PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 30th Jan 2010, 15:54
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Bealzebub
 
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Aceoftheskyes or Tigermajicjohn or whatever name you are using this week, let me explain what has happened, and what is happening. Not because you really care I suspect, but because for the never ending legions of those who simply refuse to understand, it is another opportunity to provide a potted history of the real world.

In 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and even 2000, airlines paid wages that reflected the level of experience they were hoping to attract. For the jet operators their normal source of such experience came from the military, the turboprop operators, and perhaps a smattering of those who had significant levels of GA experience. This was in addition to career changers, who were moving from one carrier to another to achive their own career goals.

For a new First Officer joining one of these mainline carriers, the terms and conditions were usually a significant jump from those that they had previously worked their way through. However the published seniority salary scales and the benefits of defined benefit (final salary) pension schemes, made a long term career with a company, a desireable and meaningful proposition for both parties to the agreement.

Needless to say all of this came at a significant cost, that obviously had to be passed on to the customer, along with all the other input costs of fuel, insurance, capital purchases, training, navigation and airport fees, engineering, administration, catering, and a myriad of other input costs. Obviously all of this had in theory to be balanced by the requisite number of "bums on seats," and cargo in the hold, to balance the equation. Many airlines were either themselves eminations of the state, or they received state subsidies that reflected the political distortions imposed on their operations by the prestige and other requirements of their national governments. Private airlines either got the mathmatics right, or they went out of business. The latter were however often helped to some degree by a less than free market economy, that regulated the prices they would charge their customers for their services. This was also a double edged sword that also restricted an airlines ability to become competitive on ticket prices, and the ability to serve the routes it might have desired.

Over the last 15 years deregulation in the European marketplace as well as parts of Asia and North America, have seen a massive growth in the "pile 'em high sell 'em cheap" airlines that have blossomed through the promotion of ultra cheap fares based on what has become in many ways, a ludicrous dissection of input costs passsed on in segmented form to the end user. The success of selling a £60 product with a headline price of £1.99 has become the accepted norm. In many ways the pent up demand has caused the pendulum to swing too far, and no doubt over time it will self correct. However the current reality is that the full service legacy carriers have had to face overwhelming competition from the prices being set by the newcomers, as this has become the new expectation for the end user, the ticket buying public.

So back to the pilots.

Well, they are expensive and you can't really get rid of them. So how else do you save money? Well you have two, and you might get rid of one. Unfortunetaly they cannot do that either. So how do they reduce costs? Well they have looked at what is the minimal level of qualification and experience you need in the seat. The answer came as a pleasant surprise. A frozen ATPL and 200 hours experience. This level of experience wouldn't have qualified most individuals for a job as a fresh faced assistant flying instructor in decades past, but for what some of these airlines wanted to achieve, it ticked all the boxes. Then they discovered it just got better and better. People were queueing up and begging to finance the self aquisition of these expensive qualifications. Having done that they would then pay the airline or the airlines (partner) training provider for the enormous cost of additional type related training.

The applicants with fingers in their ears, and blinkers over their eyes, convinced themselves (with a bit of glossy marketing) that having jumped through these hoops, they too would be the next generation of highly rewarded, respected, and much needed airline pilots. Then the boom came down. The only way this scheme worked was that it would reduce costs as much as possible. The people that created the idea, were even greedier than their own predecessors. The companies that appointed them, were highly leveraged and leased or borrowed everything they utilised, such that profit was extracted from every conceivable source. Directors rewards were bonus related on the percentage levels that could be achieved from these extractions.

So there you have it. 200 hour pilots have never been worth much from a commercial standpoint. They weren't in the 60's, 70's, 80's. and 90's. The simple truth is they aren't now either. However if you flip the coin and turn them into paying guests, they are a positive asset as customers. Sell them a glamorous job title and a few hundred hours experience as a real live airline pilot, and they will just keep on coming until reality hits home. Will it last forever? No, it more than likely won't, but business is all about making hay while the sun shines. For the low cost airlines and the flight schools they have "partnered" with, that sunshine has been well and truly scorching. At least it was until recession struck and the reality of this brave new world has been forced on those with blinkers and waxy fingers.

The pensions you refer to were part of the promised deferred renumeration paid to generations of older pilots. This was "money" already earned. In the last decade they have all but disappeared, and the last few will certainly suffer the same fate over the next few years. It is largely as a result of legislative changes that senior pilots (along with almost everybody else) can now work through to a general retirement age. For some pilots this has certainly meant they can draw their (already earned) pensions and still continue to work. That is their legal right provided they are fit to do so. In an increasing number of cases this ability serves to offset the reduction in terms and conditions that are now being applied to the top end of the career ladder, which is very bad for those still years away from that particular pinnacle.

The only prospect for change is regulatory. Experience levels required for these positions need to be set at realistic and significant thresholds. In the USA the process has started to reset these levels at a full ATPL and 1500 hours. The airlines will scream blue murder at the prospect of their newfound revenue stream drying up. The partner training schools will be holding the megaphones for the airlines, and the legions of wannabes with 100K in a bucket will be wringing their hands in despair that they can't become an airline pilot with Eight days total flying experience. Too bad! But that is what it will take to turn this theme park ride back into a proper career again!
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