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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Fly-by-Wife 16th Apr 2022 12:20


Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier (Post 11216287)
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?

giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.

Poland already operates 48 F16 C/D, so probably won't have much difficulty assimilating a couple of dozen more to replace the MiG29s, while they wait for the F-35s they have already ordered.

Timmy Tomkins 16th Apr 2022 13:17

Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv

Tartiflette Fan 16th Apr 2022 13:27


Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier (Post 11216287)
it's been a while since those Polski M29s have been mentioned. How might that work now though?
giving them to Ukraine and expecting new F16s FOC from uncle Sam sounds just a little cheeky. And leaves Poland for now with very much reduced air assets until they were current on the F16s.
?

There are very few details - and those unconfirmed - out there about who is paying for what. Where do you have this information ?

FlightDetent 16th Apr 2022 14:42

Has this not aged weirdly?


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d1917059c2.png


But then, neither Shoigu was a soldier.

pasta 16th Apr 2022 15:00


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11216373)
Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv

Russia claiming that the strikes took out the factories that built the missiles that didn't hit their cruiser.

WideScreen 16th Apr 2022 15:07


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11216255)
A good articl thanks Nutty. A rather pertinent quote from it“We have exaggerated the risk, and the Russians know this,” he said. “We have the most powerful alliance in the history of the world scared to provide 25-year-old aircraft to a country that’s fighting for its life.”

“If we are the arsenal of democracy, then let’s be the arsenal of democracy and open the doors and push everything out that [Ukrainians] possibly need,”

It's not that strange, that things go gradually.

Remember the old adage, dumping a frog in boiling water, makes it jumping out, vs the slow heat-up and the frog happily indulges in a warm bath ?

And despite Ukraine asking for Migs, there does not seem to have been a big need for aircraft. Much more for SAMs, Manpads, ATGM, ATGW, Artillery, drones and the like. As long as operational BUK systems are in the area, keep out of that area with your aircraft. Use drones to do the dirty work.

On top of that, getting a heavily partisan divided congress approving your money requests, as a president you need to take care, the congress wants more than you "intend" to do. From then on, the congress won't complain, when you start spending billions. It just takes time.

Regarding the nuclear threats: Moving the Russian nukes to the Finnish boarder sounds impressive, though, given these things do have sufficient range to reach all of Europe, even when fired from Moscow, bordering does not bring much advantage. Of course, unless you have doubts about the technical quality of these things and want to avoid them nuking your own territory. In the end, from the maintenance state of both Russian army and navy, we see that not much is done to keep things shiny, let alone functional. Nukes need to be overhauled every 10 years (costly), to operate reliable. Radiation destroys pretty well everything, as well that due to natural decay of especially Plutonium, you have the risk of ending up below the critical mass/density and the nuke won't explode when triggered.



Ninthace 16th Apr 2022 15:35


Originally Posted by pasta (Post 11216418)
Russia claiming that the strikes took out the factories that built the missiles that didn't hit their cruiser.

Precision strike on a factory claimed. Same thing on theatres, hospitals and apartment blocks denied.

NutLoose 16th Apr 2022 15:46

One of the problems Russia now faces is they have destroyed, raped and killed large parts of the Donbas they recognised as independent and in the south they have alienated large parts of the Russian speaking populace that are now seeing the cost of their freedom. and they do not want the Russian occupiers full stop. You get the feeling they now want to remain part of Ukraine.


ORAC 16th Apr 2022 17:16

FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…


NutLoose 16th Apr 2022 18:15

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1f106e307c.png


The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

Russia warns Czechia against supplying weapons to Ukraine, Prague says won't respond to blackmail. Russia claimed that the Czech Republic isn’t allowed to provide Ukraine with Soviet-made weapons without Russian permission. Czech Defense Minister brushed off these claims.

The Kyiv Independent

Italy closes its ports to Russian ships starting April 17. Under EU sanctions, Russian ships anchored in Italian ports will have to leave after completing their commercial activity. The ban will also apply to ships that changed their flag after Feb. 24 to circumvent sanctions.

Wokkafans 16th Apr 2022 19:00


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11216479)
FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…



West Coast 16th Apr 2022 19:02


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11216413)
Has this not aged weirdly?


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d1917059c2.png


But then, neither Shoigu was a soldier.

Poland’s guy looks right proper for the job. If not that, he could pass (sans the facial hair) for a pissed off Sergeant Major.

dead_pan 16th Apr 2022 19:41

Pains me to say but the Russian advance around Izyium looks far better organized and threatening than anything they have done to date.

Lonewolf_50 16th Apr 2022 19:47


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11216373)
Russian Missile strikes on Kyiv & Lviv

From an article here.

An independent Russian website calculated that on Saturday Russian forces had sent a record 52 missiles from the occupied Black Sea port of Sevastopol, and at least 18 from Belarusian territory. The website, The Insider, found that of the 70 rockets, at least eight landed, meaning that Ukraine had also repelled a significant amount. Those figures could not be independently verified.

macmp419 16th Apr 2022 20:30


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11216536)
Pains me to say but the Russian advance around Izyium looks far better organized and threatening than anything they have done to date.

dead-pan, Please can you share your source(s) 👍

FlightDetent 16th Apr 2022 20:38


Originally Posted by West Coast (Post 11216522)
Poland’s guy looks right proper for the job.

Sure. While he got replaced in 2018, the larger context is U.v.d.Leyen got boo(s)ted from her position of MoD GER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_von_der_Leyen to become the apex EU official. Some scary details in the Wiki article.

GlobalNav 16th Apr 2022 20:49


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11216479)
FSB have arrested the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

1941 purge all over again…


Wonder if they could arrest the someone who really is to blame, and put an end to this evil.

NutLoose 16th Apr 2022 20:57

Interesting read on what artillery Ukraine needs and why.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/wh...aine-need-now/

also, the long war.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/su...he-long-war-2/

..

NutLoose 16th Apr 2022 21:05


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11216539)

While bad, it does strike me as retaliatory and counter productive, having shifted their focus to the East, lobbing missiles to the North are not doing anything militarily to bolster the offensive in the East. It’s almost as if Putin has spat his dummy out over the sinking and is illogically shooting at Kyiv to get his own back.


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