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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 05:21

Run down this list, it is depressing, it appears while Russia and the west are concentrating on Ukraine the rest of the world are trying to settle old scores.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors

FUMR 3rd Nov 2022 09:31


Originally Posted by ChrisJ800 (Post 11324584)
putin palace would be in range of air strike missile strike or even helicopter assault such as what took out Bin Laden.

My point is that, Crimea or not, his "palace" remains vulnerable to a host of possible attacks.

peter we 3rd Nov 2022 09:57


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11324585)
Still don't understand why with all these KA-52 shootdowns, we haven't one instance of the ejection system being used.
Possibly out of envelope, too low, slow...?

A lot of the crash sites don't have bodies or seats.. I assumed they ejected. A few didn't.

ORAC 3rd Nov 2022 10:54

Russians have removed their flag from the main administrative building in Kherson. In addition, according to locals multiple Russian checkpoints around Kherson city have been abandoned.

Russian source on situation in Kherson

"Troops are withdrawn from the right bank of the Dnieper, several formations remain, the bulk are already on the left"

"A zone has been created on the left bank 15 km from the Dnieper, from which people are forcibly evacuated"

fdr 3rd Nov 2022 11:26

Might be the right time to invite the remaining victims conscripts to seek better treatment, food and care, all available from the Ukrainian side. Once they are concluded their "defence" of Kherson would seem prudent to disperse the Ukrainian forces as Vlad has been known to be a sore loser.


Ripton 3rd Nov 2022 11:28

This is way beyond stupidity



NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 11:51


Originally Posted by Ripton (Post 11324792)

Hahahaha, you couldn't make it up..

Interestingly Moscow appears to be suffering Blackouts too.... Ohh dear never mind..


AVIATION CONTENT:

Russian jet downed.


Antonovsky Bridge ferry service destroyed?


Clobbering the bridge in daylight.


Ninthace 3rd Nov 2022 11:57


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11324773)
Russians have removed their flag from the main administrative building in Kherson. In addition, according to locals multiple Russian checkpoints around Kherson city have been abandoned.



Russian source on situation in Kherson

"Troops are withdrawn from the right bank of the Dnieper, several formations remain, the bulk are already on the left"

"A zone has been created on the left bank 15 km from the Dnieper, from which people are forcibly evacuated"

The left bank is the more low lying land, are the Russians about to advance the muddy season with a watery addition of their own and then blame on the Nazi Satanist LGBTs?

FUMR 3rd Nov 2022 12:08

Ninthace, I mentioned that in a post several days ago and was told by our pprune experts that the Russians wouldn't be so stupid!!! Hmm, like you, I remain unconvinced.

NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 12:15

Stormer taking out a UAV


Timmy Tomkins 3rd Nov 2022 12:17


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11324287)
ORAC

Do you mean a flotilla made up of NATO ships from various nations (similar to Operation Sharp Guard), or, as the Turks have already done, provide ships to escort and they (Turkey) are in NATO?
Wonder if the Romanians or Bulgarians are contributing to the escort mission. They are in NATO as well.

I posted that before I knew the Turks were escorting but in any event it is an opportunity for other NATO nations to demonstrate intent and double call Putrid's bluff. Erdogan has done that more than once, successfully (re fighter shot down a few years back, no repercussions) and the western powers not showing resolve will only drag this out longer.

NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 12:29

Aviation Content,

low level heli stuff..


NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 12:31

Something is happening up near the dam that is worrying, explosions reported etc.


FUMR 3rd Nov 2022 13:43

Well that was taken yesterday evening Nutty. Had it been anything significant it would have made the news by now I reckon.

NutLoose 3rd Nov 2022 14:10

Looks like Kherson has been abandoned.




Usertim 3rd Nov 2022 16:17

There are a few things about blowing the dam.
  • The HEPP there distributes its electricity primarily to the occupied regions of ZP and Kherson oblasts. So they do themselves no favours by removing the facility - they need it more than the ukranians right now.
  • The flood plain in the event of failure would mainly be the south (or left) bank , again occupied.
  • There is as well the issue of cooling water for the NPP at Energodar and what might happen there, and of course the winds are mainly westerly, again towards russian territory.
The russians can easily remove the roadway above the gates and eliminate it as a crossing point. No need for them to risk all the bad consequences above along with a huge international backlash.

I think the dam is safe unless the russians are really stupid. . Antonovski bridge though I am sure they drop in an instant when they withdraw, even that brings them huge problems - an end to any hope of ever taking Odesa ( I know but I am sure it is still in their heads). Plus it allows UAF to redeploy a lot of very good forces\resources from Kherson to ZP oblast.

albatross 3rd Nov 2022 18:11

Unfortunately, Usertim, from everything we are seeing at the moment it appears that the Russians and their leaders are, in fact and deed, really stupid.
Opening this thread every morning is preceded by the thought: “I wonder what the blundering morons have done now?”
To think we once feared these twits for their military prowess and weapons tech. Now we fear their inability to extricate themselves from this mess will lead to demented actions.
They pose a “Clear and Present Danger” to the planet.

At the commencement of hostilities I reread Tom Clancy’s “Red Storm Rising” the parallels are interesting, especially the mindsets of the Russian “leadership”.


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11324928)
There are a few things about blowing the dam.
  • The HEPP there distributes its electricity primarily to the occupied regions of ZP and Kherson oblasts. So they do themselves no favours by removing the facility - they need it more than the ukranians right now.
  • The flood plain in the event of failure would mainly be the south (or left) bank , again occupied.
  • There is as well the issue of cooling water for the NPP at Energodar and what might happen there, and of course the winds are mainly westerly, again towards russian territory.
The russians can easily remove the roadway above the gates and eliminate it as a crossing point. No need for them to risk all the bad consequences above along with a huge international backlash.

I think the dam is safe unless the russians are really stupid. . Antonovski bridge though I am sure they drop in an instant when they withdraw, even that brings them huge problems - an end to any hope of ever taking Odesa ( I know but I am sure it is still in their heads). Plus it allows UAF to redeploy a lot of very good forces\resources from Kherson to ZP oblast.


MPN11 3rd Nov 2022 18:18

I do recall my time at MoD in War Plans & Policy, and the calculations/estimates we had been working from to determine "The Threat". When the USSR collapsed, we discovered the Russian Bear had bad teeth and broken claws. It was ever thus. Did anyone think they had got better, once the Oligarchs got their hands on the fiscal levers of the State and Defence funding? It had been a "Paper Bear" for decades.

Wokkafans 3rd Nov 2022 18:46

GRAPHIC

Your (Russian) tank is hit by an ATGM and two of the three crew bail out as the tank starts to catch fire. One of the two crew realises the driver is trapped and climbs back into the smoking turret to rotate it out of the way, at significant risk to himself. As he climbs back off, and the driver is nearly clear of the tank, it's hit by a second Stugna ATGM. Sometimes it's just a few seconds between life and death.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

The Helpful Stacker 3rd Nov 2022 19:27


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11325006)
GRAPHIC

Your (Russian) tank is hit by an ATGM and two of the three crew bail out as the tank starts to catch fire. One of the two crew realises the driver is trapped and climbs back into the smoking turret to rotate it out of the way, at significant risk to himself. As he climbs back off, and the driver is nearly clear of the tank, it's hit by a second Stugna ATGM. Sometimes it's just a few seconds between life and death.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

If the crew had chosen to surrender I'm sure the driver could have taken his time getting out.

Fair play to his colleague who climbed back into a burning vehicle to shift the turret though.

It's difficult to feel sympathy for members of an occupying force though.


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