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Is not the denial of gas to Poland and Bulgaria yet another huge mistake, if not the biggest?
In geopolitical and economic terms this will surely echo down the years, as customers [not only for gas] take note that the implied threats are, as circumstances change, actually carried out. Hitherto BU [BU = Before Ukraine] Western pragmatism's default was "they would not dare do it because it would hit them in the pocket". Wrong. That Rubicon has been crossed. This is like Putin leading the King to a trick, without being sure if the ace and all the trumps have gone. The scramble for energy security will now hot up to fever pitch. Nuclear, anybody? |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11221657)
I agree with you on the Article 51 point in general terms, but, you can't put peacekeepers in where there isn't a peace. So don't vote for a bad idea. Further that point, you can't put in a peace enforcement group in (see Former Yugoslavia, 1990's, NATO Operation Deliberate Force which was to enforce the Dayton Agreement) without a peace/peace agreement in place. No, inserting peace keepers into a hot war is a non starter.
You may also recall that more than once in the the Sinai UN peacekeepers either were withdrawn or were more or less ignored when various wars there were begun. The peacekeepers were only re-inserted when the shooting stopped and some kind of agreement was put together. Shooting hasn't stopped in Ukraine, has it? No, not as of this morning. With the above said, a direct intervention (similar to Korea 1950) is certainly an option should a coalition of interested parties assemble and insert such a force (under the general proviso of collective defense per Article 51) without necessarily asking the UNSC "by your leave". That probably won't have a UN 'good housekeeping seal of approval' attached to it regardless of how effective it is, or isn't. Since the UN has some well known limitations as a collective security organization maybe that 'good housekeeping seal' doesn't matter - but some people in positions of power think that it does, in terms of their never ending search for legitimacy. (A generally vain hope, given what a bunch of right bastards most politicians are). All of the above also applies to any attempt at instituting a no-fly zone. (<- lookie there, aviation content!) There is no legal right that Russia has to invade a sovereign nation, and doing so just because you happen to have nukes is no basis for global security. |
Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 11221673)
Is not the denial of gas to Poland and Bulgaria yet another huge mistake, if not the biggest?
In geopolitical and economic terms this will surely echo down the years, as customers [not only for gas] take note that the implied threats are, as circumstances change, actually carried out. Hitherto BU [BU = Before Ukraine] Western pragmatism's default was "they would not dare do it because it would hit them in the pocket". Wrong. That Rubicon has been crossed. This is like Putin leading the King to a trick, without being sure if the ace and all the trumps have gone. The scramble for energy security will now hot up to fever pitch. Nuclear, anybody? https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fce8f81cf1.png |
That's a yes, then?
I want to copyright "BU", I am sure it will come in handy over the years. |
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 11221648)
Maria apparently has never read the UN Charter. So to assist her in getting her facts straight here, straight from the UN Charter, Article 51...
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs” If Maria doesn't like it, perhaps she should take her toys 'n boys and stuff off back to the Peoples Utopia of Kopek. Her people signed the Charter. They can always remove themselves from the Charter which would make for a much more effective UNSC resolution to place UN Peace Keepers in Ukraine immediately. I would want a vote on that one. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2387961f6.jpeg https://www.reuters.com/world/iaea-s...yl-2022-04-26/ |
Dan Snow was on the telly this morning disparaging the request for Combat aircraft not as a dangerous escalation, but as big and shiney. He didn't seem to regard air power, other than drones as worth a candle.
FB |
Commenting on this statement, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that in order to disrupt military logistics, Russia could strike military targets on the territory of a number of NATO countries that supply arms to the Kiev regime. "Do we have the right understanding here? After all, it directly leads to deaths and bloodshed on Ukrainian territory. As far as I understand, Britain is one of those countries," Zakharova clarified in her Telegram channel. |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 11221723)
I think even George Orwell, were he still alive, would have been gobsmacked at some of the stuff that's been coming from the Zakharovas and Lavrovs of this world over the last couple of months.
This smacks of desperation and scrambled thinking. That is truly frightening: I don't mind if they spout sh1t and nonsense to the world, but I do mind if they are losing the plot as well as the war. Fortunately Ukraine is not at the top of the news here, or bog rolls, bottled water, pasta and paracetamol would be flying off the shelves again. |
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
(Post 11221633)
German press is saying that BK Scholz is trying to have his cake and eat it in regard to armour to Ukraine. The current proposal before the Bundestag links the supply of armour ( very urgent ) with the proposal to increase Bundeswehr spending by E 100 Mrd ( not very urgent ) , presumably in the hope that he can look like a good guy without actually doing anything (parliamentary log-jam ). The CDU parliamentary leadership has called out this political manoeuvring, saying they will not support this (their votes are needed to pass the motion ) and the two matters need to be split to allow urgent supply to Ukraine.
There also seems possible political deviousness afoot as regards the Gepard AA tanks. The German offer includes no ammo and the Ukrainians say that that renders the Gepard useless for them: one wonders if this is Scholz and his lukewarm defence-minister, Lambrecht, playing silly buggers (see next para ) I don't know how special this ammo is, but it has been reported that Switzerland will not allow supplies already delivered to Germany to be re-exported to Ukraine |
Yes problem sorted, Brazil will supply 300,000 rounds for the Gerard’s, Germany only had 23,000 and Switzerland wouldn’t supply anymore.
I would imagine the Gepards will munch through that lot quickly. That’s only 6000 per vehicle. Romania also has Gepards and apparently produces ammo for them. The Gepard is armed with two 35mm Oerlikon KDA autocannon, making it one of the most powerful self-propelled anti-aircraft guns in existence. Each gun fires at 550 rpm and is supplied with 320 HE rounds plus 20 AP rounds for use against ground targets. The effective AA range is 3.5 km with standard rounds and up to 4.5 km with FAPDS rounds. In a normal engagement 20 to 40 rounds are fired at a single target. Each gun has a firing rate of 550 rounds/min, which gives a continuous fire time of 37 seconds before running out of ammo (with 680 rounds for both guns). |
He knows he’s losing big time, same with Laugharov, it all smacks of desperation. The only country interfering in Ukraine is Russia.
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On cost-effectiveness, a single F-16A is worth about 350 Stingers. Can't do much with one F-16, so bring that up to say 24, if you get drivers, and that is a lot of stingers. And I like the F-16. Flying around Tyndall when they did the first F-16 drone shoots was depressing, it was bad enough watching F-4s get used as drones.
The more interesting issue is that Ukraine has lost a fair number of aircraft, not that many less than the invaders. They have suppressed air activity, but so has the limited number of S-300s and the more prevalent MANPADS. The Ukraine FIR is not a healthy place to be, well at least for Ka-52 and SU-34 drivers. F-16 or similar aircraft offer an opportunity to take some interdiction into Russia's supply chain, however, as incompetent as F-Troop has been so far, they have enough stuff to toss at strike packages to make that expensive. Some merit for ALCM, and ARM, when well within their own turf, but any flight that they go on will be effectively wild weasel no matter what it was fragged as. Have both, nothing wrong with system redundancy, but I would be expecting more effect from rat cunning asymmetric postures, using cruise missiles, MANPADS at every opportunity, and gallons of ATWs, not even only smart ones. With respect to the SBS position on the allied bombing, it seemed to be myopic and to have a bias towards a political statement rather than a balance of factors. The fact that accuracy was low on daylight and night bombing did not account for the amount of effort that was required by the other side to defend against the attacks. That strained resources, and put equipment into areas away from where they could have otherwise been used. Much as the odd occasional media story results in re-allocation of systems as a threat awareness arises. Who is to say whether a threat is actually any less effective than an action, depends on what the objective was. Harris was treated poorly by his own country, and that is still a matter to be rectified. A few squadrons of F-22 and F-35 would be nice, their life expectancy would be OK in the air, just being on the ground would be unhealthy. |
In the locker.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11221789)
He knows he’s losing big time, same with Laugharov, it all smacks of desperation. The only country interfering in Ukraine is Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61224804 |
US is struggling to restart Stinger and Javelin production as the DOD haven’t bought a Stinger in 18 years and several parts are no longer built, I am surprised they appear to be hand built.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...quickly-enough |
UAWIRE (dunno about their veracity or not) are reporting that M270's were first used by ukrainian forces on the 22/23rd.
M270's + atacms could start to explain some of these unexplainable spontanious combustions happening in russia |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11221789)
He knows he’s losing big time, same with Laugharov, it all smacks of desperation. The only country interfering in Ukraine is Russia.
The age-old problem with dictatorships, aside from the limited input from advisors and experts, was that the public would always tacitly and implicitly withdraw its support as news from the front grew ominous. Even - or rather especially - under autocracies, the people never felt accountable for their prior ecstatic allegiance to dangerous strongmen. They are never on record as formally approving risky national policies through free and transparent elections of such extremists in the first place. |
I have a question for you all re the link and post below..
why would they put off the sham vote, is it because they do not hold the full territory, or is it because that by recognising them in the rigged vote and absorbing them into the Russian Federation, it would then result in triggering their supposed nuclear threats to launch if their sovereignty was ever invaded, which it would then become as the Donbas would in effect be recognised by Russia as ermmm Russia? And as the DNR and LNR are such Russian loving enclaves welcoming Russia in as independent states hoping to become part of Russia, I did find the following rather amusing, strange for a Russian loving and embracing “independent enclave” However, the effort to recruit political strategists destined for the DNR and LNR hasn’t been going very well, The political officers are needed in order to maintain power in the occupied territories. So the population doesn’t shoot them in the back,” one of Meduza’s sources explained As Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third month, the Russian Defense Ministry has officially declared that its main aim has shifted to taking “full control” of the Donbas and southern Ukraine. According to Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin, establishing “full control” will involve orchestrating pseudo-referendums on the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” joining the Russian Federation — and on Russian-occupied Kherson declaring independence from Ukraine. However, these “referendums” have already been postponed until May, allegedly due Russia’s military failures in Ukraine. According to three Meduza sources close to Putin’s administration, the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (the DNR and LNR) may be set to hold Kremlin-engineered referendums on joining the Russian Federation in mid-May. Two of these people even gave specific dates for the planned “votes” — May 14 and 15, 2022. Russia recognized the DNR and LNR as independent states just days before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In doing so, Moscow acknowledged their territorial claims to the entirety of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions — implying that Russia would be seeking to annex the “republics” within these boundaries (despite the fact that Kyiv still controls many large settlements in the Donbas). According to Meduza’s sources, another pseudo-referendum may also be held on these same dates in Ukraine’s Kherson region, which Russian forces have partially occupied. Allegedly, the “vote” would be on the issue of the occupied region declaring independence from Ukraine and proclaiming itself the “Kherson People’s Republic” (modeled on those in the Donbas). Meduza’s sources also believe that Russia could move to annex the region at a later date. At the same time, Meduza’s sources noted that these “referendums” were initially set for late April, but were postponed several times due to the Russian army’s failures at the front. As such, they said, the dates could very well be pushed again for the same reason. Notably, Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin underscored that officials in Putin’s administration don’t think Russia should annex these “depressed regions” of Ukraine. Nevertheless, this is the personal desire of the “top leadership” — that is, of Putin himself. The DNR and LNR authorities did not respond to Meduza’s inquiries. In March, DNR leader Denis Pushilin and LNR leader Leonid Pasechnik mentioned plans to hold referendums on joining Russia — but only after Donetsk and Luhansk establish control over their “constitutional borders.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t respond to Meduza’s questions either. ‘Political officers’ wantedAccording to Meduza’s sources, preparations for the “referendums” in the DNR, LNR, and Kherson region will be handled by political strategists; Andrey Yarin and the FSB have been put in charge of hiring them. The FSB Public Relations Center did not respond to Meduza’s inquiries.These same political strategists will act as “political officers” (one of Meduza’s sources described the role using the Soviet-era term politruk) in the “military-civilian administrations” that are set to be installed in Ukrainian cities occupied by the Russian army. However, the effort to recruit political strategists destined for the DNR and LNR hasn’t been going very well, Meduza’s sources said. Allegedly, this is because the Kremlin is still offering the usual “pre-war rate” for working in the Donbas — between 200,000 and 300,000 rubles (roughly $2,700–$4,000) per month. ”The political officers] are needed in order to maintain power in the occupied territories. So the population doesn’t shoot them in the back,” one of Meduza’s sources explained. “Right now, in many places, there are actually Ukrainian administrations that influence people’s beliefs. This needs to be countered.” |
Putin could then say that it was a choice of the people to join Russia. A pathetic attempt to make it all seem legal. Doesn't work externally but might work internally. Putin is obsessed in trying to make everything seem legal to keep his nest clean.
what comes to political instructors, this leaflet from 1940's will come handy once again: "Politruk is worse than enemy. He shoots you in the back." https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....09944a80b5.jpg |
Answer. They put off the ‘vote’ until after the victory celebrations are over. (Safer done quietly and with much force, but might take time to squash inevitable short-term opposition and silence the general population).
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The reason the Ukrainian airforce survived. :) I cannot believe the US is releasing this stuff, 1 it shows your capability and 2 it’s piss poor security.. either that or it’s a bloody big bluff to make the Russians believe the NATO intelligence gathering is better than they think.
Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...m_npd_nn_tw_ma |
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