Bleak Future for Kerch Coat Hanger
 



That backfired on a Russian reporter after a scoop.

This has for some time looked like their only possible way out of Ukraine.

Glorious message for Russian home audience as they generously pull back to original borders.
”We warned them lovingly that this was going to hurt us more than it would hurt them, and we thrashed them good and hard. Let this be a lesson to them, and to other uppity autonomous states. And we’ll do it again if necessary!”

Russia's Logic: ​​​​​​​A squeeze of lemmings?
 

We invaded Ukraine to protect Russian Speakers
We invaded Ukraine to ensure Crimea's access to water
We are demilitarising Ukraine
We are stopping NATO's expansion
We are getting rid of Nazi's
To improve and grow Russia into the former glory of the USSR Empire

All in all, Vlad, you have had a busy few weeks, not many people have done the damage to Russia that Vlad has achieved, and most of it with the willing public cheering him on.

A squeeze of lemmings?

Through action, a Man becomes a Hero

Through death, a Hero becomes a Legend

Through time, a Legend becomes a Myth

And by learning from the Myth, a Man takes action

How Ukraine's 'Ghost of Kyiv' legendary pilot was born - BBC News

Seems that the Russians don't have an army corps of engineers as the US does; the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, HPP, is a run of river system, there is no substantial body of water waiting to be released by blowing the dam, its not the Hoover gravity dam etc.... The result of blowing the dam wall is to achieve the label of international terrorists, and to deprive Ukraine of another power supply, and to give a reasonable justification for Ukraine to shut down the water access for Crimea. That hasn't been done as yet, as Ukraine is not a terrorist state, the only one doing that sort of extortion is Russia. As a response though, why would Ukraine assist Russia in recovering the canal from the natural recoursing of the water way downstream of the wreckage that would exist at Kakhovka? No good deed, etc. Any loss of roads on the left bank from the flooding, would certainly not be in Ukraine's interest to recover from, and the cost of the replacement dam can be forwarded to the ICJ as a claim against frozen Russian assets, adding to the ZNPP, the TPP's and the hundreds of billions of infrastructure and personal property losses from the criminal actions of the Kremlin. It is the Kremlin that decided that this wasn't a war, the damage to date is simple criminal action, not acts of war...

Here's a YT video about it...
'

To counter the drones with 40kg non armour piercin warheads that use GPS i propose chicken wire fencing around energy infrastrucure targets. When i drove around GCHQ in Cheltenham i am sure my car GPS was not working there so gps and glonass can be jammed.. This seems more cost effective than using high tech and expensive ordinance to take them out?

Sergey Elizarov, a councilman in the western Russian town of Tarusa, wrote to the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office about gross violations of the law by the local military registration and enlistment office during mobilisation.

They responded by mobilising him too. 🧵 below.

I think that your car's GPS is faulty. Is it in a Lada?

Superb piece by someone who knows KGB/FSB officers really well — and from there extrapolates convincingly about what will and what won’t deter Putin from going nuclear.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/a...r-that-he-was/

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was

Whilst dropping the dam is just the kind of insane action that might be attractive to the russians ( and they have history from WW2 of blowing Dnipr dams) , if you look at a topography map the left bank of the Dnipr is on average considerably lower elevation than the right. The flooding would be much worse south of the river as FDR alluded. The Khakova dam is perhaps currently holding back more water (18 cubic km) than the Hoover dam ( nominally 32 cubic km when Lake Mead is full, which it certainly is not in recent years).

Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.

@Usertim. Irradiate the Crimean water supply, then?

Or Pootan’s Bluff?

Well that is another sensible reason not to blow the dam, there would be no head of water for the canal. I doubt radiation would be an issue though after all that water washed through .

I think the canal is overstated in its importance, it is largely economic - 80% of the water was used for irrigation or industry. Russia may not care about that anymore. According to wiki (!) the area under cultivation in crimea declined by 90% between 2014 and 2017 ( those figures seem very high for such a short period though).

There is an adult in the house apparently. London's comments are consistent with the general media releases from the governments supporting Ukraines struggle against the criminal action of Putin. The most certain means to achieve a catastrophic outcome is to show indecision in the extent and certainty of destruction of all Russian forces within Ukraine should Putin elect to escalate. No matter what the purported justification is for an escalation, the least risk arises from a guarantee of response, which takes us back to the start of this saga, on 23 February 2022, our leaders did not show the resolve that was later shown in respect of the UK's guarantee of protection of Finland and Sweden during the period of their NATO membership processing. Had that been done for Ukraine, the 24 Feb would have come and gone without further incident beyond a hissy fit from the Kremlin. We got what we got, but the consequences of a repeat of vanilla responses is seen on what Vlad did on 24 February.

The insanity of NBC is that there is no scenario that exists that it ends in a win for any side that initiates such an escalation. We have come perilously close on 2 occasions to ending life on this planet by our own hand, and right now, failing to show the resolve to remove Vlad's SS troopers from Ukraine by conventional force backed up by the ability to escalate further is a least risk location for our bomb of a situation.

The maximum fall at the dam is 14 meters. There is a fair volume behind the wall certainly, however the terrain is as below. If Vlad was sitting on the high ground, then that would be a plan, it is a fantastic way to drown his own troops, shades of the little tank (Zed car T-72 B3) hiding in the pond as the tractors pass by. The entrained debris would put paid to the canal with a reasonable expectation of a great success for Ukraine by Vlad Putinating his own infrastructure. Since the destruction of the easternmost bridges into Crimea long time back, the road to Crimea is by way of the lowlands east of Kherson. Flooding that immediately before winter is going to definitely be taking it's place in the military strategy manuals.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c725a16a70.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e5bc9a6f3b.png



Hard sell back to the home crowd on that. Putin generally doesn't care, but the people that are currently around him that can take him out may care a bit more, if Putin loses public support, he goes from shark to baby seal in a 1.95 seconds. ( 6 story drop, Vo=0, g=9.81 m/sec...)
Crimea has a special place in the Russian psyche, which is odd, as it really has little to do with them, but they apparently like the sandy beaches. Would have thought Sochi did that too.


The debris will take out the canal all by itself. It is on the low side of the water course, 14m is not as much as it would be with a gravity dam, but there is a fair old volume to be dumped, and it will make a mess on the low side. Which is Putin-side.

Kind of neat, get named as a terrorist state and take out your own reason for any public support, which is the only thing between the circling sharks and Putin becoming a pavement pizza beside Lenin's tomb.

As for Kherson, it still beggars belief that Ukraine never took the bridge out early in the war when the town was initially threatened.

The Ukrainian guide to taking down a drone with a personal weapon.

well that's a waste of ammo...

here are representative ballistics for a 20 degree elevation for .223 55gr and 7.62x39... The Ukrainians guidance guarantees a miss.

If they don't have tracer, they are mainly wasting ammo. A high deflection shot against a small target like that, is like clay pigeon shooting with a .22 instead of 12 Gauge. Heck, Ukraine could get some good ol' boys out of 'bama to go plinking if they give free ammo, and beer. Not many roadsigns survive first encounter with the boys with the "roll tide" crimson T shirt, a Ram 1500, and an AR-15. Seriously, get the economy pack magazines, tracer and enough beer n' guns, n' more beer, and set the guys out along the expected approach paths... get rid of the deflection hassles with a skirmish line of beer cans n' ammo. :ok: the boys'll need a hunting' license... when is drone season?



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bd1234e6fc.png
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0d51d739cd.png

The "evacuation" of civilians from Kherson has begun.

Twitter

Martial law introduced in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions

The Decree on the introduction of martial law in the new territories. It will be in effect from midnight - RIA

What does this mean?

You can read about it below, it includes the suspension of activities of political parties and other public and religious associations that "undermine defense and security"


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a16d07aea.jpeg