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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 7th Dec 2021 07:21

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...arty-5wstpsw3h

Ukraine conflict: Putin invites separatist leaders into his party

The leaders of Kremlin-backed separatist republics in east Ukraine have been made members of President Putin’s ruling United Russia party amid escalating tensions over the Donbas conflict zone.

Denis Pushilin, who heads the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), and Leonid Pasechnik, who leads the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), were handed party tickets by Dmitry Medvedev, United Russia’s chairman, at its glittering annual congress in Moscow.

Although Putin, 69, stepped down as the head of United Russia in 2012, the Kremlin said last week that he remained its “informal” leader.

Pushilin, 40, said his invitation to the annual congress and his membership of Putin’s party was evidence that United Russia “considers Donbas a part of greater Russia”.…. Russia says it has handed out half a million passports to residents of the DPR and the LPR. It has not yet recognised them as independent states, however.

Pushilin warned last week that he could appeal to Russia for military assistance if Ukraine tried to retake the breakaway republics by force.….


jolihokistix 7th Dec 2021 07:22

Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea. Can’t be taken out as easily as a bridge.

Asturias56 7th Dec 2021 07:35

"Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea."

I think ultimately they'd like a land corridor to Calais

Tashengurt 7th Dec 2021 08:10

Ah, we're going to cripple Russia financially if they don't behave.
Ironic statement to make on December 7th.

henra 7th Dec 2021 09:28


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11152503)
"Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea."
I think ultimately they'd like a land corridor to Calais

I'm really ciritcal towards their aggressive behaviour against Ukraine and the Baltics. But I'm very sure they are not aiming at claiming back Poland or other former Warsaw Pact states.
That said they are for sure interested in the former scope of the USSR as their target sphere of influence. The really explosive part in that regard are the Baltics. A Land corridor to Kaliningrad would mean occupying NATO territory and would be a complete No- Go. And this has to be absolutely clear and un- misunderstandable. A true Red Line. I support bringing in massive troops, Drones and Fighters to demonstrate the readiness to support this.
WRT to Ukraine for me the story is different. I heavily support massive sanctions in case of Russian Aggression. Provision of defensive armament (Stinger, Javelin&Co) to Ukraine. But no direct NATO troop involvement.
Red Lines have to be Red Lines. Invading NATO territory is a Red Line. Full stop. This shouldn't be watered down by semi- red lines for Non- NATO states which in the end are not kept. This opens up room for interpretation regarding the true Red Lines.

ORAC 7th Dec 2021 10:51


Ultimately Russia would like a land corridor to the Crimea.
I’d suggest more of an interest in a corridor all the way to Transnistria in Moldova. That would deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea and regain the major port of Odessa….

A matched pair, so t9 speak, with a move to take a land corridor back to Kaliningrad and it’s warm water Baltic port.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

henra 7th Dec 2021 11:03


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11152579)
I’d suggest more of an interest in a corridor all the way to Transnistria in Moldova. That would deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea and regain the major port of Odessa….

Could possibly be a target.

with a move to take a land corridor back to Kaliningrad and it’s warm water Baltic port.
I doubt it.
How would Russia achieve that without invading NATO territory with all possible and likely consequences?

Just This Once... 7th Dec 2021 19:42

I know the US became increasingly fast and loose with treaties during the Trump rein but it looks like the UK will be on this path with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances apparently in the bin. Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons in 1996 in exchange for assurances on its security and sovereignty.

Not a great lesson for those countries considering their own nuclear weapons future. Nuclear weapons seemingly matter much more than treaties with the major powers when it comes to defending oneself. Now about that NATO treaty...

ORAC 8th Dec 2021 08:24

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...vades-ukraine/

How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...nvasion-523884

Biden warns Putin on call against Ukraine invasion

Asturias56 8th Dec 2021 09:08

"Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons i"

that and the death of Gadhafi show why N Korea and Iran are busting their guts to be N powers

NutLoose 8th Dec 2021 14:37

Hmmmm....

https://dailycaller.com/2021/12/08/r...clear-weapons/


Republican Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker said Tuesday that President Joe Biden shouldn’t rule out “nuclear action” against Russia over its military build-up along the Ukraine’s border.
Wicker, the second-highest ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, gave an interview Tuesday to Fox News’ Neil Cavuto, during which he spoke of the need for “tougher” military measures in response to Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine.The senator noted that there are already more than 200 U.S. National Guard troops on Ukrainian soil.
“I would not rule out military action,” he said. “I think we start making mistake when we take options off the table. I would hope the president keeps that option on the table.”

When asked to clarify what he meant by “military action,” Wicker recounted measures ranging from the American “ships in the Black Sea” to “first-use nuclear action.” (RELATED: Biden To Threaten Putin With ‘Significant And Severe Economic Harm’ If Russia Invades Ukraine)

“We don’t rule out first-use nuclear action, we don’t think it will happen but there are certain things in negotiations, if you are going to be tough, that you don’t take off the table,” the Mississippi senator added.

Additionally, Wicker praised his Democratic counterparts’ calls for more decisive steps towards containing the Russian military aggression, which may endanger “the free Europe.”

melmothtw 8th Dec 2021 15:40


"Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons i"

that and the death of Gadhafi show why N Korea and Iran are busting their guts to be N powers
Have to agree that the takeaway for any nation with an overbearing neighbour and/or any despot looking to secure his position is to acquire nuclear weapons at all costs.

ORAC 8th Dec 2021 21:24


NutLoose 9th Dec 2021 11:16

one Question,

Part of Bidens sanctions involves the Nord pipeline, but if Russia invades and takes the Ukraine which I hope does not happen, he would then control the pipeline through the Ukraine so the Nord Pipeline would not really matter.in the then scheme of things.

Also refusing to help the country by putting troops in surely is kicking the legs out from under the Ukraine and virtually telling Putin he is free to invade wherever he chooses free from repercussions because the west will not intervene. So much for promises made when they agreed to disarm their nuclear stockpiles and sadly it means no one else will when given assurances from any western country, and that includes us. If the Ukraine is attacked do they have the abilty to destroy the gas pipeline to the west in retaliation against Russia? rather Like Saddam and the oil fields.

ORAC 9th Dec 2021 11:26

You are presuming that they Ukrainian don’t have a scorched earth plan of destroying the pipeline and pumping stations across the country as they retreat. Why leave it to fall into Russian hands?

unmanned_droid 9th Dec 2021 12:44

Are we considering that it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine rather than a limited incursion to secure certain 'russian' enclaves?

fitliker 9th Dec 2021 14:45

Some reports that small arms and Javelin anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Kiev /Kyiv .

dead_pan 9th Dec 2021 15:45


Originally Posted by unmanned_droid (Post 11153567)
Are we considering that it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine rather than a limited incursion to secure certain 'russian' enclaves?

Most likely option (also to secure the land-bridge to the Crimean peninsula) - leave the rest of the country for some possible future date. I wonder if Vlad would consider this worthwhile given the likely economic and material/manpower cost?


Some reports that small arms and Javelin anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Kiev /Kyiv .
Small beer in the grand scheme, although Russian armour does seem particularly susceptible to modern AT weaponry.

fitliker 9th Dec 2021 16:08


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11153646)
Most likely option (also to secure the land-bridge to the Crimean peninsula) - leave the rest of the country for some possible future date. I wonder if Vlad would consider this worthwhile given the likely economic and material/manpower cost?



Small beer in the grand scheme, although Russian armour does seem particularly susceptible to modern AT weaponry.

Somewhere in the fine print of the many warnings regarding mutual assured destruction there is reference to targeting the factories where weapons are manufactured . Small detail , but the Devil can be hidden in the details.

NutLoose 9th Dec 2021 16:12

It seems the drone attacks are getting to them as well and they are putting protection in place on their tanks.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ears-in-crimea



In occupied #Crimea, this #Russia|n tank is fitted with what looks like a type of slat armour over the turret specifically designed to protect against top down attack like the Javelin ATGM, which are now in use by #Ukraine’s armed forces:


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