That's quite a comprehensive review there Bealzebub!
As a youngster (ok 29) looking to take his first steps toward "the dream", after I looked at OAA and others I was initially filled with awe at the glossy message and horror at the cost. As I dug further however, I've become convinced that it's the wrong solution for me and to my mind, the wrong solution for the airlines long-term - lhs on an airliner is "meant" to be slightly greyed and at the pinnacle of their flying carrier - think Virgin's launch advert... To think that it's likely to be someone younger than me with only a "few days" real flying (not simulator...) fills me with dread!
I've decided myself to take the modular route (which will at least mean I need 150 hours to start the CPL) to the sky as my own history of 'direct access' hasn't been 100% successful, whilst the prices are prohibitive and to me, the morals are wrong. If I ever get a role on an airline I'd like to think I've got five years as a minimum flying experience behind me (however being completely honest, the primary concern is I can't afford £100K straight-up!)
If as you claim, our cousins over the pond are considering increasing the threshold, where does that put the MPL that is getting serious push by training organisations and airlines at the moment? Not only that, but if the limit were to be set to 1500 hours (i.e. a melted ATPL), you're suggesting that to fly airlines would require in the region of five years continuous flying experience; where will people get this from as unpaid flying may be fun, but at > £100/hour that's a lot of money to hire a plane and hour build; alternatively are you suggesting a reinforcement of the three tier license - a PPL, a CPL with ratings for ga and then eventually an 'ATPL' for airlines, rather than an fATPL being a CPL with a few more exams and a few more ratings?
It's an interesting idea, but with the horse bolted I can't see it working - for starters, where do you put all the poor sods who've just got a fATPL or are on training courses for one? How about those flying with airlines with maybe 400 hours? Does an airline just ditch them (difficult under EU law) or do they get a bye to the next round? Then as a CPL doesn't authorise carrying of passengers, how does one get experience of flying as most ga in Europe will be cargo or passengers
On top of the above, the paying public have now got used to ten years of cheap aviation, so how does an airline find the extra money for higher pilot wages? - it doesn't so the wages stay as they are or the airline goes bust; otherwise the industry contracts even more as the cheap operators disappear, but again, that would flood the market with pilots wanting a job, so again the airlines could pay what they want until the pool dries up.
btw, I'm not disagreeing that maybe it should happen; I just can't see the practicalities allowing it to - that and the amount of lobbying that the airlines can put to governments will significantly outweigh the concerns of pilot organisations; that is unless the public could be persuaded that the current / future situation is dangerous. Maybe a few rigs falling out of the air due to definite pilot error could help that but no one wants to wish it and automation will be pushed by those with money - i.e. industry - as "the answer". Imagine then the airline execs "oh, you mean we don't need pilots?".