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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 15th Apr 2022 08:48

They are preparing the audience for war against the west, just in case this situation escalates.
Firstly: in Russia no one says nothing that isn't approved by Kremlin, especially the media.
Secondly: The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

We must remember that the official Russian storyline has been that this is a peace keeping operation to protect DPR/LPR. No one has told the average russians that its a war out there and the enemy is not some biker gang but a real and capable 21st century army with hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers and incredible will to fight.

Now that they are getting hits more than they can bear, they need someone to blame: good Russians are out there to protect civilians and feeding children but the evil and bloodthirsty NATO wants to wipe the noble Russians off the face of the earth.

It's all propaganda, and intelligence services seem to be a bit worried about it as well: the CIA just warned that Putin might try to use nukes as he needs a win and he can't take a loss personally (see link underneath). We in the west may reason all we like that the Russians don't stand a chance against 20x financially more powerful military etc, but apparently Putin has crossed the line beyond that rationality. Just like Hitler who eventually stated that Germany does not deserve to survive if it loses the war so the war may as well be total war

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nuclear-weapons-burns-cia/31804539.html

I do wish I am wrong on this however it all seems to be going to a bad direction.

Doors Off 15th Apr 2022 09:08

Vladolf is cornered and desperate. Hopefully someone in Russia retires him very quickly.

Mariner9 15th Apr 2022 09:20


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11215684)
The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

Abandoning all pretence that it wasn't an attack then?

Beamr 15th Apr 2022 09:27


Originally Posted by Mariner9 (Post 11215701)
Abandoning all pretence that it wasn't an attack then?

at 1:01 on the above video it is said it was an attack. The panelist says what happened to Moskva is absolutely a reason for war.
Also, at 1:25 the presenter says that the special military operation in Ukraine has turned into a war. Unless they have already fallen out of a window by accident, this is a message from Kremlin. We need to remember that there are already 15000 russians jailed for "spreading lies regarding the Russian army". These jojos wouldn't dare to say these things without blessing from the very top.

ramble on 15th Apr 2022 09:32


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11215684)
They are preparing the audience for war against the west, just in case this situation escalates.
Firstly: in Russia no one says nothing that isn't approved by Kremlin, especially the media.
Secondly: The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

We must remember that the official Russian storyline has been that this is a peace keeping operation to protect DPR/LPR. No one has told the average russians that its a war out there and the enemy is not some biker gang but a real and capable 21st century army with hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers and incredible will to fight.

Now that they are getting hits more than they can bear, they need someone to blame: good Russians are out there to protect civilians and feeding children but the evil and bloodthirsty NATO wants to wipe the noble Russians off the face of the earth.

It's all propaganda, and intelligence services seem to be a bit worried about it as well: the CIA just warned that Putin might try to use nukes as he needs a win and he can't take a loss personally (see link underneath). We in the west may reason all we like that the Russians don't stand a chance against 20x financially more powerful military etc, but apparently Putin has crossed the line beyond that rationality. Just like Hitler who eventually stated that Germany does not deserve to survive if it loses the war so the war may well be total war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/u...r-weapons.html

I do wish I am wrong on this however it all seems to be going to a bad direction.


What’s the point of linking a paywalled article?

Beamr 15th Apr 2022 09:36


Originally Posted by ramble on (Post 11215707)
What’s the point of linking a paywalled article?

my apologies, this should work. A bit shorter version but carries the main points: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nucle.../31804539.html

Tartiflette Fan 15th Apr 2022 09:55


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11215670)

I can never understand the Russian, we can wage a war in your country, but their shock horror when the opposition actually fights back and returns that favour.
..

Well, for whatever reason, the Ukranians seem to be "co-operating " with this idea as they have not claimed any attacks into Russia ( bar two missiles early on ). I have no idea if this is lack of weaponry, better targets in Ukraine or a political strategy.

Clop_Clop 15th Apr 2022 09:58

|t's off the charts in that show, what ever it is... there was a woman earlier making a strong case for stronger repression inside Russia and the guy in black referring to Ukranians and the west as satan and nazis... Guess the show is where they make entertainment of it and spreading the narrative...



Recc 15th Apr 2022 10:02


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11215684)
They are preparing the audience for war against the west, just in case this situation escalates.
Firstly: in Russia no one says nothing that isn't approved by Kremlin, especially the media.
Secondly: The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

I do wish I am wrong on this however it all seems to be going to a bad direction.

That is one interpretation, but I think that it is more likely that a prolonged and costly war against Ukraine would be seen as a deeply embarrassing failure for Russia's armed forced. If it is portrayed as a war against NATO, then the lack of progress and heavy losses are much more easily explained and less humiliating. I doubt that Russia actually wants direct conflict with NATO.

Beamr 15th Apr 2022 10:20


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11215730)
. I doubt that Russia actually wants direct conflict with NATO.

I would like to think that what Russia wants is very different from what Putin wants. However, we were all very doubtful of Russia really unleashing a full scale war in Ukraine just seven weeks ago.

I'd love to be wrong on this.

Imagegear 15th Apr 2022 10:52

An interesting turn of events today...


Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has reportedly suffered a massive heart attack amid the war with Ukraine and foul play is being suspected.


Apparently hooked up to machines for life support

Sergei Shoigu,

IG

Recc 15th Apr 2022 10:53


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11215741)
I would like to think that what Russia wants is very different from what Putin wants. However, we were all very doubtful of Russia really unleashing a full scale war in Ukraine just seven weeks ago.

It is a good point to make, but again I wouldn't be too pessimistic. I was convinced in late 2021/ early 2022 that there would be a large scale war in Ukraine after reading well-reasoned articles from knowledgeable commentators who made the point convincingly that the only route to a Russian strategic victory in Ukraine would be a forcible change of government through the occupation of the entire country. All the other scenarios would not have delivered what Putin needed. The point I'm making is that the decisions we saw were entirely rational (and predictable) based on Putin's view of Russian strategic interest and weren't the actions of a deranged (or delusional) mind. Clearly in hindsight the decision to invade was made on overly optimistic assessment's of Russian capability, but (to be fair) their military performance has been much more surprising than the fact that the invasion happened. I don't think that there is any evidence yet that Putin is acting in a deliberately self-destructive manner although, of course, it would be foolish to deny that he might.

Beamr 15th Apr 2022 11:15


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11215757)
the only route to a Russian strategic victory in Ukraine would be a forcible change of government through the occupation of the entire country. All the other scenarios would not have delivered what Putin needed. t.

I agree on this and apparently all the western intelligence services too (see the statement by William Burns, CIA). The million lives question is how do we help Ukraine to avoid this result or is Kremlin already thinking that the west is a part in the war making everyone a legit target in Putins twisted mind.
Putin changed the rules, he is unpredictable and I hope the stanislavpetrovs of the world are in place when they are needed the most.

NutLoose 15th Apr 2022 11:21


Originally Posted by Mariner9 (Post 11215701)
Abandoning all pretence that it wasn't an attack then?

The fact the rest of the fleet backed way way off must hint at the fact it was hit.


A senior U.S. Defense official said earlier on Thursday that following the explosion and significant fire on the Moskva, about six warships in the northern Black Sea moved south.

“At this point, we hold them no closer than about 80 nautical miles from the coast,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. “But ships move and I can’t predict where there’ll be an hour from now.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/russ...e-updates.html

Tartiflette Fan 15th Apr 2022 12:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11215768)
The fact the rest of the fleet backed way way off must hint at the fact it was hit.
l

What I don't understand is that the Neptun has a range of 300 km, yet they have supposedly only retreated to 140 km ( although 300 km would put them back in harbour in Sevastopol )

ShyTorque 15th Apr 2022 12:24

I noticed that the logo on the BBC's "App" icon on my iphone changed to a red square a few days ago.

Just showing their true allegiances?

NutLoose 15th Apr 2022 12:26

TF,

But the report was one point in time, ships do move, does it not also put them out of range of the UAV's? It would also give them more time to react to a threat.

Ninthace 15th Apr 2022 12:36


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11215787)
What I don't understand is that the Neptun has a range of 300 km, yet they have supposedly only retreated to 140 km ( although 300 km would put them back in harbour in Sevastopol )

Isn't that more consistent with the range of Harpoon?

Tartiflette Fan 15th Apr 2022 12:54


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11215795)
TF,

, does it not also put them out of range of the UAV's? It would also give them more time to react to a threat.

I have no idea what area their sensors can cover; in any case, would the Russkis not be assuming that targetting data is being fed from NATO observation assets ?

Tartiflette Fan 15th Apr 2022 12:57


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11215801)
Isn't that more consistent with the range of Harpoon?

No idea. I consulted Wiki.


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