I agree with all of this, and will add that if the Ukrainian army ever breaks, putting it back together again will be impossible.
I see western leaders holding back as playing a dangerous game.

Whatever the US reasoning behind not sending any of its 2,000 tanks that are in storage (40°12'9.01"N 120° 8'54.50"W) the Biden administration and the DoD is playing cheapskate with the Bradleys too. Ukraine should be getting 500 Bradleys along with 500 MBTs, (and everything else that's been pledged).

Jordan Challenger Mk 1
 

...
While we're on the subject, is there any realisable value of any kind, to anyone, short or long term, in the 400 odd Challenger Mk. 1 tanks and associated stuff (eg. 120mm rifled ammo) apparently being retired by Jordan ? Some of them should be fairly serviceable. Four tank battalions worth being replaced by Leclercs.

Who would likely have disposal rights for all that heavy metal ?
This from a week ago - might be behind their paywall but it was osint on gurgle. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...s-wrong-tanks/


Haven't seen it mentioned here or JB yet, so apols if I missed.

LFH

Latvia and Estonia today announced they are expelling their Russian ambassadors….

Estonia was tit for tat as russia expelled estonian ambassador

I suppose support and logistics would be the issue as only one having those is Jordan.
Who would train the UKR? What happens when they run out of Challengers, not due to combat losses necessarily but due to lack of spares? Another training round to Leos/Abrams? In what condition those Challys are, Ihave no idea but have they realy kept those in good fightimg order?

Doable I suppose but would be better idea to go for Leos for many reasons.

Well this is a new one from Lavrov. Haven't heard this one as a reason for the invasion before.

Fitter 2 / Beamer
I am well aware that it would be very easy to just say yes to the Ukrainian request, and indeed the pressure which is undoubtedly being felt by the German Govt or more precisely its chancellor.

However Germany has a coalition government and as is the nature of coalition then all sides of a decision will get discussed sometimes to the nth degree it seems. The debate re Lep 2 has been going on since at least last June here ( I am currently in Germany and actually took part in a demonstration last night to Free the Leopards , my second Demo the first being against Brexit in London ) , so I do agree that they should be sent.

However working and living here part time at least, I am also a tuned to some of the issues with the decision, which do not seem to be reported clearly in UK press. May I suggest watching some DW English language programmes on the issue which may help your understanding from a German viewpoint.

Personally I think you will see a relaxation of the end user rules for re exporting in the not too distant future. As for German stocks I think given the plan to rearm they may well be checking what they need to accomplish that as well. Even though German tank manufacturers are bigger than their UK counterparts, we are not talking car assembly levels of production , closer maybe to a small passenger airliner time scale wise.

Anyway pretty sure some movement will occur relatively quickly.

As for Jordanian challengers it depends on the state they are in much like their UK counterparts. I have already talked of my concerns over such a small deployment of Challenger's and the logistics problems this may have. I hope that the ones we send are not the hanger queens of the British Army, as just like aircraft, there are good and unreliable tanks as well 😉

Cheers
Mr Mac

Estonia has made an unprecedented decision: to transfer all their 155 howitzers to Ukraine.

According to Kaimo Kuusk, Ambassador to Ukraine, in this way the country wants to create a precedent that others have no excuse why they cannot provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons.

See NutLoose’s depressing link on the state of the German military.

https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post11372563

I presume they will be from the NATO war stocks pulled out of storage at Sennelager.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...-train-europe/

https://www.forces.net/operations/ge...ng-sent-poland

Planted question?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-n...-reach-russia/

UK ‘not ruling out’ giving Ukraine missiles to reach Russia

Britain has “not ruled out” supplying Ukraine with missiles with sufficient range to destroy missile systems in Russia which may be targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.The answer came to light in response to a written question ssked by Lord Blencathra.

“To ask His Majesty’s Government whether they have any plans to supply Ukraine with missiles with sufficient range to destroy missile systems in Russia which may be targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.”

Baroness Goldie, Minister of State for the Ministry of Defence, responded:

“The UK will keep our support to Ukraine under review and has not ruled out the possibility of providing longer range weapons systems to counter Russia’s recent indiscriminate mass targeting of civilian infrastructure.

We have provided Ukraine with military aid on the understanding that it will be used in accordance with international humanitarian law. We liaise on a daily basis with the Ukrainian Government, and they are clear that equipment provided by the UK is intended for the defence of Ukraine.”

Wow

Thanks for your insight, it is appreciated. If your forecast is spot on, we won't have to speculate furthermore and UKR gets their Leos! :ok:

Poland has requested of Berlin to send 14 Leopards to Ukraine, not a lot, but a start, plus the other countries that are joining in with Poland, the numbers might add up, Germany has available 19 they could send after a survey.


Those hangared Leo 1's haven't moved in a while.

Aviation Content:

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1617575813242818560?cxt=HHwWgMDQmbio5PIsAAAA

:) :(

F-16?

Twitter

Orac
The points you made about German preparedness is indeed what I was driving at.

The current German forces are a shadow of those pre unification and the announcement about expansion has forced a look in the cupboard and there is not much there so to speak.

We may now witness possibly akin to what happened post Pearl Harbour and German arms manufacturing goes into a boom period. Many here would hope not, as they preferred life as it was with the hope that Russia would become a more democratic society. That wish has, as we know been rudely shattered, and it now really depends how the Germans react to the change. Knowing them quite well it could go either way but the feeling in the demonstration last night was more we want 8 and we won’t wait for those who remember pre WW1 arms race.

Interesting as always Orac.

Cheers
Mr Mac

He needs to up his lithium intake....

Germany & tanks
 

The German coalition is split on the subject of tank supply. The Greens & Liberals in favour, Scholz & co divided too but a German MP speaking on BBC radio made it clear that irritating Russia was behind the vacilations and effectively said that not everybody was committed to Ukraine winning. They just want it all to stop. Self interest to the max

Actually it is probably true but he has a very long memory
https://www.neatorama.com/2019/11/11...ony-in-Crimea/
https://www.caitlingreen.org/2015/05...black-sea.html