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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 11221161)
I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...
Not only Shoigu disappeared from the public space, but also other key security officials - Zolotov, Bortnikov and KostyukovI am reposting this interesting article that appeared earlier today in Moscow Times.Moscow Times Not only Sergei Shoigu fell out of the public field, but almost all the main security officials. We came to this conclusion after studying the reports in the media and official sources about the activities of Viktor Zolotov, Igor Kostyukov, Valery Gerasimov, and Alexander Bortnikov. They all disappeared at about the same time. The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, disappeared on March 13, right after he went to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and accepted the icon from the hands of the Patriarch himself. Then Zolotov complained to the Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church that in the war with Ukraine "not everything is going as fast as we would like." Prior to that, on March 11, Zolotov presented awards to the Russian Guardsmen who distinguished themselves in hostilities. There were no more videos of him. The last photo with Zolotov hangs on the website of the Russian Guard in a publication dated March 22. It says that he held a working meeting in Moscow with the leadership of the department. At the same time, initially, the material appeared for some reason on the website of the Samara department of the Russian Guard. There were no videos or any comments from this event. At the same time, after March 13, the name of Zolotov was mentioned in the news of the state media only in connection with the sanctions of Japan and the United States. On March 17, information appeared that Zolotov allegedly fired his deputy Roman Gavrilov. According to some reports, Gavrilov was his close friend and was "person number 2" in the Russian Guard. media claimed that Gavrilov was detained on suspicion of embezzling funds from the National Guard, which were intended for fighters fighting in Ukraine. The name of the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov also ceased to appear in the media. On March 12, he had a conversation with a colleague from Turkey, and on March 4 he discussed the situation in Ukraine with the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burcar. There are no more messages, as well as photos or videos, with Gerasimov. On March 24, the Pentagon announced that Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were refusing to speak to them on the phone. The last time they spoke was February 18. There is no information about the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Igor Kostyukov. Recently, only the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov wrote about him. According to his sources, Kostyukov's health has "drastically deteriorated" - the military man is experiencing a "burning sensation in the heart." Alexander Bortnikov appeared only at meetings of the Security Council led by Putin on March 24 and 11. At the same time, the director of the FSB was dressed in the same clothes (even the color of the tie was the same - red), behind him the same background, and the frame itself was exactly the same angle. On both broadcasts, Bortnikov appears only for a few seconds and does not utter a word. There is no more news about him. Earlier, the media wrote that the head of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, had ceased to appear in public space since March 11. Sources close to the minister said he was "unwell and has heart problems." After Shoigu was shown on video on March 24, he allegedly took part in a meeting of the Security Council with Putin. However, we found that the footage with the minister is very similar to the broadcast from a similar meeting on March 11th. The minister's tie has moved in the same direction, the background has not changed either. Mediazona came to the same conclusion. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11221151)
Things are escalating in Moldova/Transnistria after yesterdays “attacks”. Two more reported today.
Just not sure what they and Russia can do. They aren’t up to attacking Ukraine in the rear without Moldova doing the same to them. Meanwhile Russian forces aren’t in a position to break through past Mykolaiv, let alone past Odessa - and I don’t think they’d risk an amphibious landing. They wouldn’t be mad enough to try another airborne assault would they? What would be the rationale for an otherwise rational defense of Ukraine by the URA to cause any additional excuse that would support a Russian narrative to march across the south of Ukraine? There is zero tactical or strategic value in that, and the area is famous for it's adherence to Stalinist Soviet practices, of which, truth-telling is noticeably absent. |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 11221161)
I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...
Russia sets their eyes on MoldovaMy warnings from the disinformation and threats coming from MoscowOver the past several weeks there has been a significant uptick of heated rhetoric and disinformation directed at Moldova. It has gotten worse over the past two weeks and became even more worrying over this weekend. Since last year I have been warning about Moldova being a target. After Putin’s puppet Dodon lost election in 2020, Russia began an aggressive disinformation campaign towards Moldova and the Sandu government. Last fall, Russia weaponized energy putting pressure on Moldova along with other European countries, in particular Germany. Since Russia launched their brutal war crimes campaign on Ukraine the threat towards Moldova has increased. At the center of this is Russian occupied Transnistria (the West recognizes Transnistria as belonging to Moldova) which hosts Russian troops and could be used as a launchpad for Russia’s operations against Odesa and southern Ukraine.Russia uses the presence of their troops in Transnistria to put pressure on the Moldova and run destabilizing operations against Moldova. The situation is very similar to Russia’s occupation of Donbas and it was no surprise that shortly after Putin signed his illegal decree in February to recognize Donbas as Russian territory the Kremlin puppets in Transnistria requested the same recognition. Over the past few weeks the attacks on the Moldovan government in Russian media and the propaganda by Russian propagandists has been escalating. It feels very similar to the months leading up to the launch of Putin’s brutal campaign in Ukraine. This took an alarming turn over the weekend when Russian media reported that Russia may soon the independence of Transnistria (Pridnestrovie) in the near future. Hours after Putin signed the decree recognizing Donbas there were reports that Russian tanks rolled into Donbas. A few days later Russia officially launched their war against Ukraine. The following are several alarming developments that were reported in Russian media over the weekend. Here comes Russia’s pretext for protecting Russian speakers which they have used for other invasions -On April 22, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the goal of the "second phase of the special operation" in Ukraine is to control the south of Ukraine, which will make it possible to gain access to Transnistria, "where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population." Russia calls President Sandu a “nazi” and announces that the recognition of Transnistria may come shortly to “uproot nazism.” Same pretext as Ukraine From Moscow Times- Russian edition The Russian authorities may recognize the independence of Pridnestrovie in the near future, said Viktor Vodolatsky, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs. According to him, Pridnestrovie actually considers itself a part of Russia and wants to repeat the fate of South Ossetia, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Earlier, the authorities of these regions announced their desire to join the Russian Federation. Vodolatsky said that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and “her Romanian curators” allegedly want to implement the Ukrainian scenario in Transnistria and unleash a war. The deputy called Sanda herself a Nazi, since St. George ribbons were recently banned in the country, and now Russia needs to “uproot Nazism” in Moldova. Pridnestrovians are our citizens. They understand that only together with Russia they themselves, their children and grandchildren can continue to live in safety and peace. All this nationalism, Nazism, which has taken root next to us, should simply be destroyed, uprooted and forgotten about for many years. Viktor Vodolatsky added that the Pridnestrovians "are in isolation" and it is necessary to create a "corridor" to Russia. Earlier, the acting commander of the Central Military District, Rustam Minnekaev , announced that, as part of the “second phase” of hostilities in Ukraine, the Russian army should establish full control over southern Ukraine in order to secure access to Transnistria. There, according to him, there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population. “ Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, the whole of Europe, the whole world was against us. And now it’s the same, they never liked Russia ,” the officer said. This conspiracy I found particularly alarming and it took me a bit to trace back the disinformation that I was seeing on social media to its source. All day I was seeing Russian disinfo accounts spreading insanity of Romanian troops infiltrating Moldova and preparing to disguise themselves in Moldovan military uniforms to start a war. I couldn’t understand where this troubling insanity was coming from and finally found the interview where this “insider information” was revealed. It is even worse than I thought. The person who revealed this information is terrorist Igor Girkin aka Igor Strelkov, a Russian intelligence officer, who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea and occupation operations in Donbas. The following is his interview printed in Russian media outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets Strelkov was put in his place about the "annexation of Moldova"According to Strelkov, in all headquarters, a significant part of the Moldovan officers were replaced by officers of the Romanian army (in all key positions), and in the commandant companies of military units that perform the functions of the military police, the personnel were completely replaced by Romanians. Also, according to him, on the territory of Moldova, warehouses of military uniforms and footwear, NATO army rations and other auxiliary military equipment are being hastily created and filled from outside. The weapon is not imported. Girkin's sources suggest that this is not necessary: when the Romanian army occupies Moldova, it will "come with everything of its own." Mobilization of Moldovans, in all likelihood, is also not planned. The statements of the former Minister of Defense of the DPR, specifically for MK, were commented by the director of the International Institute of Recent States, political scientist Alexei Martynov . “It is clear that these statements by Girkin are just a way to remind yourself of a loved one who was completely forgotten against the backdrop of a special operation in Ukraine,” the expert believes. “There is absolutely nothing behind them. We have been hearing these tales from Transnistria for 30 years. Although a Romanian plane flew past there for the last time, probably back in 1992 ... - Is the annexation of Moldova by Romania such an incredible scenario? - Why is it Romania? - They want to unite for a long time, that's a good reason. - To unite and send troops is a big difference. With all due respect to Romania, this is not Erdogan's Turkey, which, on the sly against the backdrop of this whole situation around Ukraine, goes and takes its own in Iraq. This is not India, which is now taking Punjab, and not China, which, perhaps, will also soon go to take away its own type of Taiwan ... - Sandu is a citizen of Romania. - So what? Half of the governments there have Romanian citizenship. 7 of the nine constitutional judges are Romanian citizens. 70-80% of MPs have Romanian passports. Why send Romanian troops into Moldova if it is already tightly integrated with Romania. Exactly as far as Romania needs it. - And what will happen if the Russian Federation recognizes Pridnestrovie? - To recognize Pridnestrovie is to automatically push Moldova into Romania. This formula is already 20 years old. In order for Moldova to become Romania, no Romanian troops need to be brought in. - But maybe Chisinau is afraid that it is the Russian Federation that can send troops? - What for? In Transnistria, there are already 1,800 Russian soldiers, plus military depots, which are still full. If there is an Ossetian scenario - an attack on peacekeepers, then the conversation is different. But I don't think this will happen. In order to send troops, you need some reason. There are no such grounds for Moldova. Nothing threatens Moldova, except for Ukrainian refugees, who have already smashed Chisinau. Romania is now run by an ethnic German who knows how to count money. And in principle, they do not need any annexations or unifications. Unification is a serious subsidence in incomes, living standards of the population. Everything they need from Moldova, they already have. Romania is, by the way, a NATO country. This is the same story as that the Poles will now take the Lviv region. If they don't, no one will let them. Sergey Markov, Putin’s close adviser and political scientist, continues spreading Romania disinformation via a Facebook post earlier today. “A military attack on Transnistria should begin in the near future. The Romanian army is already deployed in Moldova. Group expansion is underway. Soon there will be military provocations and then an attack. Romania with the support of NATO and with the participation of the Ukrainian army plans to seize Transnestria and carry out mass political repression against all supporters of Russia. This will put Russia in a very difficult position. After the military operation, Romania plans an enshlus in Moldova.” Markov’s statement came shortly after a series of explosions that targeted the Ministry of State Security building in Tiraspol, Transnistrian. From RIA Novosti “As a result of the incident, windows were broken in neighboring buildings. No casualties have been reported. Eyewitnesses report that next to the building are several objects that look like tubes from grenade launchers.” Of course Russian correspondent from Russian state media outlet Ria Novosti was on the scene to capture it all. Weeks before the start of Russia’s war they orchestrated a series of attacks to provide a pretext for their invasion due to the “dire situation” in Eastern Ukraine. Of course, it was Russian intelligence operatives who were committing all the attacks in Donbas. It feels like Russia is setting up a similar scenario with Transnistria. Another interesting thing happened hours after the initial explosions in Tiraspol. Reports began circulating on Russian social media of another series of explostion in the city of Parcani. These social media posts were reporting this 2nd attack citing Russian media reports. I checked all Russian media outlets and couldn’t find a thing on this incident. My final thoughts on this. Breaking news over the weekend reported Russia’s “new” objectives in Ukraine, which include gaining full control of southern and eastern Ukraine. It really isn’t new because this has been Russia’s military strategy for over a decade and what they attempted to achieve during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. One of the main reasons is to control the ports and have significant presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Gaining control over Moldova plays into this strategy and why we must pay close attention. |
Originally Posted by Rory57
(Post 11221141)
Plenty of options for destroying the function of the Kerch bridge without blocking sea passage.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6849b086e3.jpg |
Does the shipping lanes go either side of the island or just one? If you take out the bridge, is dropping a span better or dropping the support which will be stronger but a longer job to repair and in effect take out two spans.?
The Russians are training for when the bridge gets taken out. https://twitter.com/NullGeneration/status/1517933122544975874 .. |
These guys called earlier for heavy equipment. Hopefully the Gepards, T72's, 155mm howitzers and such get there very very soon. They wouldn't mind for some more CAS either.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11221134)
It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...
https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r Or https://defense-update.com/20110124_...on_subsys.html |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 11220993)
Sounds like a replay of Syria where the volunteer white helmet emergency crews were turned into "terrorists" by the Russian military and their supporting fan club.
This is the CNN report I watched https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world...tary-conflict/ |
From TASS https://tass.com/world/1443525: "Moscow hopes Transnistria won’t be drawn into Russia-Ukraine conflict — senior diplomat On April 26, the authorities declared heightened terror alert after a series of attacks committed on Transnistrian territory MOSCOW, April 26. /TASS/. Moscow hopes that Transnistria will not be drawn into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told reporters on Tuesday. "Let us wait for the end of the investigation. We would like to avoid this scenario," the senior Russian diplomat said, responding to a question about Moscow’s actions, if Transnistria was drawn into the conflict. "Let us wait for the results of the investigation and what is behind these developments. This is either terrorism or a provocation or hooliganism. The latter is the least possible explanation," he said. The authorities of the self-proclaimed Transnistrian republic declared heightened terror alert on Tuesday after a series of attacks committed on Transnistrian territory. On April 26, unidentified assailants blew up two antennae of the regional radio center in the community of Mayak of the Grigoriopol district in Transnistria. On Monday, the building of the Transnistrian State Security Ministry in Tiraspol was shelled from hand-held grenade launchers. No one was injured in both cases. In March, the Transnistrian security services received anonymous reports of mass bomb threats at schools, healthcare institutions, trading centers and other facilities." |
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs. I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives. |
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 11221255)
The troop losses are fatalities, not including injuries. You armor/cav guys would have a better idea of injury rates for crew/dismounts from these systems getting knocked out, but my estimates are around 1'5-2:1 for injuries to fatalities. Can't imagine Putin getting Xmas cards from the troops this year.
The MBT losses are bad, getting up towards 30%, the BMP/BTRs are shocking, that's between 9-10 guys in each full complement if they were manned. The fatality rate seems to have reduced, markedly, last look the losses were tracking within about 5% of the expected losses for the material loss, now, even reducing the fatality rates still gives a much higher expected fatalities to that presented. At the same as earlier reports before this second offensive, the expected losses would be over 48,400, even reducing those accounting for greater caution gives an expected fatality number of 33,500.... there looks like underreporting of fatalities, or a lot of empty vehicles getting hit. Those don't include injuries. They are getting mauled for what they have achieved, and can always go home and avoid the unpleasantness and 5-year out-of-date rat packs. I'm thinking that carousel ammo supply for autoloaders is bad for your health, and is going to make buyers of these designs start to think of alternatives. |
a death is [at worst] easily buried or cremated. And dead men tell no tales |
When will people learn how to keep their fool mouths shut?!
'US helped Ukraine in shooting down Russian plane carrying troops' (msn.com) The US reportedly provided Ukraine with intelligence used to shoot down a Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war. The US reportedly provided detailed information on when and where Russian bombs and missiles would strike. In addition, US intelligence on where and when Russian missiles and bombs were set to hit allowed Ukraine to move its aircrafts out of the strike path, current and former US officials told NBC News on Tuesday.The real-time information assisted Ukraine in pushing back on the Russian attack on a key airport near the capital of Kyiv. US officials said the intelligence sharing was massive and unprecedented for a country that is not a Nato partner. |
Re Germany sending Gepards to Ukraine, the Swiss are now apparently applying their veto to prevent Swiss made ammo from being transferred from Germany to Ukraine :ugh:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...craft-vehicles I just do not get it, after all the Ukrainians are just the middle men, Russia is the end destination of it hopefully, seriously though, how can you make a living selling arms and ammunition from a supposedly “neutral” country and then veto who they can sell, give or indeed fire it at. Who the hell would buy it under those terms. The cynic in me does wonder if Germany deliberately picked a weapons system they knew they couldn’t deliver to show they were going to deliver “ heavy weapons” fully aware that Switzerland would veto it, thus allowing Germany a get out clause and the ability to blame the Swiss whilst showing the West they were “complying” with the requests to do more. . |
Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 11221274)
The very long-term ratio of wounds to deaths in war [and indeed in "accidents"] is not far from 3: 1, and whereas a wound requires a lengthy and costly medical chain, a death is [at worst] easily buried or cremated. And dead men tell no tales.
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 11221274)
The very long-term ratio of wounds to deaths in war [and indeed in "accidents"] is not far from 3: 1, and whereas a wound requires a lengthy and costly medical chain, a death is [at worst] easily buried or cremated. And dead men tell no tales.
Ukraine is more likely to have a 3:1 or higher injury to fatality ratio, they are taking care of casualties, and are conducting a lot of small unit interdiction or fighting from prepared defenses. They are also conducting casevac of their injuries. Red forces exhibit very low morale, and presumably, that isolates the individual to personal survival needs rather than working for collective care. |
https://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-razboi_...at-rachete.htm
With photos, video. Russia (?) blows up the Zatoka road/rail bridge over the Dniester estuary between Odesa and Romania. A very dangerous move, on the face of it, just asking for trouble. |
how can you make a living selling arms and ammunition from a supposedly “neutral” country and then veto who they can sell, give or indeed fire it at. Who the hell would buy it under those terms. Disarmament Champion Cleaning Up Own Act : Stung by New Image as Gunrunner, Sweden Tightens Weapons-Export Laws - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) |
Russia to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday, hence they are weaponising it, odd as the map shows the flow goes through Romania to Bulgaria, so I do not know how that works,
. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe Russia will cut off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday in a major escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine. Moscow is making good on a threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. The European Union has rejected the move in principle but now payment deadlines are starting to fall due, governments across Europe need to decide whether to accept Putin’s terms or lose crucial supplies -- and face the prospect of energy rationing. European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next. |
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