PPL wannabe,
Left seat on an airliner doesn't have to be grey anything. It is simply a matter of sufficient relevant experience in the general role and an assesment of suitability for the specific upgrade. I have no particular problem with the integrated approach to commercial training nor indeed with the modular method. However the regulator left open a loophole that I like to call the "Hamble factor."
Hamble was an excellent apprenticeship training programme run by the state airlines BEA and BOAC, later to become British airways. It enrolled a small number of well educated and highly motivated individuals into a 2 year airline pilot apprenticeship course. On completion the graduates were seconded to the relevant carrier for a lengthy, mentored and carefully structured further appenticeship, often through the roles of second officer and systems panel operator, until they eventually were integrated into the airlines regular seniority lists. The whole structure was financed by the partner airlines who were obviously state subsidised in the early days. Thus was born the concept of very low houred ab-initio pilots being taken into the role of an airline pilot for a major airline.
Private airlines recruited the best applicants with significant experience from the military, other commercial companies and a few from general aviation. These pilots would have aquired their licences through a combination of training methods and training schools. However without considerable flying experience in possibly a variety of roles, it is unlikely many would have been successful in achieveing a placement at a major airline.
In the last 10-15 years a new industry has grown up that exploits this "Hamble loophole" whereby a few commercial flying schools offer so called tailored programmes that satisfy the airlines need for a cheap warm body with the requisite licence to sit in the right hand seat. The programme itself is supposed to negate the need for the experience that was always a historic requirement. To be fair, these programmes do turn out well rounded, mature, cadets for the most part. However there is simply no getting away from the lack of experience in many of these individuals backgrounds. The rarified, comfortable and shirtsleeve environment of the modern airline flightdeck can easily provide a completely false sense of security and in turn complacency. However a pilots early experience is gathered, it will normally have allowed them to cut their teeth in environments that are more obviously unforgiving. It is also part of the learning experience that individuals will very likely have occaision to frighten themselves. Better this occurs when they are flying smaller aircraft, than with 200 people sat down the back.
At the moment many regulatory authorities are reasonably happy to allow this status quo to continue, provided there is sufficient experience in the left hand seat. The loophole will likely be closed the first time a serious accident occurs that involves the public highlighting of this "low hour" regime. Make no mistake it won't necessarily matter if a pilots low experience is simply incidental rather than causal to an accident, the whole subject will suddenly be highlighted as irresponsible in the public mind. This is what has happened in the USA, and the outrage has spread from the public through the legislators and in turn to the countries regulatory body.
It doesn't matter how prospective pilots achieve their 1500 hours, and that isn't a requirement, merely a minimum threshold. Nor does it matter what it will cost them. It is a delusion to believe that paying the thick end of £100,000 for a licence, £30,000 for a type rating, and God only knows what else for a rolling programme of line training, is in anyway cheap or beneficial either. The only parties who benefit are the providers and airlines, who have no intention of ushering an individual through this scheme, only to then say "its all been a bit of a laugh, here is a well paid job at the end of it." If you think otherwise, open your eyes and read what is already happening. The horse may well have bolted, but that won't prevent them raising the height of the new stable door.
Something will change. Indeed a lot will probably change given time. From the career viewpoint alone, this isn't a job anymore, it is a theme park ride. Individuals are paying huge sums of money for the experience. The right hand flightdeck seat, is for some airlines, more profitable than the first 2 rows of passengers seats! It will become a job again when either this supply dries up, or more likely events conspire to force regulatory change. In my opinion it is not a case of if that happens, simply when.
The public may well have got used to cheap travel. Relatively so, they might continue to enjoy the medium. However the days of cheap fuel are a thing of the past. Other regulatory changes that are coming in Europe (and other countries) in only the next 12 months such as carbon emissions trading, and new enhanced consumer legislation, will both serve to raise costs significantly. Therefore the public may have to get used to a new set of realities, and the idea of further legislation shouldn't come as too much of a shock either. The market is already flooded with pilots. Most of them are experienced pilots looking for paid work. They are finding it very difficult because so many airlines these days dont want pilots looking for renumeration in the right seat, they want pilots looking to pay to sit there. Something that so many wannabes seem oblivious to?