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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

FlightDetent 5th Nov 2022 12:56

The bottleneck between inland and Crimea is south of the Dnipro river. While inhabitated, the partially salty
marshlands over the left bank only carry a few distinct GLOCs from Crimea to the expected stand-off line.

As long as UA benefits from longer range artillery targeting their supply lines, the RU military presence on the left bank will be withering choked.

ORAC 5th Nov 2022 13:26

Drunken mobilised Russians in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, have been arrested for slaughtering cows, stealing a car and opening fire on their own side, according to the Baza Telegram channel. Translation ⬇️

Fitter2 5th Nov 2022 13:47


It does look like Brize is busy these days
And Fairford?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FguvfgGX...jpg&name=small

fdr 5th Nov 2022 14:30


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11325841)
Regarding the stand-off in Kherson, do we see another Berlin shaping up here? Would Vlad feel right at home with another split city, seeded with a fifth column on the west side? Has he found in the river a comfortable dividing line to solidify his hold on the fourth ‘Russified’ province, with a nice water trickle for Crimea? Could it be a potential generous case of: “You can have the west bank, and in exchange everything east of there is now more permanently ours mine.”(?)

Vlad would obviously like that, as it meets his goals that were purported at some time in the general rant between denazification to removing satan. Pretty sure that the answer from Ukraine to that would be continued demolition of Vlad's little helpers, with all of the visor of 9 months of war crimes and criminal acts by the Russians. Ukraine will negotiate when Vlad is removed from the Kremlin, or when Russians are off Ukrainian soil.

Now the mid terms have a potential to place some burden onto Europeans, but having Vlad anywhere other than Russia is an open invitation to be invaded once more. Vlad's working up to a trillion in reparations, I can't imagine giving Vlad all that he wanted is going to temper his behaviour. it would be a poisoned chalice for Vlad, Ukraine can range most of the east of Ukraine, so can continue to mess up Crimea's MSRs, the Kerch bridge remains a future target of opportunity. As Crimea is legally Ukrainian territory, as is the rest of Ukraine occupied by Vlad and his Z team, how Russia assumes there is a happy ending to their action seems out of place.

Every day increases the risk that Russia implodes into revolt, that may be considered optimistic, I don't think Russia falling apart is a great idea, but the potential for that to occur should be getting weighed against the effort to do a heave ho out of a window for the leader that turned Russia's military might into the second most powerful army in Ukraine. Doesn't matter what they do over winter, they have taken their most effective troops, and trainers and squandered them through the foreseeable effects of Vlad's managed corrupt enterprise. They are not going to recover the 1/4M front end that have been 200'd or 300'd in the first 9 months, nor recover armaments that are back to 50's era with a few 1892 vintage thrown in. None of that is coming back soon with an economy that is finally starting to tank even on the pumped up figures given by the Kremlin.

flash8 5th Nov 2022 16:03


Stop the bickering guys. Continue posting interesting information. But PLEASE do your best to check that its authentic. There has been more and more rubbish posted of late. If you're not sure then don't post!
The media seem to have no qualms about printing any old rubbish, some of it quoted from one man band telegram channels... you know obviously substantiated and checked for facts... not. The absolute one-sided slant of the media (especially in the UK) make me reluctant to leave my temporary drunken bar roaming in Tashkent and return home (Moscow in my case) lest I am shot on arrival for some unspecified alleged crime.


gizmo71 5th Nov 2022 17:12


Originally Posted by pasta (Post 11325809)
Also the observation that, 30 years after GW1 (which you'd have thought they were watching) the Russians seem to think that a weapon that can travel at Mach 12 (allegedly) is better than one that can accurately hit its target.

That would be true if the Russians' aim was to maximise military effect and minimise collateral damage, but that's not their modus operandi. If want you want is unstoppable terror with no regard for what's actually hit, and don't consider the financial or political cost to be important, hypersonic missiles are just the ticket.

Revnetwork 5th Nov 2022 17:22


Originally Posted by flash8 (Post 11325924)
The media seem to have no qualms about printing any old rubbish, some of it quoted from one man band telegram channels... you know obviously substantiated and checked for facts... not. The absolute one-sided slant of the media (especially in the UK) make me reluctant to leave my temporary drunken bar roaming in Tashkent and return home (Moscow in my case) lest I am shot on arrival for some unspecified alleged crime.

I havent seen any of the MSM use unverified information yet despite the obvious pro-Ukraine slant. Ukraine are the good guys anyway but If you hold a British passport the Russians would quite happily shoot you just for that based on what we see everyday on Solovyov's TV show. I''d advise you dont return to Moscow any time soon.

tdracer 5th Nov 2022 18:40


Originally Posted by gizmo71 (Post 11325949)
That would be true if the Russians' aim was to maximise military effect and minimise collateral damage, but that's not their modus operandi. If want you want is unstoppable terror with no regard for what's actually hit, and don't consider the financial or political cost to be important, hypersonic missiles are just the ticket.

Yet another parallel to Hitler and his vengeance weapons. Lots and lots of money and manpower devoted to the V-1 and V-2 programs that ultimately would have far better invested in existing weapons programs instead of being used to terrorize London (not to mention the starvation of large parts of the German population when the majority of the potato crop was diverted to making alcohol fuel for the V-2).

NutLoose 5th Nov 2022 18:51

Any truth in the rumour Poland may be trying to adapt the SU24 to carry Stormshadow?


NutLoose 5th Nov 2022 18:59

As for Kherson, Would they not skirt it if possible encircling it and cutting those off inside the city from the south and giving aid to those coming out until they understand what’s happening inside and the can control the situation?.

albatross 5th Nov 2022 19:15

Perhaps they can send one to Putrid at his mansion.
You know, just as a neighbourly “House Warming Gift”.

MPN11 5th Nov 2022 19:22


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11325994)
As for Kherson, Would they not skirt it if possible encircling it and cutting those off inside the city from the south and giving aid to those coming out until they understand what’s happening inside and the can control the situation?.

In that scenario I would worry about the fate of the remaining civilians. We have seen how the Slavic hordes do retribution already.

Spunky Monkey 5th Nov 2022 20:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11325570)
I agree,to study it is to learn it’s weak points and introduce work arounds that far outweigh the operational effect of one tank and it aids you being able to kill others of the type with your current fleet.. All I can think is they maybe captured more than one, and the other was kept quiet and whisked away to interested parties..

Its a Tank, not a nuclear sub. They have been shown to be absolute garbage and useful only to African nations for parades and keeping the local populace quiet / impressed.
Its 2022 not 1960. There is very little on that vehicle the West doesn't already know about and that they haven't already learnt to defeat - Javelin, Stuga, NLAW, Swingfire, Brimstone, TOW, Hellfire, Spike, Nimrod, Mosquito - heck even a Carl Gustav would knock off some bits.
Get the tank in play and concentrate on the big picture.

The Yanks could turn its hand to building an improved but basic T80 and pass it onto the Ukes in about 8 months. Flooding the battlefield with T80s but evidently tanks are no longer where its at. Light role and Mech infantry seems to be the Daddy again.

NutLoose 5th Nov 2022 20:39

Have you read up on it’s defensive systems they have built into it, they a formidable.
however it has apparently given up its secrets.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/worl...fence-systems/



The technical reports will include the inspection of the tank’s active protection system called Afghanit, which can intercept missiles at short range.

While the T-90M, which costs $5 million and has a crew of three, has the standard explosive reactive armour, its main metal composite protection was a secret.

Papers will also be written on the T-90M's computerised fire-control system as well and the 125mm gun’s ability to fire guided shells that have a longer range and are up to 20 per cent more accurate than Russia’s standard tank guns. The tank has the latest Russian aiming device, giving it a “hunter-killer engagement capability” where the tank commander uses a panoramic sight with thermal vision to track targets, something standard on most Nato systems.

“The T-90M has got a much more modern suite of explosive reactive armour designed around the shape of the vehicle and its turret,” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the Rusi think tank.

“This tank will undergo technical exploitation that can be highly valuable in terms of next-generation lethality.”

The vehicle also has an upgraded weapon systems with a revised auto-loader that can fit longer projectiles that have much greater penetration than the standard T-90 variant developed in the nineties.A T-90M that was spotted in 2021 also had a telescopic mast fitted with optical sensors, which will be examined if it is on the captured vehicle.

“This will add to the information that the West has gained by its access to captured Russian equipment that include missiles that have crashed in Ukraine without exploding,” said Brig Ben Barry, a Russian military specialist.

“Like the tank, we will now be able to analyse those in detail and work out better ways to stop them.”

Brig Barry added scientists would now be able to discover the “the weaknesses of Russian armour” that would help Nato and its allies defeat Moscow’s most advanced modern tanks.Fourteen years passed before the US was able to get hold of a T-72 tank when it became operational but now it has the latest T-90 only two years after it entered service.

It had been thought that the Russians were holding back their advanced T-90Ms, which only became operational in April 2020, for fear they would be needed in a wider conflict with Nato.

But their heavy tank losses, which include 380 captured intact by Ukraine, have led to Moscow deploying its most modern arms to hold back the Ukrainian offensive that, western officials disclosed on Tuesday, was penetrating further into Russian-seized territory.

While the Russians have ordered 400 of the new tanks, it is believed only 40 have been delivered to the 1st Guards Tank Army, which receives the latest equipment, as it is supposed to defend Moscow and is the most loyal to President Vladimir Putin.

The ability to examine the new turret will “provide a greater level of insight into its armour composition”, said Andrew Galer of Janes, the defence intelligence provider

Foreign militaries will be able to examine its internal mission systems as well as “their impact on crew reaction times, possible blind spots and real use statistics”, he added.

However, all tanks are still vulnerable to the “top-down” missile attack on their turrets, which potentially accounted for the first ever T-90M being knocked out in the summer.



Spunky Monkey 5th Nov 2022 20:50

No I haven't and I doubt they are.
They still need fuel and ammo which in short supply will overcome any supposed advanced tech.
It was a piece of siht in the 90s and worse now.
Same as the BTR, MTLB, BMP 1-3, etc

The Helpful Stacker 5th Nov 2022 20:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11326025)
Have you read up on it’s defensive systems they have built into it, they a formidable.
however it has apparently given up its secrets.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/worl...fence-systems/

Being theoretically "formidable" hasn't seemingly carried over to its practical application.

Onyx has recorded at least 20 T-90 and 2 T-90M variants destroyed since they were first deployed to Ukraine.

NutLoose 5th Nov 2022 21:06

You are missing the point, the T90 and T90M which this is appear to be are poles apart and the T90M has been in service as their top of the range main battle tank a scant couple of years, this is the cream of their crop and as such is of interest to the West because if WW3 ever happened we would need to understand their defence modes against our latest weapons, their secret armour construction and how to deal with them or develop weapons that can….

Only a fool would go into battle not knowing their enemies capabilities and deterrents against missiles if you had the opportunity to learn those secrets, , equally I would assume Russia would like some of the West latest armour to study, probably one reason why the Abrams, Challenger or latest Leo is absent from Ukraine.

It is also probably the reason the latest Russian armour has been lacking in the field and is now only appearing due to the losses inflicted upon them and shortages there off.

but hey, I’m just an interested party putting my view across, but it all makes sense to me.

READ

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/0...the-americans/

Tartiflette Fan 5th Nov 2022 21:41


Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey (Post 11326013)
The Yanks could turn its hand to building an improved but basic T80 and pass it onto the Ukes in about 8 months. Flooding the battlefield with T80s but evidently tanks are no longer where its at. Light role and Mech infantry seems to be the Daddy again.

How are the Americans suddenly going to be able to turbo-charge their planning and development by a factor of 10 or 15 ? Please let us into the magic secret.

Wokkafans 5th Nov 2022 22:33

Link deleted by Twitter

Winemaker 5th Nov 2022 23:34


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11326040)
How are the Americans suddenly going to be able to turbo-charge their planning and development by a factor of 10 or 15 ? Please let us into the magic secret.

Yep. I worked as a mechanical designer in both the marine and aviation fields and can testify that just the basic tooling design and fabrication bit is not an overnight job. The jigs and fixtures to mass produce a product like a tank, as well as the lead times for major castings, engines, gearboxes, loaders, guns, etc. are not simple 'write and order' things. Yes, stuff can be pushed through in an emergency, but setting up or modifying a factory to mass produce something like an advanced tank is not trivial. 8 months? No way.


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