Would Putin's boys really want to fight a war in early winter? Its only going to get colder between now and March next year...
Then its all mud...so maybe May next year would be a better time to roll forward?
Or is the unpleasantness of 1941 -45 lost on the Russian military?

Only 6% of the Russian land border is shred with a NATO member state.

It’s the only time they can - the soft swampy ground in the southern Ukraine around the Donbas region only gets hard enough for their tanks to cross when it freezes in early January.

lets hope for a warm snap just as they get there then


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5b571cf5f7.jpg

That is surely why Russia developped the 9M729 Version of Iskander-K and left INF. I have a hard time imagining they did that as a means of last resort to fend of these pesky Polish/German/Czech/Dutch invasion troops trying to overrun Russia....

Those countries along her western borders with large Russian-speaking populations will be nervous of 5th column efforts by Putin.

i believe that it is over 20% in Ukraine. If true that’s a lot of people.

Perhaps through certain eyes the exploitable weakness of the west is independence movements.

More heavy equipment being moved close to Ukrainian border

Where's Clare Hollingworth ?
 

...
Where's Clare Hollingworth when we need her ?

LFH
...

Try somewhere closer to 90% in the two regions in question. First language in schools etc.

https://www.politico.eu/article/g7-w...ssion-ukraine/

G7 warns Russia of ‘massive consequences’ if it attacks Ukraine

Russia will face “massive consequences and severe cost” if it pursues further military aggression against Ukraine, foreign ministers from the G7 group of democratic powers warned Sunday.

The G7 countries are united in their “condemnation of Russia’s military build-up and aggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine,” ministers said in a statement following two days of talks in the northern English city of Liverpool.

“We call on Russia to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels, and abide by its international commitments on transparency of military activities,” reads the statement, on behalf of ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.”

The text does not clarify what such consequences could entail, but Western leaders have spoken about economic sanctions on Russia and increased defense assistance to Ukraine, rather than a direct military response.…

The G7 foreign ministers’ statement indirectly rejected Russian demands that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO, stressing that the country had the right to decide on its future alignment.

“We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future,” the text says while stressing that “we commend Ukraine’s posture of restraint.”…..

Russia will dismiss this as the usual rhetoric from the usual suspects.

Shame China didn't add its name to this declaration. Phat chance of that though - they're more than happy for the west and Russia to lock horns once again over Ukraine, as their military build-up continues apace.

Let's just hope whatever happens if it all kicks off, that all sides take a wide berth around Chernobyl for the sake of Europe, and let's hope for a mild and wet winter along the border.. nice and muddy.

If he makes a move to cross the border I can imagine that it’ll be on a Friday night when the eyes of the world are watching some new crisis unfolding somewhere else.

They might just wait for tourist season and send “ Tourists “ or Pilgrims to visit the Holy Sites of St. Olga

We could have a sweepstake on this .. Put me down for Christmas Day or New Years Eve, or if the RAF is to get involved Weekends or Friday afternoons... Christmas Holiday period, Weekend and Christmas Day all rolled into one this year have to make the 25th / 26th the odds on favourite leaving the gate guards and whoever else is still floating about to generate the fleets.. ;)
New Years day will also qualify as a weekend full of drunk or recovering servicemen.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ia-2021-12-13/

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

Does it really matter if they are a tinsy winsy little bit closer, neither side would survive the encounter.

Putin does seem to be making increasingly unhinged threats.

Russia, as opposed to the USSR plus Warsaw Pact, doesn’t present a realistic threat to Europe - even if it does to the Baltic states and Ukraine.

Realistically, why deploy IRBM or the equivalent? There is no real threat to Russia - and no realistic chance would bomb its only major market.