn't be able to afford to do much post PPL and it would probably lapse before I got the hours to start the CPL. My current plan now involves gliding (if I actually enjoy it, that is) to try and get a BGL in a couple of years. This allows one to get a NPPL with 10 hours dual instruction (though obviously longer will be necessary). From there I can use the PPL to have some fun. But, with an NPPL, one can get a JAR PPL with 20 hours [minimum] dual instuction. A very long winded route, just to get the JAR-PPL but hopefully a lot of interesting flying before then and no particular rush to get it all done. CPL etc. in, what, 10 years time? Should be just in time for the industry to recover lol.
Sorry, I seem to have rambled off topic a bit here
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Yeah that's great JB, but some of us, if we want to follow you guys, are at an age where we have to move now. I'm 29, I'm doing modular part time. I expect to take three years to gain CPL and an FI rating.
That's my choice because I don't want to have ap disengage on me at 500' in the last moments of a final, in a strong cross-wind and not have the faintest idea what to do. I personally want flying experience; however at the same time I'm very lucky I have a good IT job that brings in >£30k so I can do this part time (indeed the employer is being so good as to let me take a few weeks bulk leave as and when I need to).
Now if you really want to stop people going through the 'direct access' route, make the funding disappear - if you can't get the loan for £80k or whatever, you won't do it that route; and (and I think this is the important part) - do some press! OAA, CTC, other schools are brilliant at their marketing - I was quoted (and I paraphrase) "airlines only want to employee people who've done an integrated course, BA or others will not ever look at you unless you learn with us". So rather than just sit on a forum telling people they are
for wanting to achieve their lifetime ambitions, when they've had the CFI of OAA or whoever else give them this that and the over about how training school x is best and this route is the only real option, get out there, get the pilots unions lobbying and actively do something so that aspiring pilots realise there is an option here. Oh and maybe get the legal beavers and bean counters to adjust the minimum real flying hours to a higher benchmark.
** and just for the record, I do think anyone who spends £100k without looking first is a tool. At the same time, we're mature (I hope) enough to realise there may not be a job available when we get our fATPL's, however going modular, at least I'll be taking my time and things may (Gawds I hope so) be better in three / four years.
That's my choice because I don't want to have ap disengage on me at 500' in the last moments of a final, in a strong cross-wind and not have the faintest idea what to do. I personally want flying experience; however at the same time I'm very lucky I have a good IT job that brings in >£30k so I can do this part time (indeed the employer is being so good as to let me take a few weeks bulk leave as and when I need to).
Now if you really want to stop people going through the 'direct access' route, make the funding disappear - if you can't get the loan for £80k or whatever, you won't do it that route; and (and I think this is the important part) - do some press! OAA, CTC, other schools are brilliant at their marketing - I was quoted (and I paraphrase) "airlines only want to employee people who've done an integrated course, BA or others will not ever look at you unless you learn with us". So rather than just sit on a forum telling people they are
for wanting to achieve their lifetime ambitions, when they've had the CFI of OAA or whoever else give them this that and the over about how training school x is best and this route is the only real option, get out there, get the pilots unions lobbying and actively do something so that aspiring pilots realise there is an option here. Oh and maybe get the legal beavers and bean counters to adjust the minimum real flying hours to a higher benchmark.** and just for the record, I do think anyone who spends £100k without looking first is a tool. At the same time, we're mature (I hope) enough to realise there may not be a job available when we get our fATPL's, however going modular, at least I'll be taking my time and things may (Gawds I hope so) be better in three / four years.
Last edited by PPLWannabe; 31st Jan 2010 at 19:52.
DiagonalLeg - thanks for trusting me. I did spend much of 2007/8 being called a doom monger, pessimist and wannabe economist. Its always nice to hear that my efforts helped stave off another Wannabe from the current cesspit of employment opportunities. I get many such communications via PM. The current status quo is simply awful and CPL/IR holding Wannabes are gripped firmly by the balls by the only couple of airlines currently hiring. The squeezing brings a tear to my eye merely as a spectator..
The gliding is an excellent idea. I started that way and became an instructor. It was fun, relevant and free. A winning combination..
Good Luck,
WWW
The gliding is an excellent idea. I started that way and became an instructor. It was fun, relevant and free. A winning combination..
Good Luck,
WWW
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Why do folks seem to think there are jobs for low houred British wanabees in the middle east or Asia? Having just moved to Asia from the middle east I can tell you that simply isn't true...
the last recession
I started TREing in the late 1990s and I was absolutely amazed at the number of First Officers doing their initial LSTs who had been waiting for an airline job for up to 10 years! They had qualified in the late 80s during the previous recruitment boom that had been led by BA, but sadly had not found work with an airline during that time.
Unfortunately, when eventually, normal recruitment starts once more, those out of work the longest get taken on last. WWW has been spot on for years and it is difficult not to be extremely pessimistic about the employment prospects of those recently qualified pilots who have not yet found work.
The low cost airlines have very narrow recruitment criteria and it would be wise for those not meeting the requirements, ie; enough money for a TR and the ability to instantly relocate, to give aviation a miss.
Aviation has always been cyclical and if you're not ready to drop everything at the right point in the cycle, at the right age and in the right place, then aviation ain't for you, no matter how badly you want it. The industry calls the shots, not the individual....in fact there's no place in this industry for individuals, we're all just cogs in the machine!
Bealzebubs posts hit the nail on the head!!
Unfortunately, when eventually, normal recruitment starts once more, those out of work the longest get taken on last. WWW has been spot on for years and it is difficult not to be extremely pessimistic about the employment prospects of those recently qualified pilots who have not yet found work.
The low cost airlines have very narrow recruitment criteria and it would be wise for those not meeting the requirements, ie; enough money for a TR and the ability to instantly relocate, to give aviation a miss.
Aviation has always been cyclical and if you're not ready to drop everything at the right point in the cycle, at the right age and in the right place, then aviation ain't for you, no matter how badly you want it. The industry calls the shots, not the individual....in fact there's no place in this industry for individuals, we're all just cogs in the machine!
Bealzebubs posts hit the nail on the head!!
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You also helped me with my school choice. I'm now making an electric scheme of the A330 Dc essential bus and I love it! Who said airplane engineering is boring? I'm also working as a job student, only giving away money I earned and not that I borrowed from some big financial institution. I think you are someone with great advise for wannabe's, including myself. Blindly believing that times will get better is stupid. I hope some wannabe's listen to your advice, just like I did.
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Poeli - Good for you to have the autonomy to be able to think for yourself. If more people take your view, I think it will be great, because there will be one less to compete with in 2014!!!
WWW - I understand and agree with what you say regarding the black hole in market today, however you would have to agree the sensible way today would be to do modular route, and spend few years instructing, so at least you gain a sensible amount of experience, and when the upturn really does come you are not a the bottom of the pile!!!
There is no good to say wait until 2014, because by the time you get ready, the upturn will be back into a downturn again!
WWW - I understand and agree with what you say regarding the black hole in market today, however you would have to agree the sensible way today would be to do modular route, and spend few years instructing, so at least you gain a sensible amount of experience, and when the upturn really does come you are not a the bottom of the pile!!!
There is no good to say wait until 2014, because by the time you get ready, the upturn will be back into a downturn again!
Look - dimwit - if I thought training now and spending a few years as an instructor was a good idea I'd say that. I don't. Its a terrible idea.
There ARE NO FI JOBS for a start. Demand is low and all sorts of idiots who training in a recession all had the same idea to splurge a further £7,000 on an FIC. The market is saturated with low time FI's and nobody is hiring. Working for free at weekends is about the best you can hope for. And even then nobody is much interested - you're green and crap and just one in a big tall pile of CV's.
Just don't train now. Its pointless. Go as far as a PPL and some self study for the ATPL course if you really must. But commercial training is all about buying a fast erroding skillset you want to sell to an airline. There are no buyers and by the time some come back to the market your skillset will have erroded to oblivion - it only takes about 6 moths...
There isn't going to be an upturn for a good long time and unless you can afford the whole course plus type rating plus slave wages for a year or two then its best not to put into motion an expensive plan that you cannot carry to completion.
Its bleak. It will continue to be bleak. It may get bleaker.
People who are currently sobbing in the corner about being exploited by the few airline that are hiring are the same people (by and large) who ignored my copious warnings from the Summer of 2007 not to train. Do not rush to join their particular personal hell of debt and insecurity. It is thoroughly miserable.
WWW
There ARE NO FI JOBS for a start. Demand is low and all sorts of idiots who training in a recession all had the same idea to splurge a further £7,000 on an FIC. The market is saturated with low time FI's and nobody is hiring. Working for free at weekends is about the best you can hope for. And even then nobody is much interested - you're green and crap and just one in a big tall pile of CV's.
Just don't train now. Its pointless. Go as far as a PPL and some self study for the ATPL course if you really must. But commercial training is all about buying a fast erroding skillset you want to sell to an airline. There are no buyers and by the time some come back to the market your skillset will have erroded to oblivion - it only takes about 6 moths...
There isn't going to be an upturn for a good long time and unless you can afford the whole course plus type rating plus slave wages for a year or two then its best not to put into motion an expensive plan that you cannot carry to completion.
Its bleak. It will continue to be bleak. It may get bleaker.
People who are currently sobbing in the corner about being exploited by the few airline that are hiring are the same people (by and large) who ignored my copious warnings from the Summer of 2007 not to train. Do not rush to join their particular personal hell of debt and insecurity. It is thoroughly miserable.
WWW
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@tigermagicjohn
Have you ever heard of the magical word modular?
I'm not the type to walk around in a fancy uniform with 70k debts on a market where there are very few jobs for a long time.
Let me give you an example, of here in Belgium:
- Every year:
- 50 students of BAFA
- 80 students of SFA
- 25 students of OAC
- 10 tot 20 students with BAFA in college.
And that's only the Flemish side of Belgium. Anyone who believes 'times will become better, you will find' a job is naive. You might be lucky and fine one in the future yes. But was it worth the gamble of losing 70k € with no degree ending up in a factory earning € 1000 a month?
Heck no.
Have you ever heard of the magical word modular?
I'm not the type to walk around in a fancy uniform with 70k debts on a market where there are very few jobs for a long time.
Let me give you an example, of here in Belgium:
- Every year:
- 50 students of BAFA
- 80 students of SFA
- 25 students of OAC
- 10 tot 20 students with BAFA in college.
And that's only the Flemish side of Belgium. Anyone who believes 'times will become better, you will find' a job is naive. You might be lucky and fine one in the future yes. But was it worth the gamble of losing 70k € with no degree ending up in a factory earning € 1000 a month?
Heck no.
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What idiot would go intergrated now?
Have I have said anything else then modular?
And to Mr WWW - I personally would be able to freelance as FI, I would not do it because I need to live of the money I make.
And there more that do not believe in what you say, the more students there will be to instruct. I have already got offers to instruct outside UK if I want, but all in due course.
I also have several friends, who got work flying 737 classic, based in Dubai, flying Afghanistan, they got jobs with TR - sure they will have better chance getting a job then doing nothing!
Have I have said anything else then modular?
And to Mr WWW - I personally would be able to freelance as FI, I would not do it because I need to live of the money I make.
And there more that do not believe in what you say, the more students there will be to instruct. I have already got offers to instruct outside UK if I want, but all in due course.
I also have several friends, who got work flying 737 classic, based in Dubai, flying Afghanistan, they got jobs with TR - sure they will have better chance getting a job then doing nothing!