Originally Posted by
Fliegenmong
With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?
Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbas enclaves would be suicidal.
Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbas would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier.
China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland.
It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China.