My best guess too. Looks like mortar fire rather than artillery. Mortars are not very accurate, even with a spotter. Buggering up supply routes is generally a bloody good tactic. The BMP occupants may have got out OK. Doubt they will be fit to fight for a while. They most likely won't be keen to take that route again.

Still I only offer an opinion, but the situation is moving so fast at the moment who knows how things will pan out. I have been watching John Mearsheimer's (of the Uni of Chicago) contributions on YouTube and I do recommend these, they have helped me make sense of things in a wider geopolitical context, whether you agree with him or not he is a very able and thoughtful analyst.

I was once offered some advice by a former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan with whom shared much Vodka one night in the (old) Tashkent Intercontinental bar, telling me he'd worked in around 20 countries during his long career and his advice "Basically flash, everywhere I have lived and worked worldwide you can roughly count on 90% of folk to be decent and 10% not so good" - have always taken this simple maxim as gospel since )

Russia under Yeltsin was an utter shambles. Vlad got it working again for ordinary Russians (with extras for the oligarchs) and earned a measure of gratitude / support through results, propaganda and suppression of dissent.

It amazes me even more every day that mothers are not marching in the streets as they did with a now single digit percentage of the losses in Afghanistan. Vlad is demonstrating extraordinary skills in controlling the public narrative.

Mearsheimer believes that the US (and the rest of NATO) created a problem when they allowed eastern expansion of NATO. I don't have a direct quote of his, but I believe he holds the west responsible for driving Russia to invade Ukraine. His arguments strike me as being naive and show a lack of understanding of Russian history and world outlook.

Do you share his views?

I totally agree with this sentiment, but I'd go further and say that measure of gratitude is still very considerable. Many credit him with "Saving Russia" (not my words but I can see where they come from, from a Moscow perspective 1999 and 2001 were like night and day).

Yes indeed, and I offer my apologies once again for the harshness of my words. I too try to absorb as much as practically possible from a cross section of sources, so will definitely watch some of those videos.

Agree with the notion of a 90/10 good/bad ratio, seems pretty true to life.

Back to the thread meaning and content.

I am glad to see you posting. :ok:
On the Mil side, as this is the Mil Av forum and not JB:

Are the Russians going to try to make a move before General Mud rears his soppy head?
There was some talk last year when the 24 Feb invasion kicked off that they had waited a few weeks too many to launch and had some trouble with off-road movement.
I will make a few guesses under the assumption of a few lessons being learned.

a. They will try to better coordinate their air and EW arms to support ground operations.
(RUSI article a few months back on how they got a bit in each others way during the opening weeks last year).
b. Limited objectives, then dig in.
c. Use Belarus as privileged sanctuary for selected air operations.

And these guesses might be wrong.

Plus there is that little matter that depleted uranium isn't radioactive to any meaningful degree. It's highly toxic (as are many heavy metals), but hardly radioactively 'dirty'.

Thanks Lone, and oh dear, I don't wander here often. I think it must be the new front page of popular threads and I clicked assuming it was a JB topic!

I'm still curious whether you share Mearsheimer's views.
It might make interesting discussion if you were to respond.

To me, this reads like Russian propaganda; it strikes me as an appeal to fear.
I am surprised that the one other person to challenge this post had all their posts removed.
It seems that you've learned how to manipulate the old boys.

BTW
The fact that you chose not to respond to my query about your views on Mearsheimer's message is interesting in itself.

I won't call for your posts to be taken down, but I do wish you'd be a little more upfront about what you're doing here.

Hitler did something very similar in Germany. Didn't end well.

T-72 ammunition explosions, a statistical analysis.

A thread 1/n.

A) Conclusion
B) Results
C) Methodology and selection of data
D) Detailed statistics
E) Basic facts T72 and T62
F) Images of the individual tanks (ammo explosion)

CONCLUSION

Compared to the old T-62, the most modern T-72B3 Obr 2016 is 3,5 times more likely to have a catastrophic ammunition explosion. This is in a war where both tank models are exposed to the same enemy weapons and tactics and are in the same environment.

​​​​​​​The statistical analysis strongly suggests that the T-72 tank family has a severe design flaw that results in high combat losses for both tanks and crews.

Upgraded T-72Bs on a train somewhere in Ru. These aren’t T-72B3 Obr. 2022 (last photo), these have no Sosna-U or DVE-BS crosswind sensor. Instead, they have a 1PN96MT-02 thermal sight. These T-72s are probably better called a T-72B1 Obr. 2022 (or 2023), though that’s not official


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3d4703d72.jpeg
​​​​​​​

Those T72B Obr 2023's have incredible amount of ERA on them! Side skirts, turret etc, it appears as if it has double layer at some parts. Even smoke launchers (although I can't see the point)
Should be interesting to see what is the actual effectiveness if all that.

Might be fake ERA. There was a video from last year with Russian crew complaining that their ERA just had wood inside. Cost cutting or fraud most probably.

To get somewhat back to the aviation angle I was wondering but the very likely delivery of occidental aircraft to the Ukrainian AF (apparently the F-16 would be their first choice).

How long / difficult would it be to train Ukrainian pilots on those (I guess it is most likely already happening but how much time / effort would it get to have them actually competently operate) ? And, probably as much important if not more, what about all the support infrastructure ? Not only maintenance but a modern & efficient AF is an integrated technology project. IMHO having the pilots familiarised with the type is just a small part of the whole project.

Obviously not asking for specifics or possibly classified information but just a broad assessment.

800!

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ef70622cb2.png

You knew it was coming - after they’ve destroyed 500% of the HIMARS already…..

Gotta love the Russian bloggers.

ATTENTION!! The first Abrams tank is destroyed in Bakhmut!! 😂🤡


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....31813f89e6.png
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I have no expertise on this, but f-16 is the obvious choice in terms of europe logistics and available units. What I have seen is a lot of are reports that F-16 needs a really smooth strip, which Ukraine probably has not got any of any more.