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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Confusious 3rd Dec 2022 16:53

From CNN today:

There have been 17 cases of embassies receiving either letter bombs, false bomb letters or letters containing animals parts, like the eyes of cows and pigs, according to Kuleba.“This campaign is aimed at sowing fear,” Kuleba told CNN in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Friday.

When asked who he thought was behind the letters, Kuleba told CNN, “I feel tempted to say, to name Russia straight away, because first of all you have to answer the question, 'who benefits?'"

“Maybe this terror response is the Russian answer to the diplomatic horror that we created for Russia on the international arena, and this is how they try to fight back while they are losing the real diplomatic battles one after another,” he added.

The Helpful Stacker 3rd Dec 2022 17:18


Originally Posted by Confusious (Post 11341742)
A desperate Tweet from a desperate T*at!

Desperate? Usually I'd agree but...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2236712.html

https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/08/two-i...hike-16065858/

Usertim 3rd Dec 2022 17:28


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341739)
I'll just translate a headline of today's Russian newspaper for you:

"Media: because of price increases Britons have to eat their pets' leftovers. British families have to choose between heating and food".

Unfortunately they are just picking up on reporting from the BBC - which typically for the BBC relies on hearsay from one person - so it is not really propaganda, rather reporting international news from their perspective.

The BBC report is the almost verbatim source for the independent article above

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-63800953


Confusious 3rd Dec 2022 17:28


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11341759)

Yes, I had previously read that and my comment wasn't directed at those in the reports. My 'desperate' remark was directed at the Rusky who headlined it. Needed to clear that up!

ORAC 3rd Dec 2022 18:05

Excellent explanatory thread.

Some people have been wondering why Russians have concentrated several brigades near a tiny town called Vuhledar, which approximately occupies only 5 square kilometers, and what makes Russians so obsessed with the idea to take it?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...647057408.html

Wokkafans 3rd Dec 2022 18:16


MPN11 3rd Dec 2022 18:25

You sad, deluded, sh*t.

ORAC 3rd Dec 2022 22:06

Indirect confirmation if large scale Russian loses due to hypothermia. “Fell asleep and didn’t wake up again”….


NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 22:13

Czech refurbishing 90 T72 for Ukraine, possibly the US funded ones?


NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 22:23


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341871)
Indirect confirmation if large scale Russian loses due to hypothermia. “Fell asleep and didn’t wake up again”….

Early on in the chat, the comment that a lot are coming home in Zinc is referring to the coffins the Russians use to transport bodies, I remember a post from Belogrod of locals complaining about dumped zinc Coffins turning up in the garbage.

see


NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 22:34

Another captured T90m


albatross 4th Dec 2022 00:30


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11341782)

So Putrid is basically admitting that previous attacks were random attacks against civilians with no military targets in mind. Interesting!

Sue Vętements 4th Dec 2022 01:14


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11338739)
because of price increases Britons have to eat their pets' leftovers. British families have to choose between heating and food"​​​​​​​

No ... that's because of brexit !

fdr 4th Dec 2022 01:18


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11341782)

Wow.

was interested to do a mind map of how you get from reality to Vlads frontal lobes. Found it had already been mapped out accurately.:}


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c8f3230e9e.jpg

fdr 4th Dec 2022 01:25


Originally Posted by albatross (Post 11341906)
So Putrid is basically admitting that previous attacks were random attacks against civilians with no military targets in mind. Interesting!

"... consciousness of guilt... "


Evidentiary rules allow a prosecutor to introduce testimony that tends to show that the defendants actions prove he knew he was Russian guilty (at least of something).

fdr 4th Dec 2022 01:41


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341877)
Early on in the chat, the comment that a lot are coming home in Zinc is referring to the coffins the Russians use to transport bodies, I remember a post from Belogrod of locals complaining about dumped zinc Coffins turning up in the garbage.

see



https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1586674911287844864


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341871)
Indirect confirmation if large scale Russian loses due to hypothermia. “Fell asleep and didn’t wake up again”….


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341655)
I would imagine this is true across many utilities and industries….


There have been 17 cases of embassies receiving either letter bombs, false bomb letters or letters containing animals parts, like the eyes of cows and pigs, according to Kuleba.“This campaign is aimed at sowing fear,” Kuleba told CNN in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Friday.

When asked who he thought was behind the letters, Kuleba told CNN, “I feel tempted to say, to name Russia straight away, because first of all you have to answer the question, 'who benefits?'"

“Maybe this terror response is the Russian answer to the diplomatic horror that we created for Russia on the international arena, and this is how they try to fight back while they are losing the real diplomatic battles one after another,” he added.
People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C because essential utility workers have been mobilised – even after the supposed end of mobilisation – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...861106176.html
​​​​​​​

As the 8th largest zinc producer, putting out about 1% of the global total, seems the Russians should be looking at better uses for zinc, like batteries.

In the meantime, taking the lead from Wagner, perhaps this would resolve their logistics problem with 200's, and their foreign embassy deliveries of Russian delicacies.

Innovative device, already employed in Russian body armour and helmets for Mobiks and general conscripts. (not suitable for former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin apparently)


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3c7c059edf.jpg



ORAC 4th Dec 2022 05:57

Belarus 🧵 We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine.

Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).

After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.

Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.

Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.

The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.

We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.

However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.

On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.

Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).

Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.

​​​​​​​We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.

fdr 4th Dec 2022 09:54


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341958)
Belarus 🧵 We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine.

Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).

After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.

Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.

Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.

The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.

We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.

However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.

On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.

Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).

Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.

We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.

Ukraine has shown restraint to Russia. Belarus supporting an attack would be an act of war, and the constraints on response on military targets within Belarus may be much more liberal. Not a desirable situation, but Belarus is playing with fire.

sir 4th Dec 2022 10:27


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11342029)
Ukraine has shown restraint to Russia. Belarus supporting an attack would be an act of war, and the constraints on response on military targets within Belarus may be much more liberal. Not a desirable situation, but Belarus is playing with fire.

not only that but surely if Russia is allowed to bring a neighbour to the game, Ukraine could also bring a neighbour in.

_Agrajag_ 4th Dec 2022 10:49

Surely Ukraine is playing this very, very careful when it comes to taking to war to either Russia or Belarus. One stand out feature of this war has been the way Ukraine has done a pretty outstanding PR job, the other is that much of that good PR hinges on the evidence presented that it is wholly Russia that is the aggressor. They risk damaging that by overtly attacking Russian, or Belarusian, territory. In turn, that could result in a reduction of military aid to Ukraine, perhaps, as Ukraine might be viewed as a NATO proxy by some states.

There is some evidence that there are partisans within Russia, and, perhaps, Belarus, that are working on the side of Ukraine, either directly or indirectly because they have an interest in overthrowing Putin's regime. Until now there has been plausible deniability between the mysterious fires and explosions within Russia and the actions of Ukrainian forces. It has to be in Ukraine's best interests, in terms of maintaining wide international support, to stick to that tactic, rather than risk a long-range overt attack into either Russian or Belarusian territory.


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