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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Lyneham Lad 7th Apr 2022 09:56

^^^^ Amongst other information that topic is also in The Times today:-

Russian commander ‘told soldiers to fire on Mariupol civilians’


A Russian commander ordered his soldiers to open fire and “take out” Ukrainian civilians near the besieged city of Mariupol, according to what Kyiv said was an intercepted radio conversation.

“There are two people coming out of the grove in civilian [clothes],” an unnamed Russian soldier says in an obscenity-strewn recording, which was made public by Ukraine’s SBU security service.

He also says that a vehicle has been spotted but it is unclear whether it is civilian or military. “Take them all f***ing out!” his superior screams in reply, adding that it was unimportant if there were non-combatants or not at the scene. “Off them all, f***!”

“Got it,” the soldier replies.

Judging by the soldiers’ comments, the incident is believed to have taken place in a village near Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov. The port on the Dnieper river has been under siege and near-constant bombardment by President Putin’s forces for 40 days, and an estimated 120,000 residents are cut off without power and with dwindling supplies. According to local officials, 5,000 people have been killed by Russian shelling and airstrikes and 90 per cent of the city’s buildings have been destroyed or damaged — including homes, hospitals, schools and a theatre where hundreds of civilians had taken refuge.

Ukraine says it has been easy to intercept conversations between Russian forces because they are using outdated radio equipment or commercial walkie-talkies to communicate.

In the leaked recording, another Russian soldier can be heard complaining that he and his colleagues are vastly outnumbered and receiving no support from Moscow. “Their [Ukrainian] group has 150,000 [soldiers]! And there’s, f***, 3,000 of us, if that . . . They are on the left, on the right, encircling us, f***! There’s so many of them and so few of us. We don’t have any support, no aviation, not a f***ing thing.”


A separate leak revealed that to address declining morale and panic in the ranks, the Russian army had instructed commanders to restrict soldiers’ access to smartphones.

A military directive, revealed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, states that “commanders of all ranks have faced opposition from personnel” who have been influenced by the “internet and popular messengers”.

“The security services have become aware of numerous cases of soldiers being blackmailed through their personal data and cases of soldiers being deceived with false information communicated to them personally through messenger apps such as Viber, WhatsApp, Telegram, Vkontakte and others,” according to the document.

In response the Russian army said it would exert “increased control” over use of the internet, limiting their use of social media on their mobile phones and subjecting them to check-ups of their “moral-psychological state”.

It also emerged yesterday that Russia’s military had boasted about killing dozens of Ukrainian “deserters” who fled the devastated southern city.

Mikhail Mizintsev, a Russian colonel general, said last month that his forces had “liquidated” 93 alleged fighters who had tried to escape. He said they had been wearing civilian clothes when they were killed, according to RT, the Kremlin-backed media outlet. It was unclear how the Russian army knew they were servicemen and why they were not offered the chance to surrender.

Mizintsev, 59, who has been called the Butcher of Mariupol, is accused of a number of war crimes, including an attack on a maternity hospital and the theatre.

In another audio recording previously made public by Ukraine, Mizintsev, who heads Russia’s National Defence Management Centre, said that a Russian soldier’s ear should be cut off as punishment for not wearing the correct uniform. Mizintsev was in charge of Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, which flattened the city of Aleppo.

Britain’s Ministry of Defence said that most of the remaining residents of Mariupol had no electricity, communication, medicine, heating or water.

President Zelensky said that Russia was blocking humanitarian access to Mariupol because it wanted to hide evidence of “thousands” of people killed there. “The reason why we cannot get into Mariupol with the humanitarian cargo is precisely because they are afraid . . . that the world will see what is going on there,” he told Turkey’s Haberturk TV yesterday.

A convoy carrying more than 500 civilians from the area around Mariupol did reach Zaporizhzhya, about 140 miles to the north, yesterday in the largest evacuation so far. The International Committee of the Red Cross team led the convoy of buses and cars back to relative safety, having spent five days and four nights trying to reach Mariupol. They came within 12 miles of the city but conditions became too dangerous to enter.

Those arriving in Zaporizhzhya said they had witnessed suffering and death.


dead_pan 7th Apr 2022 10:28


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11211845)
Nutty....they forgot to list the huge loss of Face the Russians suffered at the hands of the Ukraine Defense Forces.

Now it is up to the Western Powers to ante up with Logistical Support and supply of ALL kinds of lethal and humanitarian aid possible.

There is no way to spin it.....the Russians bit off far. more than they can chew.

Unless and until the Russian Leadership accept a negotiated peace settlement....this will turn into a very costly war of attrition for both sides.....and my money says the Russians do not have the Heart or motivation to win this thing.

All these Dead Russians have families at home who certainly do not think such sacrifice is worth it.

That bodes ill for Putin et al.

Its heartening that NATO is now holding almost weekly conferences now to discuss military aid to Ukraine. From the reports I've seen the flow of aid of all types seems to be growing apace.

I think the decisive battle of the war is about to take place in the east. If Ukraine can hold out and counter effectively, then there's a distinct possibility of another Russian collapse. Also, the pressure on Russian forces to conclude something/anything by May 9th must be driving all kinds of irrational decisions and behaviours which could well spell their doom.

NutLoose 7th Apr 2022 11:02

There are discussions going on in the US asking about bringing back lend lease

https://twitter.com/search?q=Donbass...rc=typed_query



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....917246470.jpeg

NutLoose 7th Apr 2022 11:08

At this rate the Russians are going to need a Sh*tload of Embassy gates, first Dublin and now..

RE: postal addresses. Some countries have renamed the streets for the Russian embassies and suggest mail will not be delivered to RU embassy if correct address is not used.
Latvia & Lithuania have renamed the streets of its Russian embassies to support. The new addresses – with signs in Ukrainian – are...
Latvia: Russian Embassy, Independent Ukraine Street, Riga.
Lithuania: Russian Embassy, Ukrainian Heroes' Street, Vilnius.
Tirana, Albania - "Free Ukraine".




dead_pan 7th Apr 2022 11:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11211898)

Not sure when this map was compiled but there appears to be a few errors e.g. India and SA are nominally supporting Russia (or at least, haven't condemned the invasion). Also some of the 'Stans have stated that they support the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

[email protected] 7th Apr 2022 11:51

From Wiki

The Russian Revolution was inaugurated with the February Revolution in 1917. This first revolt focused in and around the then-capital Petrograd (now Saint Petersburg). After major military losses during the war, the Russian Army had begun to mutiny. Army leaders and high ranking officials were convinced that if Tsar Nicholas II abdicated, the domestic unrest would subside. Nicholas agreed and stepped down, ushering in a new government led by the Russian Duma (parliament) which became the Russian Provisional Government. This government was dominated by the interests of prominent capitalists, as well as the Russian nobility and aristocracy.
Replace Tsar Nicholas with Vladimir Putin and you have the next possible stage . Russian Revolution v3.0 (after the February and October ones were 1.0 and 2.0)

NutLoose 7th Apr 2022 11:55

SU35 shoot down, interesting looking design of bang seat, mind you it worked. extendable faceplate to protect for high speed ejections?



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....182c3eaaba.png


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9ef5efcf4a.png

Tartiflette Fan 7th Apr 2022 13:33


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11211670)
Just seen this from earlier, 2 days before the invasion, they might have thought they’re in a tank, but I think the train would win..
..

I know that tank-drivers have very limited vision, but there must have been enough visible to show that was a railway embankment and you would expect the commander to be informed so he could use his optics to check for rail traffic. Shows the depth of stupidity prevalent, or, alternatively the obediance when told simply " drive from A to B" as quickly as possible;

Brewster Buffalo 7th Apr 2022 13:36


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11211882)
Its heartening that NATO is now holding almost weekly conferences now to discuss military aid to Ukraine. From the reports I've seen the flow of aid of all types seems to be growing apace.
I think the decisive battle of the war is about to take place in the east. If Ukraine can hold out and counter effectively, then there's a distinct possibility of another Russian collapse. .....

I'm not so sure...the Russians appear to be concentrating their forces in the South and South East having failed in their initial "blitzkrieg" attempt. I think then next phase will be attritional where the Russians, with their greater strength, are likely to prevail. I don't think the Ukranians have the military strength to eject the Russian Army.

Tartiflette Fan 7th Apr 2022 13:45


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11211704)
Does anyone know if these are new-build Abrams? I was under the impression that production of new Abrams stopped several years ago - that the 'newer' Abrams were simply older Abrams that had been upgraded and refurbished to 'zero time'.

In other words, is the US Army reducing it's tank forces by 250?

I read due for delivery by 2025 which seems to indicate new-build to me, but I have no idea what production facilities may still exist.

Ninthace 7th Apr 2022 15:33


Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo (Post 11211964)
I'm not so sure...the Russians appear to be concentrating their forces in the South and South East having failed in their initial "blitzkrieg" attempt. I think then next phase will be attritional where the Russians, with their greater strength, are likely to prevail. I don't think the Ukranians have the military strength to eject the Russian Army.

It is no just numbers of men and quantity of kit though. There are a number of other factors but that would require a Staff College presentation.

What do folk think is Putin's centre of gravity in this campaign and can his forces be beaten despite him?

Whinging Tinny 7th Apr 2022 15:37


Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.
Since this whole Sh1t fest kicked off, this thread has been saturated by non aviation related material. If I want to read about grunts and tanks I'll look at relevant sites, or put it in Jet Blast and similar. Back on the topic please and the same goes for 'Black Pigs' whatever nationality they will become.

campbeex 7th Apr 2022 15:50


Originally Posted by Whinging Tinny (Post 11211998)
Since this whole Sh1t fest kicked off, this thread has been saturated by non aviation related material. If I want to read about grunts and tanks I'll look at relevant sites, or put it in Jet Blast and similar. Back on the topic please and the same goes for 'Black Pigs' whatever nationality they will become.

At least you're living up to the first part of your username.

dead_pan 7th Apr 2022 16:44

Do missiles count?? This report has been doing the rounds on social media today - is anyone aware if we even possess such a system?


MAINJAFAD 7th Apr 2022 17:11


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11212033)
Do missiles count?? This report has been doing the rounds on social media today - is anyone aware if we even possess such a system?

https://twitter.com/martinxo/status/...xtaKaP8mw&s=19

Maybe the RN has taken a Leaf out of the Argentina's book on how to jury rig a ship board system for land based use. Argies pulled that stunt on the RN with a land launched Exocet in 1982, Damaged a ship, Destroyed its helicopter and killed 13 sailors. I suspect targeting info will come from some NATO aircraft or Drone (unofficially and very covertly of course).

TEEEJ 7th Apr 2022 17:17

Putin's press secretary Peskov just admitted on Sky News that Russian troops have suffered significant losses in Ukraine. I wonder how long he will be around?


[email protected] 7th Apr 2022 17:34

'An act of goodwill' withdrawing from Kyiv regions - do they listen to themselves? I'm sure the residents of Bucha were overjoyed at the goodwill............

Harpoon on Type 23 Frigates and Type 45 Destroyers - not a new system.......

Beamr 7th Apr 2022 17:47

I found more interesting what Peskov said about the sanctions: "We've started to prepare ourselves for these sanctions a year ago."
In essence he admits they had decided of the attack at least a year ago.

I must wonder if he gets some whipping from Putler over his statements.

NutLoose 7th Apr 2022 17:59


At least 60 Russian paratroopers have reportedly staged a mutiny and refused to fight in Ukraine.

The ‘elite unit’ was from a key airbase in Pskov, northern Russia.

When they refused to fight the troops are understood to have been withdrawn to Belarus, from where they were then sent back to Pskov in disgrace.

Most of the unit has been fired, while others are facing criminal charges, the Pskovskaya Guberniya, an independent newspaper in Pskov has reported.

Those facing criminal charges will be subject to the Russian equivalent of a court-martial and will most likely be handed jail sentences.

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu is reported to have sent one of his deputies to Pskov to handle the insubordination.

Ukraine has claimed the 60 or so troops were elite paratroopers but this has not been independently verified.

The servicemen are however understood to have hailed from Pskov, a key base for one of Russia’s most elite airborne units.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/07/ukrai...ight-16421122/

NutLoose 7th Apr 2022 18:03

I do hope this turns out to be a disaster for the Russians if true…



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