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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 27th Dec 2021 02:14


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11160859)
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.
.

Ah, yes, that"s just what the Russians did in the Soviet era but they did it in a much larger scale: move big portions of (or entire) ethnic people to somewhere else and replace them with ethnic Russians. A very striking example is the deportation of Crimean tatars. Then Russian was made mandatory in schools. The exact reasons why so many ex soviet countries have issues with ethnic russians nowadays are lying in soviet era.

The human suffering caused and crimes commited by russians during the entire existence of USSR are well remembered throughout ex soviet countries from Crimea to Carelia and Katyn to Kabul. With Putin being nostalgic about it and annexing parts of sovereign countries scares everyone else.

The famine caused by USSR in Ukraine combined with mass deportations of the era gives reason enought to stand against any Russian increment of influence.
You are saying that there is evidence of Ukrainian leadership trying to eliminate Russian minority. Well, Russian leadership HAS ELIMINATED ukrainians throughout the history and there are proof of it, too.

etudiant 27th Dec 2021 11:44


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11161212)
Ah, yes, that"s just what the Russians did in the Soviet era but they did it in a much larger scale: move big portions of (or entire) ethnic people to somewhere else and replace them with ethnic Russians. A very striking example is the deportation of Crimean tatars. Then Russian was made mandatory in schools. The exact reasons why so many ex soviet countries have issues with ethnic russians nowadays are lying in soviet era.

The human suffering caused and crimes commited by russians during the entire existence of USSR are well remembered throughout ex soviet countries from Crimea to Carelia and Katyn to Kabul. With Putin being nostalgic about it and annexing parts of sovereign countries scares everyone else.

The famine caused by USSR in Ukraine combined with mass deportations of the era gives reason enought to stand against any Russian increment of influence.
You are saying that there is evidence of Ukrainian leadership trying to eliminate Russian minority. Well, Russian leadership HAS ELIMINATED ukrainians throughout the history and there are proof of it, too.

All true, very dark history here, so lots of bitter hatreds.
That said, I see no upside for the Ukraine in penalizing the country's large minority groups by a blunderbuss ruling that hits not only the Russians, but also the Poles and the Hungarians.
Who wants to fight for a country that treats you as second rate?

A_Van 27th Dec 2021 12:26


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11160602)
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.

This already happened, but in the opposite direction. Pro-nazi Ukrainian nationalists threw bottles with this "cocktails" to the Russian consulate in Lvov (Lviv). Russia replied with the diplomatic note, only.

Regarding troops.
1. Ukraine concentrated more troops near the border than Russia (more than a half of their army) and started doing it first. Why this fact is not addressed when blaming Russia?
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?

Regarding escalation.
1. If any country plans to attack another, the first thing is to break all diplomatic and trade links, withdraw the personnel and warn its citizens that the territory is unsafe and they should relocate. Is this happening? No.
2. IMO, Russia has one serious move in its pocket - to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. Like it did with South Ossetia and Abhazia after Georgia started the war and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there. After that it can sign treaties to secure their security. But there are no signs of such warnings as yet.


Beamr 27th Dec 2021 13:21


Originally Posted by A_Van (Post 11161347)

Regarding troops.
1. Ukraine concentrated more troops near the border than Russia (more than a half of their army) and started doing it first. Why this fact is not addressed when blaming Russia?
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?

Ukrainian troops have not entrred Russian territory and eg shot down civilian aircrafts.
Ukraine has not annexed parts of Russia.
Ukrainian authorities have not threatened Russia with invasion.
Russia has done all that to Ukraine.
Russian soldiers have already entered Ukrainian soil.

So there is a big difference in Ukraine stationing its troops and Russia stationing its troops, as latter is already in Ukraine.

Beamr 27th Dec 2021 13:25


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11161336)
All true, very dark history here, so lots of bitter hatreds.
That said, I see no upside for the Ukraine in penalizing the country's large minority groups by a blunderbuss ruling that hits not only the Russians, but also the Poles and the Hungarians.
Who wants to fight for a country that treats you as second rate?

Apparently the russian speakers are already fighting for another country within Ukraine.

dead_pan 27th Dec 2021 16:41


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11161113)
It is hard to see what advantage the post coup Ukraine leadership hoped to derive by putting its minority Russian rooted citizens into the doghouse, for instance prohibiting Russian language public schools.

Yes but I'm sure Russia hasn't been idly standing by doing nothing either. You can bet they've been stirring things up too. Its pretty evident Putin is still p*ssed off at losing Ukraine. Question is, is he willing to risk everything to take it back?

The situation reminds me of that prior to the '03 Iraq invasion - all those troops marched up the hill on the thinnest of pretexts (if you ignore 911, which most Americans seem to do nowadays). Surely Vlad remembers what happened there? And that was with the world's premier superpower up against what was a pretty depleted and ragtag opponent...


dead_pan 27th Dec 2021 16:45


Originally Posted by A_Van (Post 11161347)
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?

Did you read Putin's demands of NATO?

Good to hear the alternate view, although I do wonder whether you're being entirely honest, wary that someone may be watching...

Lonewolf_50 27th Dec 2021 23:47


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11161336)
Who wants to fight for a country that treats you as second rate?

The answer to that question will surprise you, I suspect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/442nd_...(United_States)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/761st_...(United_States)



henra 28th Dec 2021 11:37


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11161369)
Apparently the russian speakers are already fighting for another country within Ukraine.

It's a two- sided sword. Looking at the current situation I can understand that Russian speaking parts of the population are considered a potential threat by Ukarinian Government and Western Ukrainian population in general as well.
That said, history has shown that suppressing people's native language creates long- lasting hatred and separation tendencies. Give people some level of autonomy and you have a chance (but not a guarantee) that they will stick with you. Suppress them and you can be sure that one day the time will come for them to spin off.

From my perspective that move of suppressing native peoples' native languages serves no immediate purpose (even if they can't speek Russian in public they will do in private and anyway remain pro- Russian. Should Russia send 'Green Men' they will still support them). But it saws anger an hatred. Not a clever move IMHO, although emotionally I can somewhat understand it.

Beamr 28th Dec 2021 12:01


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11161653)
It's a two- sided sword. Looking at the current situation I can understand that Russian speaking parts of the population are considered a potential threat by Ukarinian Government and Western Ukrainian population in general as well.
That said, history has shown that suppressing people's native language creates long- lasting hatred and separation tendencies. Give people some level of autonomy and you have a chance (but not a guarantee) that they will stick with you. Suppress them and you can be sure that one day the time will come for them to spin off.

From my perspective that move of suppressing native peoples' native languages serves no immediate purpose (even if they can't speek Russian in public they will do in private and anyway remain pro- Russian. Should Russia send 'Green Men' they will still support them). But it saws anger an hatred. Not a clever move IMHO, although emotionally I can somewhat understand it.

Absolutely, it hasn't worked anywhere, and USSR is a perfect example. But having or not a language available at primary school does not justify an invasion.

henra 28th Dec 2021 14:26


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11161659)
Absolutely, it hasn't worked anywhere, and USSR is a perfect example. But having or not a language available at primary school does not justify an invasion.

Indeed, It doesn't! But it gives a false 'felt legitimacy' to those who seek to get involved anyway. It victimises the Russian minority and gives Vlad' a welcome excuse to help his poor fellow neighbours at least in the eyes of his own population (and that's what counts for him).

etudiant 28th Dec 2021 16:19


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11161489)

Very good point, had not thought that through, there are lots of such examples, think for instance native troops in colonial regimes.

[email protected] 29th Dec 2021 09:31

I would have thought this was another worrying indicator of Putin's direction of travel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59808624

A dictator wishing to re-write history

NutLoose 29th Dec 2021 09:56


Originally Posted by A_Van (Post 11161347)
This already happened, but in the opposite direction. Pro-nazi Ukrainian nationalists threw bottles with this "cocktails" to the Russian consulate in Lvov (Lviv). Russia replied with the diplomatic note, only.

Regarding troops.
1. Ukraine concentrated more troops near the border than Russia (more than a half of their army) and started doing it first. Why this fact is not addressed when blaming Russia?
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?

Regarding escalation.
1. If any country plans to attack another, the first thing is to break all diplomatic and trade links, withdraw the personnel and warn its citizens that the territory is unsafe and they should relocate. Is this happening? No.
2. IMO, Russia has one serious move in its pocket - to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. Like it did with South Ossetia and Abhazia after Georgia started the war and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there. After that it can sign treaties to secure their security. But there are no signs of such warnings as yet.

You’re living in cuckoo land,

Ukraine may have more troops at the borders, but that was only in direct response to the threat of invasion that proved correct when you invaded Crimea, which no matter how you dress it up was Russia, and now those troops are preventing the loss of more of the Country while attempting to regain the lands lost, funny is put it, the never needed to put them on the western borders because they never feared an invasion from the west.

Recognise independent states….. what like they did with Poland, East Germany, Romania, Etc etc etc, all supposedly independent states answering to and under the control of Russia.

As for the Molotov Cocktails, as I said, bomb your own building then blame it on a neo nazi group to add to the list of excuses / reasons to eventually invade.

A_Van 29th Dec 2021 11:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11162043)
You’re living in cuckoo land,

No, I am living in the middle of the events addressed, having friends and relatives in the Ukraine too. While you are somewhere far away being brainwashed by BBC, CNN and other russophobic propaganda.


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11162043)
Ukraine may have more troops at the borders, but that was only in direct response to the threat of invasion that proved correct when you invaded Crimea,

Study history and geography of this region, please. Russia did not invade Crimea, nor did I personally. Before the Crimeans voted for independence, there were about 20K of the Russian troop legally in Crimea and the same amount of the Ukrainian troops. After the vote, about 30% of the Ukrainian troops were happy to volunteerly join the Russian army, about 30% retired and remained living there, and the last one third peacefully relocated to the mainland. No shooting, just 1 Russian and 1 Ukrainian killed by an unidentified sniper who likely wanted to start a big fire. Civil war in Ukraine started after the pro-nazi coup de etat inspired and supported by the West.



Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11162043)
As for the Molotov Cocktails, as I said, bomb your own building then blame it on a neo nazi group to add to the list of excuses / reasons to eventually invade.

The reality is opposite to what you said. Insane nationalists threw bottles to the Russian consulate and they did not hide themselves.

More dangerous is "playing" with chemical stuff by the US mercenaries (or you may call them contractors or instructors) planning the same dirty tricks as "white helmets" (controlled by them) did in Syria.
Hope it will not happen.

Beamr 29th Dec 2021 11:56


Originally Posted by [email protected] (Post 11162033)
I would have thought this was another worrying indicator of Putin's direction of travel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59808624

A dictator wishing to re-write history

You beat me to it with that one.
There is yet another interesting story : https://www.dw.com/en/foreigners-in-...cks/a-60182104
It gives you the idea that Russians really want to get rid of all the foreigners.

Quote: "The amendment states that foreign professionals, their family members living in Russia and any foreigner who wants to stay in the country for an extended period of time have to be tested every three months for infectious diseases, including syphilis, HIV, leprosy, tuberculosis, and COVID-19. They are also required to take a drug test and must submit their fingerprints and a biometric photo to the authorities."

In essence, everyone over the age of 6 (six) has to test for eg syphilis and drugs every three months...
Now here's the catch: it does not apply if you are a belarusian... Being on Putins leash gets yet another meaning.

NutLoose 29th Dec 2021 12:17


Quote: "The amendment states that foreign professionals, their family members living in Russia and any foreigner who wants to stay in the country for an extended period of time have to be tested every three months for infectious diseases, including syphilis, HIV, leprosy, tuberculosis, and COVID-19. They are also required to take a drug test and must submit their fingerprints and a biometric photo to the authorities."
Irony:
assuming you are living in country and have been tested a couple of times, the only place you are going to get those diseases is from the local untested populace.

fitliker 29th Dec 2021 17:21

Just a ruse to get DNA samples . If you have to get an X-ray ask the technician when it was last calibrated . If the technician does not know , you might want to re-book the tests at a facility that checks their equipment . It does not take much error to make you bald or turn your hair white .

NutLoose 30th Dec 2021 01:25

[QUOTE=NutLoose;11162308]Gas prices are tumbling after US sends liquified gas tankers to the EU

Putin hits back! Russia ramps up pressure on EU after Biden's gas threat crumbles (msn.com)




In a televised government meeting, the Russian President said today (Wednesday) that the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas pipeline would stabilise gas prices in Europe.

His remarks appear to indicate that the US's decision to send 20 liquefied natural gas tankers to Europe was interpreted as a threat to the Kremlin .


Mr Putin also told the meeting that the second line of the pipe would soon be filled with gas.

Construction on the pipeline - which runs from Russia to Germany on the bed of the Baltic Sea - was completed in September.

However, it has laid idle while awaiting regulatory approval from Berlin and Brussels and has become a political tool in growing tensions between the West and Russia.

Earlier today, Russian state media reported that Alexander Novak, the country's Deputy Prime Minister, believed the pipeline would be given the green light in the first half of 2022.

The EU has been struggling with an energy crisis since a global shortage of natural gas earlier this year.

The economic bloc - whose largest supplier of gas is Russia - had been hampered by a reduced supply.

Mr Putin has faced accusations that he was engineering the crisis, using the monopoly on gas in Europe to drive up prices.

After the US sent its own tankers laden with liquefied natural gas, the price of gas in Europe tumbled.


EU natural gas prices extended losses for the sixth day in a row to €100 (£84.19) per megawatt-hour, the lowest in three weeks.

It is now trading roughly 45 percent below a record high of €180.27 (£151.78) reached last week.

Russia has appeared at times anxious to have the pipeline, which unlike the current supply to Europe would circumvent Ukraine, certified by the EU.

The EU's hesitancy to agree to the new pipeline comes amid tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Today, Mr Novak said: "The project vehicle implementing the Nord Stream 2 project is acting strictly in line with European laws.

"Any demands above current laws are of political nature."

Nord Stream 2 is opposed by Washington, which believes the pipeline will make the EU even more reliant on Russian gas.

In November, the Biden administration imposed further sanctions connected to the pipeline in an effort to stop its approval.

At the time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said America must "push back against harmful Russian activities, including in the energy sphere".

[email protected] 30th Dec 2021 06:56

A Van

While you are somewhere far away being brainwashed by BBC, CNN and other russophobic propaganda.
Who is trying to brainwash who here? The rest of the world recognises Putin and his pseudo dictatorship for what it is but only the Russian media is telling the truth?????


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