PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Military Aviation (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation-57/)
-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Recc 7th Sep 2022 09:00


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11292258)
I wonder if they've come via, or were intended for, Syrian or Yemeni elements?

I suspect that you are correct. Western nations (UK and US in particular) have quite large stocks of Iranian made weapons.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-A...nian-missiles/

I'm pleased to see that they are being put to good use.

Pali 7th Sep 2022 09:58

Most of the people are focusing on the offensive in Cherson oblast now but there is another unexpected direction of attack which may prove even more important. Ukrainians are pushing towards Kupyansk which means Izyum and the whole garrison on the west bank of Siverski Donec may be cut off and annihilated. Per reports from Russian side they are in deep trouble and once the line of defence is broken there is an empty space behind. Russian army seems to be overstretched and units are undermanned. Somebody is pocketing money for non-existing soldiers.

One example here:


Or here:


rattman 7th Sep 2022 10:02


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11292258)
I wonder if they've come via, or were intended for, Syrian or Yemeni elements?

Pakistan seems to be a discussed option, pakistan is acting as a 3rd party, buying them and selling them on. Even prior to the invaison pakistan was a big buying of ukrainian grain. Something like 40% came from Ukraine

AndySmith 7th Sep 2022 10:19

Warning, aviation content. What could appear to be an RF SU-25 being shot down - possibly by a UAF aircraft?


Recc 7th Sep 2022 10:32


Originally Posted by AndySmith (Post 11292344)
Warning, aviation content. What could appear to be an RF SU-25 being shot down - possibly by a UAF aircraft?

Well spotted! I'd assumed a SAM, but if you pause at 5s you can see a (the?) missile accelerating right to left. Certainly looks from the speed and direction that it was fired by the trailing aircraft.

peter we 7th Sep 2022 10:50


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11292215)
Wait, what, on the post #12 on that thread it is claimed that Ukraine is currently manufacturing their own equivalent of Excalibur projectile for the M777.
Anyone able to find any proofs of that?

Poland and Ukraine jointly developed an laser guided equivalent about a decade ago. Doesn't seem to have gone into production in Poland as the manufacturer involved doesn't list it on its Web site. It was tested and worked well, Poland also build a nato standard laser designator, also works with the ATGM's the country's developed together.

Beamr 7th Sep 2022 10:57


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11292361)
Poland and Ukraine jointly developed an laser guided equivalent about a decade ago. Doesn't seem to have gone into production as the manufacturer involved doesn't list it on its Web site. It was tested and worked well, Poland also build a nato standard laser designator, also works with the ATGM's the country's developed together.

That's about the same what SU did in the 80's (see Krasnopol), however my question is related to GPS guided artillery munition, but apparently that was a hoax or a misunderstanding by the tweeter as I for one can't find any info regarding Ukrainian made GPS guided arty goods.

ORAC 7th Sep 2022 12:11

Russian units under strength and filled with press-ganged conscripts with minimal training who don’t know how to use their equipment…

How long before a general collapse takes place?

Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn't know how to use available heavy weapons; Ukrainians entered swiftly on armour rendering Rus. artillery ineffective; beat the f*ck out of the garrison.

Wagner GREY ZONE - "do not expect good news today"

Recaps Ukrainian advance in Balakleya, mentions several downed Russian aircraft including an Su-25 and two helicopters.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....08967326c.jpeg

ORAC 7th Sep 2022 12:52

Surround, bypass and press on!!

p.s. Note all these reports are from Russian forces on Telegraph channels, UKR forces are maintaining OPSEC discipline…

Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya not important to be taken at all costs; blames Ministry of Defence for hiding the bad news.

peter we 7th Sep 2022 13:32


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11292367)
That's about the same what SU did in the 80's (see Krasnopol), however my question is related to GPS guided artillery munition, but apparently that was a hoax or a misunderstanding by the tweeter as I for one can't find any info regarding Ukrainian made GPS guided arty goods.

The Soviet and Ukraine shells were analog.the polish guidance system is digital, the body of the shell and mechanical parts were Ukrainian. Its not GPS but laser guidance is better if you have a drone, human.to hit moving targets.
Find info on this is difficult, but these shells were a fraction the price of US laser guided shells and <10% of Excalibur.
Too expensive for Ukraine at the time, however.

ORAC 7th Sep 2022 14:16

Strikes in Hola Prystan one hour ago.

P.S:Hola Prystan is another location which Russians try to use as port for barges and ferries to supply Kherson frontline

ORAC 7th Sep 2022 14:56

Troops in Kharkiv Oblast abandoning their posts, including all their weapons and fleeing. Interesting to see they were issued with armour proof vests - filled with foam rubber….


ORAC 7th Sep 2022 15:16

Depends how much you trust the figures.

Some commanders will be reporting their paper soldiers as dead to collect the death benefits.

Some commanders won’t be reporting KIA because they want to keep drawing their pay as long as possible.

The ministry will have increased the number of reported in order to claim and embezzle as much as possible - whilst minimising payouts to families by claiming they are MIA/deserters….

The document leaked from RUS MinFin says that by AUG 28, 361.4B RUB has been paid to families of KIA soldiers, 7.4M per one. Dividing would give 48838 confirmed dead. This does not include those MIA, killed separatists and WIA…..

And they say they need another 271 billion before the end of the year and three times as much for 2023.…


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....909ada9925.png


Beamr 7th Sep 2022 15:58

Russian troops are overwhelmed by the Ukrainians using combined arms attack and call it "NATO style".

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c2c7e8cc0a.gif






Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces are using effective NATO style combined arms attacks on their positions and they are totally overwhelmed in some areas.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...74654310277120

peter we 7th Sep 2022 16:04


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11292467)
The Soviet and Ukraine shells were analog.the polish guidance system is digital, the body of the shell and mechanical parts were Ukrainian. Its not GPS but laser guidance is better if you have a drone, human.to hit moving targets.
Find info on this is difficult, but these shells were a fraction the price of US laser guided shells and <10% of Excalibur.
Too expensive for Ukraine at the time, however.

Different Polish company so probably not the same shell

https://mspo.defence24.pl/na-ladzie/...sko-w-kielcach


ORAC 7th Sep 2022 16:13

The advance continues. The attacks on Izyum itself shows where they are headed - or at least intending to it of in a pocket and to cut all the GLOC for the Donetsk front northern flank.

Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.

Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.

ORAC 7th Sep 2022 16:28

The Ukrainians have achieved a tactical break-in and have opened a breach.

It appears Russia currently doesn't have either the ground maneuver unit reserves or artillery fires to respond locally and seal this breach in the Russian forward defenses.

It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian military has enough local mobile forces to make this into an operational scale breakthrough offensive that cuts the Russian ground lines of communications to Izyum.

The only rapidly available tool for the Russians appears to be airpower.

The Russians have to commit the VKS in a big way to slow this Ukrainian break-in down and helicopter lift infantry blocking forces in front of the Ukrainians to save their logistical position at Izyum.

People should expect to hear about Russian claims of successful air strikes & Ukrainian claims of VKS jets and helicopters shot down in the next 48 hours….

Beamr 7th Sep 2022 16:39

Intriguing tweet by Ukraine MoD.
wonder what are they up to now, taking down the Kerch bridge?


The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea. It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk. BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1567526011041988609

Video Mixdown 7th Sep 2022 17:03


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11292554)
Intriguing tweet by Ukraine MoD.
wonder what are they up to now, taking down the Kerch bridge?

Whatever it is, they must be confident that there's now nothing the Russians can do to prevent it.

jolihokistix 7th Sep 2022 17:13

Heat signatures dropping in Russ-occupied Ukraine? Meaning?
Quote: “Heat data from Ukraine suggests Russia could be running low on ammunition.”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/ataglance/2220/


All times are GMT. The time now is 00:33.


Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.