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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

fitliker 23rd Dec 2021 23:06

Peace is achievable.

ATSA1 24th Dec 2021 08:31

Peace is always acheivable..it just needs someone to swallow their pride, and back down...

Less Hair 24th Dec 2021 08:37

Peace is our profession.

NutLoose 24th Dec 2021 12:19

Peace in our time? Double bluff?

unmanned_droid 24th Dec 2021 14:15

Are they on their start lines or is de-escalation happening?

Beamr 24th Dec 2021 16:01

Russia says Molotov cocktail thrown at consulate in Ukraine, protests to Ukraine authorities
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2021-12-24/

Satellite images show Russia still building up forces near Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2021-12-24/

Are the Russians planning to "protect their citizens" like in 2014?

henra 24th Dec 2021 16:29


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11159995)
Now Russian citizens as Putin has issued them all Russian passports.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31234248.html

All of them???
Eastern Ukraine (even Donbass + Luhansk alone) has much more inhabitants than the 500.000!?

Classic casus belli.
???
For whome?
Ukraine? Should they invade Russia?
Russia? why would that be a reason for them to wage a war?


NutLoose 24th Dec 2021 16:34

It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.

Tartiflette Fan 24th Dec 2021 16:44


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11160602)
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.

Now where's the nearest Dutchman ?

West Coast 24th Dec 2021 20:41


Originally Posted by ATSA1 (Post 11160411)
Peace is always acheivable..it just needs someone to swallow their pride, and back down...

Who in this case?

GlobalNav 25th Dec 2021 04:50


Originally Posted by West Coast (Post 11160651)
Who in this case?

A question that reminds me of the Irish “Troubles”

The true answer? Both

Beamr 25th Dec 2021 05:23


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11160602)
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.

reminds of an attack to a certain radio station in Poland in 1939 and what came out of that.

ORAC 25th Dec 2021 07:05

The passport/citizenship issue in eastern Ukraine is redolent of the Sudetenland Crisis…

https://www.historyhit.com/sudetenland/

treadigraph 25th Dec 2021 17:05

Telegraph reporting that 10000 Russian soldiers have pulled back pending talks with US/UN...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...de-escalation/


Russia pulls back 10,000 troops from near Ukraine in surprise de-escalation

Move comes ahead of expected talks with the US potential Nato concessions, but analysts warn there is still an 'enhanced' military presence


Russia said on Saturday it was pulling back about 10,000 troops from near the Ukrainian border in an unexpected major de-escalation as it gears up for talks on Nato concessions with the United States.

The troops from the Southern Military District will return to their permanent bases after months of drills near Ukraine because they have accomplished their tasks, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.

"A stage of combat coordination of divisions, combat crews, squads at motorised units... has been completed. More than 10,000 military servicemen... will march to their permanent deployment from the territory of the combined arms' area of drills," Interfax quoted the army as saying.

The exercises were held in several regions near Ukraine, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as well as in the southern Russian regions of Rostov and Kuban, according to the report.

Russia has been amassing troops and equipment near the border with Ukraine since October, raising fears of an imminent invasion. Military analysts have said the buildup was inconsistent with regular military exercises.

West Coast 25th Dec 2021 17:29


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11160728)
A question that reminds me of the Irish “Troubles”

The true answer? Both

What should the Ukraine do differently?

NutLoose 25th Dec 2021 18:33

Nothing, they are an independent sovereign state and neither should NATO, we were invited into the new Countries of NATO and have worked together in peace and prosperity, we didn’t take them by force as the old Soviet Union did, they are on the whole also part of the EU as well, a free and democratic gathering.

etudiant 25th Dec 2021 20:40


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11160832)
Nothing, they are an independent sovereign state and neither should NATO, we were invited into the new Countries of NATO and have worked together in peace and prosperity, we didn’t take them by force as the old Soviet Union did, they are on the whole also part of the EU as well, a free and democratic gathering.

Think it is perhaps more complicated.
Ukraine is a post WW2 construct, generated by the USSR to boost its voting power in the UN.
Khrushchev arbitrarily allocated Crimea and surrounds to the Ukraine in the 1950s, perhaps to atone for his role in the murder by starvation of millions of Ukraine peasants as a part of Stalin's anti Kulak regime.
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.

Think the conflict here is entirely stupid, Ukraine is so closely related to Russia that the idea of a non Russia linked state is asking for a civil war.
Competent political leadership recognizes these realities and adjusts for them.

ORAC 25th Dec 2021 21:12

More Sudetenland type arguments etudiant.

Ukraine is a sovereign country, recognised by the UN and it’s security guaranteed by the signature nations to the Budapest Memorandum - including Russia.

GeeRam 26th Dec 2021 10:17


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11160859)
Think it is perhaps more complicated.
Ukraine is a post WW2 construct, generated by the USSR to boost its voting power in the UN.
Khrushchev arbitrarily allocated Crimea and surrounds to the Ukraine in the 1950s, perhaps to atone for his role in the murder by starvation of millions of Ukraine peasants as a part of Stalin's anti Kulak regime.
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.

Think the conflict here is entirely stupid, Ukraine is so closely related to Russia that the idea of a non Russia linked state is asking for a civil war.

My ex-MiL was born in Lviv in Poland in 1930.....but since WW2 Lviv has been in Ukraine, but pre-WW2 a great swathe of what is now western Ukraine, over half of what is now Belarus, and even part of what is now south-eastern Lithuania, including Vilnius was all Poland.


etudiant 26th Dec 2021 17:29


Originally Posted by GeeRam (Post 11160991)
My ex-MiL was born in Lviv in Poland in 1930.....but since WW2 Lviv has been in Ukraine, but pre-WW2 a great swathe of what is now western Ukraine, over half of what is now Belarus, and even part of what is now south-eastern Lithuania, including Vilnius was all Poland.

Very much to the point, the national frontiers were shifted to the west after WW2, so the ethnic structures of the countries involved changed. Creating a new national consciousness is not easy under these circumstances.
It is hard to see what advantage the post coup Ukraine leadership hoped to derive by putting its minority Russian rooted citizens into the doghouse, for instance prohibiting Russian language public schools.
The effect has been to accentuate the fissures in the country, rather than to consolidate it..
A perspective on the education law and the issues that it has accentuated is here: https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...sm_808516.html


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