That is not worrying, it is planning ( as you tangentially mention )

One option for Putin is to withdraw all his forces to the Donbas, saying that all other offensives were merely feints or designed to attrit the Ukrainian army. He can sell this to a disinterested/ ill-informed domestic audience as job done. We have two new provinces and Ukraine is no longer a threat. He will then hope that by going on the defensive he can - a. Preserve his forces, b. Hope that the strength of support for Ukraine from the West wanes and c. Portray Russia as the innocent party trying to defend itself against foreign aggression. He probably already knows that if he continues with his present strategy he’s likely to lose everything

That would require a rational assessment of the Russian Army capabilities and the facts on the ground. I have seen no evidence of that to date. This is the inevitable result of dictators surrounding themselves with yes men. Putin is getting the briefings he wants not the ones he needs……

Good, you get the point.

We had numerous posts on OpSec a few weeks ago regarding careless Russian mobiles bringing disaster upon themselves. The current Ukrainian offensive has been quite a surprise to many in the West as well as the Russians, one reason for this being the restrictions on journalists and warnings to the populace of the dangers to liberation posed by loose talk -- or these days social media and similar speculation.

It's all too easy to spout about free speech and the public's need to know when other people's lives are at risk. Just as the card indexes with every scrap of trivial German information were built in Bletchley Park, the Ukrainians put together every item of info to smite the enemy -- and take steps to ensure the Russians can't do the same. One can only repeat: Slava Ukraine!

Withdraw what?

The BTGs in Kharkiv have abandoned their equipment to escape being overrun, the 25 BTGs in Kherson are trapped and would have to do the same.

They’ve lost 50K KIA which means around another 10-150K WIA/MIA and the Russian land forces started out with about 350K including reservists to defend the entire country.

In summary even in the concentrate their forces they are short of men, and they now don’t have the equipment to supply them.

so, if they do pull back - what to they do as the Ukrainians keep coming?

Stopping a retreat and equipping, reorganising, get your logistics sorted out and supplies reestablished takes time - and father winter is coming with the snows in 8 weeks or so.

In preparation to pull back over the Dnipro river?

Worth noting that there is no military utility in such attacks; it's purely for terror and retaliation against civilians. (Which, apart from being a war crime, is a moronic waste of scarce resources.)…..

“Being defeated on the eastern front in recent days russia commits another act of terrorism and hits critical infrastructure of Ukraine, damaging one of the biggest thermal power stations in Kharkiv– TEC-5. As a result multiple big cities are cut from power”

They seem to be desperate.

And they would still be facing an enemy better equipped, better trained, better supported and far more motivated.

If true it would be interesting to see which direction they are pulling out.....east towards the Donbas, or south-west towards Crimea?
If they are heading towards Crimea, it could open up a split of the RU forces along the north coast of the Sea of Azov and split the RUF. Kerch crossing could then be in range from the coastal area to the west of Berdyansk.

“This is how it starts, they are now low on supplies and unable to defend their positions. Without fuel and ammo the Russian defenses might also be close to collapsing west of Dnipro.”….

Excellent assessment…

A little map of the situation in Northern Luhansk after the rout of the russian invaders from Kharkiv Oblast.….

Twitter is full of unconfirmed reports that the Russian commanders of the troops trapped in Kherson are negotiating to surrender.

If ever Vlad was to go off the deep end and escalate, now is the time he’d do it.

Yes I think we are in approaching the most dangerous moment of this conflict. A widespread collapse of Russian forces and an uncontrolled retreat is now possible across a large segment of the front lines.

Russian open source strategic documents talk about using tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” response to battlefield reversals.

This how WWW 3 starts.

I hope that the Ukrainian forces can go on north-east from Kupyansk to capture Troitske, as that would cut the last remaining rail link to the whole of the Luhansk region from the northern border with Russia. There's not that many rail links left to get supplies into the Donbas after that. it would also cut the only major road into occupied Ukraine from the north.

​​​​​​There has been very little mention of the still very large Russian Air Force attempting to help stem the Ukrainian advances. Have you heard any assessments of why?

I agree, have seen the escalate/deescalate language, it makes me nervous.

Profess to knowing nothing about how Russia employs its nuclear weapons but it seems Vlad has had yes men working for him in the conventional force structure. I truly hope that’s not the case in Russia’s nuclear force.