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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 22nd Feb 2022 15:14


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11188223)
But as he has recognised them as independent states, then surely they are now abroad.

Of course, otherwise this wouldn't have worked.
If he would've asked permission to use forces in a peacekeeping act in DPR/LPR, he could only do that.
Now he was granted the right to send troops anywhere. Say, Poland to catch Suwalki gap if he wishes. Or UK.

Pali 22nd Feb 2022 16:46


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11188065)
Basurin added that "against this background, the decision of a number of states to stop air traffic over the territory of Ukraine looks reasonable and prudent, which will help to avoid human casualties and the repetition of tragedies with the crash of civilian airliners."

BTW, is there a legal way to declare no-fly zone in Ukraine which would be enforced by the West? Stealth capability is an enormous deterrent and I can imagine that Ukraine would be able to stand ground to ground attack but cannot cope with overwhelming air superiority of Russia at the same time. I understand we would be on the brink of major war yet we can't leave Ukraine alone and watch bleeding while doing nothing. Is there a legal way on how to enforce this?

ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 17:09


ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 17:27

Now that’s a flag anyone can see - Russia evacuating all its diplomats from Ukraine…..

https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1496177167578849283?s=21


https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496192950463782915?s=21

ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 17:29

What the markings on Russian vehicles may mean.


Mil-26Man 22nd Feb 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11188270)
BTW, is there a legal way to declare no-fly zone in Ukraine which would be enforced by the West? Stealth capability is an enormous deterrent and I can imagine that Ukraine would be able to stand ground to ground attack but cannot cope with overwhelming air superiority of Russia at the same time. I understand we would be on the brink of major war yet we can't leave Ukraine alone and watch bleeding while doing nothing. Is there a legal way on how to enforce this?

I guess the legal way to declare a no fly zone over Ukraine would be for Ukraine to request one, it's their airspace after all. Declaring an enforceable one would be an entirely different matter.

ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 17:48

Discussions on #Russia's state TV basically outlined Putin's strategy: invade Donbas and once there is a "provocation" by the Ukrainian military, start invading the rest of Ukraine.

Grinning ear-to-ear, a lawmaker predicts: "And there will be a provocation, I guarantee it."…


ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 17:59

Russian A-50 AWACS deployed forward to Belarus…


NutLoose 22nd Feb 2022 18:26

I thought this history lesson was very good.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a6b503f7b.jpeg

etudiant 22nd Feb 2022 19:38


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11188307)
Discussions on #Russia's state TV basically outlined Putin's strategy: invade Donbas and once there is a "provocation" by the Ukrainian military, start invading the rest of Ukraine.

Grinning ear-to-ear, a lawmaker predicts: "And there will be a provocation, I guarantee it."…

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/s...885642760?s=21

Having entered the dissident regions of the Ukraine, it is not obvious where to stop.
Afaik, the dissidents control about half the territory they claim,the rest is held by the Ukrainian Army.
Russia can perhaps crush that force, but then needs to guard a very messy frontier with no obvious natural barriers.
The Dnieper river is probably the logical frontier, but that implies a much deeper incursion.

MJ89 22nd Feb 2022 19:41

Its all well making these strong statements in parliament, hard line instant sanctions and some admiral speeches (maybe needed before they shot down an airliner) now that they have invaded. Again

But Putin has prepared Russia for all to see, example being the increasing of it gold reserve from 14 Billion 5 years ago to 132 Billion, a ten fold increase, moving away from dollar payments, looking for other buyers of gas and setting up the econemy to be more self sufficient. Making ex Chancellor Schröder a Gazprom director. chess piece after chess piece. check

200000 troops now surround ukraine, 2/3 of russian Total forces, and now are occupying the regions now recognized as Russian republics. These were however the biggest roadblocks stopping ukraine from Nato membership as a conflict however frozen was a no go. This is now overnight not the case.

Submit ukraine into nato overnight.
give 40 million people the protection they crave


EU membership would then be on the table down the road once those strict requirements are met.


Less Hair 22nd Feb 2022 19:49

Why all these procedures and formality when by now everybody already knows it is just fake and show? Who do they think they fool?

ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 19:56

Needs wide distribution…


Timelord 22nd Feb 2022 20:27

Where are all those “military experts” now who, during Afghanistan, declared that we didn’t need high end capabilities any more, there would be no more state v state conflicts and all we needed were armed Tucanos. Max Hastings to name but one.

ORAC 22nd Feb 2022 20:33

Seems a bit late in the day…


tartare 22nd Feb 2022 22:07

What an odious, smirking little man Putin is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60485967

EDIT: I see the Kiwis have summoned the Russian ambassador.
"We are vury dusappunted..."

ORAC 23rd Feb 2022 06:58


ORAC 23rd Feb 2022 07:00

Ukraine closing borders to Russia and Belarus and closing all transport links.

Any Russian diplomats who haven’t got out yet will have to go via another country.


ORAC 23rd Feb 2022 07:08

The EU has called for sanctions to be extended to Belarus, after new satellite images revealed new Russian military build-up on its soil. Belarus shares borders with 3 NATO nations.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...elarus/622878/


The Russian Incursion No One Is Talking About

While the world watches Ukraine, Moscow is making moves in neighboring Belarus, too.


Beamr 23rd Feb 2022 07:36


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11188374)
Why all these procedures and formality when by now everybody already knows it is just fake and show? Who do they think they fool?

Internal audience. The people of Russia. Putin conciders that formality his shield and defence.
Even Stalin was afraid of being overthrown, especially the days when oepration Barbarossa began and the news of german advance and collapse of the red army started to emerge. When they came for him on the morning of 22nd June 1941 he was certain that they were to take him out and shoot him. When that didn't happen it took him a few days to realize that others feared him more and took control.


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