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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 27th Sep 2022 10:07


Originally Posted by petit plateau (Post 11303448)
It seems at leastl three Nordsteam gas pipelines are damaged (i.e. both Nordsteam 1 and Nordsteam 2). The Germans are reporting 7 bar remaining surface pressure. That is consistent with rupturing them at just over 70m of water depth. The water depths near the Danish island of Bornholm are of approximately that depth. It is somewhat unclear which pipes are damaged. There are 4 x 48" diameter pipes, and so far indications are somewhat ambiguous but suggest that perhaps three pipes are affected, but that could be confusion/misunderstanding in the reporting. Needless to say it takes a lot to rupture even one 48" pipeline of 100-bar+ pressure rating at any water depths, let alone multiple pipelines.at over 70m water depth. It is possible (gosh) that there is aviation activity relating to this but I have not looked too closely at that Seahawk track, or any other track. These are of course within NATO member state waters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...usly-overnight

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ne-2022-09-27/

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status...50988744331274

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2


The problem with that is there are more than one countries gas pipelines flowing under the sea, and they have just become legitimate targets if it is deemed to be a western act of sabotage.



petit plateau 27th Sep 2022 10:13


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11303461)
The proble with that is there are more than one countries gas pipelines flowing under the sea, and they have just become legitimate targets if it is deemed to be a western act of sabotage.

Not much chance of it being a Western act of sabotage.Most likely is a Russian one so as to be able to invoke force majeure clauses, as the compressor oil leak is about as convincing as dog ate my homework.Anyway NordStream AG statement confirms 2 x NS1 strings affected. No comment re NS2 as this NorStream AG legal entity is not operator of that asset. But we know that at least one of the NS2 lines is affected, perhaps both. So this could be either 3 or 4 lines affected.

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-in...-pipeline-526/

My guess is next action is request from Russia to send vessels and aircraft etc to investigate leak ......

Wokkafans 27th Sep 2022 10:43

Danish Energy Authority announces a state of emergency over Nordstream.

Link:


ORAC 27th Sep 2022 11:42

Chechen troops raping mobilised conscripts when they arrive as reinforcements…

…”In the area of ​​the settlement Berestovoye, where our military repulse the attacks of the Ukrainian nationalist battalions, an unprecedented incident occurred. Two servicemen of the People's Militia of the DPR, [names redacted] and who were mobilized from Dokuchaevsk and worked in the city administration before being mobilised, were raped by Chechens in front of their colleagues. The soldiers who wanted to protect our guys were threatened with weapons and promised to shoot them like dogs.“….

DaveReidUK 27th Sep 2022 12:01


Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst (Post 11303391)
Just noticed on FR24 8 Turkish Air flights in trail on their way from various points in turkey to Moscow. There may be more Im not seeing. Thought it a bit strange. I imagine they are pretty much empty and will be full on their return?

If that's the case, no doubt the fares being charged will more than cover the cost of the outbound leg too ...

NutLoose 27th Sep 2022 12:07

Well who would have guessed... :rolleyes:


Poor bastards.

MJ89 27th Sep 2022 12:31


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11303523)
Well who would have guessed... :rolleyes:



https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...87624081690626

Poor bastards.

whats gona change in 2 days..
The republics are revolting, everything falling apart. stock markets diving worse then it fell on the 24th. do fear he might be stupid enough to try what do they say. escalate to de-esculate.

ORAC 27th Sep 2022 12:58

New development around Lyman:

According Pro-Russian sources Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the Siversky Donetsk River. First UA recon units in armored cars reached Torsk and Kreminna. Russian troops abandoned the forest. Only 1 supply line left to Lyman.


ORAC 27th Sep 2022 13:06

Russian military reaches new level of hilarity as the list of items conscripts must bring themselves is EVERYTHING.

Helmet, bullet proof vest, first aid kit, sleeping bag, boots, knife..on and on..


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c8d33024d.jpeg

Wokkafans 27th Sep 2022 13:10

First pic of the Nordstream leak.

Link:


M609 27th Sep 2022 13:40

Swedish news outlet SVT is reporting that seismic sensors recorded explosions close to the pipelines on Monday. Link

MikeSnow 27th Sep 2022 13:40

Video footage of the leaks:


Later edit: You may want to watch it directly on Twitter, for some reason it seems to play at a low resolution when it's played directly from here.

Flyhighfirst 27th Sep 2022 14:04


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11303420)
Russia will claim its homeland gets attacked if fights continue in the inherited occupied areas and then call out full war. Time to not blink first.


That doesn’t make any sense. What will happen is nothing! Business as usual. Crimea has already had a referendum is now considered part of Russia (in the Russians eyes) and it has been attacked. So there’s your answer for you.

DaveReidUK 27th Sep 2022 15:00


Originally Posted by M609 (Post 11303603)
Swedish news outlet SVT is reporting that seismic sensors recorded explosions close to the pipelines on Monday. Link

"SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday. "There is no doubt that these are explosions," says Bjorn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN.

The first explosion was recorded at 2.03am on the night of Monday and the second at 7.04pm on Monday evening.

The warnings about the gas leaks came from the maritime administration at 1.52pm and 8.41pm on Monday, respectively, after ships detected bubbles on the surface.

SVT has obtained the coordinates of the measured explosions and they are in the same area where the gas leaks were registered."

Russia-Ukraine war: explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines as gas leaks into Baltic Sea – live (theguardian.com)

jolihokistix 27th Sep 2022 15:17

Neither Crimea nor Russia have been ‘officially’ attacked. We need to be clear on this. Ukraine has been scrupulous in this regard.

The reason for various fires and explosions has been kept deliberately vague, as to whether it was local resistance, infiltration teams, things launched and falling from improvised/improvised Ukrainian weapons systems, or carelessness with vodka, matches and cigaret/cigarette butts. Conditions do apply.

M609 27th Sep 2022 15:40

Petroleum Safety Authority Norway gave this alert yesterday: Observations of unidentified drones/aircraft offshore

Humm....... coincidence?

MikeSnow 27th Sep 2022 15:44


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11303647)
Neither Crimea nor Russia have been ‘officially’ attacked. We need to be clear on this. Ukraine has been scrupulous in this regard.

That's no longer true:


KYIV, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine's top military chief claimed responsibility on Wednesday for a series of strikes on Russian air bases on the annexed peninsula of Crimea, including one that caused devastation at the Saky military facility last month.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ea-2022-09-07/

Ninthace 27th Sep 2022 15:45

I would have described sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline as the the very acme of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

NutLoose 27th Sep 2022 15:53

And the target for today is.........


MPN11 27th Sep 2022 15:55


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11303661)
I would have described sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline as the the very acme of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

But … in a twisted mind that still represents long-term punishment for the perfidious West. If the West isn’t buying the gas anyway, it could just send another message of the West’s current dependence on Russia?

Just musing.


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