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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 14th Jun 2022 12:18

Wants against reality, a frank and educational read.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...pm_source=main

Tartiflette Fan 14th Jun 2022 13:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11245676)
Re artillery, I still cannot understand the reluctance of the west to give Ukraine long range MLRS weapons,, it would enable Ukraine to target Russian artillery from well outside Russias normal counter artillery range. A simple understanding, use these weapons at anytime without the wests agreement to strike Russian territory will cease any future hardware support or replenishments full stop.
In the meantime we need to seriously up our supply in both quantity of artillery weapons and munitions replenishment.

The MLRS supplied have a range up to 70 km and the M777 artillery pieces up to 40 km. This is ( I read ) beyond the range of Russian artillery, but obviously not their rockets.

Lonewolf_50 14th Jun 2022 14:37

Do you know what your enemy is shooting at you?
 
Aviation Content here: MANPADS proliferation continues to be a concern (and it has been for a while, going as far back in my memory as Stingers in Afghanistan in the 80's)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...les-increasing

Over the past decade, there has been a significant increase in the illicit trade of advanced Chinese-designed shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, also known as man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, according to a new report from the independent monitoring group Small Arms Survey.
Worth a read.
For Nutty: nice piece in terms of perspective.

The entireactive U.S. Army has 330 artillery pieces (M777 and M109 self-propelled guns). Ukraine is asking for 1,500.
As to the later tidbits regarding the area around Karkhiv, and the Russian artillery shooting from inside Russian territory: ALCM is a possible answer to that.

Ukraine has hit a wall in Kharkiv—the closer it gets to the Russian border, the more exposed its forces are to artillery from inside Russian territory, where they sit safe and well-supplied.
The question is, does Ukraine have Russian vintage ALCM's on any of their aircraft? Since Russia has violated Ukraine's border left, right, and center, Ukraine hitting a military target (artillery position) within Russia that is firing into Ukraine is well within bounds.

ORAC 14th Jun 2022 17:44

US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.

The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..

That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.

A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html

Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.

Lonewolf_50 14th Jun 2022 18:34


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11246088)
US army has 10 active divisions, each with a Brigade of 3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
The National Guard has a further 8 Brigades, making around another 800 pieces for a grand total of about 1800 pieces including about 500 MLRS..
That is, of course, only those currently assigned, not those held in reserve. The army having, over the years, bought over 990 MLRS.
A lot are mothballed, but a lot are also being refurbished and updated. e.g.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/m270.html
Not saying they can afford to give a lot away - but they have more than you suggest.

I suggest that you take it up with the author. I won't comment on your assumption of all divisions having a full complement of equipment. I don't share that assumption.
Your numbers are close enough if all ten divisions were heavy divisions. (Mechanized infantry or armor).
But they are not.
Three of them are light divisions. (Granted, the 101st is loaded with helicopters).
101st Air Assault (Fort Campbell) and 82d Airborne (Fort Bragg) divisions are not heavy divisions, nor is the 10th Mountain Division. (Fort Drum)
I'll suggest that your overestimation is based on assuming that their complement of heavy artillery / MLRS matches that of the seven heavy divisions. (Cav/Armor/Mech Infantry). It does not.

(The last time I saw the 82d's ToE was a long time ago, but they didn't have a Heavy Division's complement of heavy artillery - while they may have had an upgrade since then, IIRC they used the 105mm howitzer which is air droppable).

101st's Divarty looks like this:
  • 1st Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • 2d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • 3d Battalion, 320th Field Artillery (18 × M102 105mm towed howitzer)
  • Battery C, 5th Battalion, 8th Field Artillery (attached 18th Field Artillery Brigade M198 155mm towed howitzer unit)

10th Mountain Division's Divarty looks like this:
  • Headquarters & Headquarters Battery
    • 1st Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
    • 2nd Battalion, 7th Field Artillery (18 × M101 105 mm towed howitzer)
    • Battery E, 7th Field Artillery (8 × M198 155 mm towed howitzer)
With the above in mind, let's multiply your numbers by .7 by assuming that the 7 heavy divisions are equipped as you surmise:

3 artillery battalions each equipped with around 24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & 9 MLRS or HIMARS. Thats 720 howitzers and 270 MLRS, for a total of around 1000 pieces.
That's about: 504 155mm howitzers and about 189 MLRS. (plus or minus a bit).
So yeah, he's still off by a bit.

NutLoose 14th Jun 2022 21:34


  1. Russia says it will give Ukrainian fighters holed up in a chemical plant in the encircled city of Severodonetsk a chance to surrender
  2. A humanitarian corridor to evacuate some of the hundreds of civilians trapped with them will be opened on Wednesday

BBC News…


Yeah, tell that to the surrendered fighters from Mariupol, some of who are sitting with death sentences hanging over their heads, and the others that possibly no one actually knows where they are.

The reason Russia left a bridge standing was I believe in the hope that they would all withdraw over it. That was never going to happen so I doubt the above will either, it will become another Mariupol tying down Russian forces, one does wonder what heavy equipment Ukraine now has trapped, though the dropped bridge span looks like a temporary one could be thrown across it.

Lonewolf_50 14th Jun 2022 23:45


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11246176)
The reason Russia left a bridge standing was I believe in the hope that they would all withdraw over it.

Isn't that in Sun Tzu's book?

36. When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."

ORAC 15th Jun 2022 06:43

…”In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine is simply opting not to use the unfamiliar Western systems. For example, despite receiving hundreds of Switchblade drones, some units prefer to use commercial drones rigged with explosives that are more user-friendly.”….

NutLoose 15th Jun 2022 12:14

When a Trench becomes a ditch..


Lonewolf_50 15th Jun 2022 12:54


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11246286)
…”In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine is simply opting not to use the unfamiliar Western systems. For example, despite receiving hundreds of Switchblade drones, some units prefer to use commercial drones rigged with explosives that are more user-friendly.”….

That's the thing about weapons: some training required.
I'll offer the observation that it is a good idea not to use a weapon that one has not trained with.
Could end in tears, otherwise.

Usertim 15th Jun 2022 14:22

How low is too low?

tdracer 15th Jun 2022 18:02

This is pretty damning if true:
SSU: Russia has come up with a new scheme to supply "cannon fodder" to the front (yahoo.com)


Russia's recruiting companies are looking for masses "volunteers" for the military, and requiring neither physical training nor military training.
The invaders are being offered good salaries

I suppose you can offer really good pay when most don't survive long enough to collect :rolleyes:

sycamore 15th Jun 2022 18:20

USERTIM,we would normally fly below treetop level; grass and weeds don`t do any damage,and the birds can sleep safely.....

Lonewolf_50 15th Jun 2022 18:30


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11246633)
This is pretty damning if true:
SSU: Russia has come up with a new scheme to supply "cannon fodder" to the front (yahoo.com)
I suppose you can offer really good pay when most don't survive long enough to collect :rolleyes:

There's forty shillings rubles on the drum ...
Spoiler
 


NutLoose 15th Jun 2022 20:55

Fascinating read on the infrastructure in place to source and delivery weaponary to Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61816337

NutLoose 15th Jun 2022 21:16

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3aae108f4.jpeg


ORAC 16th Jun 2022 06:42

Things starting to turn in Russia. These are the hard core of those supporting the war…

Sensible people need to get used (if someone hasn’t yet since May 2014) to a fact that the Russian state definitely cannot win this war BECAUSE IT DOESN’T WANT IT. Russian state does not want a red (ESPECIALLY red) Victory banner over Bankovaya. Russian state does not want Kyiv back in Russia. It does not want to crush the reptile that is Ukrainian nationalism.

Russian state does not want Russian victory, it wants an agreement. After the agreement there will be chance to live somewhere that is not Russia, to heal up in old age somewhere like Germany, Israel or Switzerland. To see how children with foreign passports walk around London and Paris. To realise the unspoken: “Well, okay, we were born and raised in this rubbish dump that is Russia/USSR, but the children, the children should go to the civilisation, should be raised and learned like the white people”.

This is how they are thinking. This is exactly and the only way they are thinking. Thus their lack of desire to win the war is completely understandable. And the long-term sabotage is totally logical.”…

henra 16th Jun 2022 10:18


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11246871)
This is how they are thinking. This is exactly and the only way they are thinking. Thus their lack of desire to win the war is completely understandable. And the long-term sabotage is totally logical.”…

Probably their way of coping with being Butt- hurt about the real- life performance of the once dreaded Russian Armed Forces. Before the 'Special Operation' (You can lose a war but not a special operation - might be one of the reasons for the naming) many in Russia probably still phantasized about being capable of defeating the whole west militarily just to find out that they are massively struggling at invading a Country they would have considered as having them for Breakfast from a pure Military strength perspective alone.

I think they heavily underestimated: Invading <> Defending. Their big success in WWII was in defending their Country. The German Troops had to deal with the challenge of long range logistics in enemy territory while they were defending home turf like now the Ukrainians are doing. They wrongly extrapolated that invading would work the same way. Well, it doesn't. Totally different league. Not only from a motivation perspective. Also very much from a practical perspective.

NutLoose 16th Jun 2022 10:47

Crikey,

US estimates that Russia has lost up to 20-30% of its armoured forces




https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....29b844289.jpeg

Beamr 16th Jun 2022 11:19

Meanwhile in Russia the Izvestija (KRemlin supporter) is shouting out that the Ukrainian Air Force has been defeated (didnt they say that already in March) and that it will no longer pose a threat to the "allied forces" (whatever that alliance is).
Here's a typical line which is BS that smells to high heavens:

Originally Posted by izvestija.ru
“The Ukrainian air forces did not show themselves in any way during the special military operation , military expert Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia. "No heroic deeds were seen behind the air forces of Ukraine,” he said. - In air battles, the Russian Aerospace Forces did not lose a single aircraft. Our pilots beat Ukrainians during a special military operation. Two of our pilots received the title of Hero of Russia for air battles - this says a lot."
https://iz.ru/1350157/bogdan-stepovo...ili-pvo-rossii

Also, what is staggering are the numbers the Russians are showing. According to the Izvestija source the Defence Ministry stated that "In total, 203 aircraft, 131 helicopters, 1,211 unmanned aerial vehicles, 339 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,558 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 524 multiple rocket launchers, 1,958 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 3,623 special military units have been destroyed since the beginning.

One could argue that this is phenomenal performance by the RF armed forces as in February Ukraine had only 206 fixed wing aircrafts including all the transport and trainer aircrafts plus 146 helicopters in the inventory. I have no idea how these figures would be even remotely possible considering that Russia has not conquered Ukraine and subjected it.


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