I was thinking that. A S/N may tell you which factory it left and when, if the records are available, but not much beyond that unless the logistic records are better than I expect.

Aviation Content:

As a photographer who loves perfect reflections on water I think this is absolutely stunning imagery, plus those gorgeous autumnal tones.

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I would have thought the Poles would be been pretty forthright with their response if there was a strong suspicion the missile had originated from Russian territory.

Russia's strenuous denials last night were noteworthy. They're sh*t-scared of unintentionally drawing NATO into the conflict.

CNN: Ukraine tells US, allies it attempted missile interception near Poland.

Ukraine informed the U.S. and its allies that it tried to intercept a Russian missile near and in the timeframe of the missile strike on Poland on Nov. 15, CNN reported, citing a U.S. official.

It is currently unclear whether the missile that hit Poland was the same missile that Ukraine’s military attempted to intercept.

Serial numbers ? Surely there are multiples of NATO aircraft tracking all flignts/missiles .What can be more clear than that ?

Yes, but then last night it was being pinned on Russia, so either those in charge were not being briefed on the source or there were other reasons.
I would also doubt they would ever release NATO aircraft tracking data either as it will give Russia an indication of our tracking capabilities etc. so it’s who you believe, NATO, Russia or Ukraine, as it is their word only you would have to go on.
At least serial numbers can hopefully nail it down as factual.

I would have thought beyond serial numbers, the type of debris found would indicate where it came from - e.g. S-300, it's Ukranian; Iskander, it's Russian (unless it's neither and came from Belarus....)

Fairly unlikely as Ukraine is still using exclusively Soviet-built missiles in the larger categories ( S 300 etc ) which the damage seems to indicate this was.

Am I missing something fundamental here but surely it is easy to determine if the missile that hit Poland is the remains of an "offensive" one, or the remains of a "defensive" one.? Is it a missile or an anti-missile missile.

Exactly what I've been thinking. Too many reports saying 'most likely' and 'probably' etc..

For Heaven's sake, surely it was inevitable that sooner or later some ordnance wandered over the NATO border by mistake. It hit nothing of strategic importance nd all the signs are an error. By what side is irrelevant, Russian has absolutely no interest in blowing up Polish farm carts so surely best to leave out the hystrionics and assume no malice where error/blunder is far more likely.
In any case one instance of a couple of Polish farmers and a tractor most assuredly do NOT justify any escalation or retaliation unless malice can be attributed.
Sure, it may well cause alarm but NATO needs to be very calm and collected over such events lest the more hot-headed among us see this as an opportunity to do something daft.
The Ukraine is no more unable to fire an errant missile than is Russia - we would do well to remember that and act accordingly.

Thank God this time we seem to have seen sense but the potential in a more unfortunately placed error is all too clear to see.

We need very calm and pragmatic heads just now, fortunately the NATO responses adhered to that commendably in this case while the Russian answer was predictably wild and irrational.

Great care needs to be taken lest the orcs get ahead of themselves one day and are too blinded by their own bile and dogma that they can't see a way back.

Reminds me of the Belgique Mig 23 incident, an unfortunate accident no one could have predicted.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...armhouse-65521

Recently - due to shortages - Russia has sometimes been using any type of missile as an offensive weapon i.e. S 3oo which is ground - air as ground-ground.

Thank you. That seems fair judging by what else we have seen these past months.

I am not sure about any cover up conspiracy but where that missile landed is the longitude of Lviv industrial zone and the latitude of central Kyiv, which is interesting. Check Denys channel on youtube for the exact numbers.

Polish missile screwup?
 

A Ukrainian blogger and airline pilot Denys Davydov has highlighted the coincidence that the missile that landed in Poland had the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv.

Cock up is always more probable than conspiracy. Zelensky is also asking for access to the fragments of the missile which currently is being refused. Most unusual. The size of the crater seems overly large for a missile that was intended as a missile interceptor. I would have presumed that a small warhead would have been desirable in a high velocity / high manoeuvrability weapon. There's little point in lugging around a large amount of explosive if you can't hit the target.

I think you have the answer, when is it going to be picked up by the mainstream media? How much does western intelligence actually know and are prepared to reveal, I suspect it is an acceptance that it was a Russian careless mistake and are covering it up in the short term as they don't want to invoke Nato into a war with Russia on a cockup.

If, as alleged, it is the short 90 odd km range version, how did it get there?