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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 2nd Oct 2022, 13:34
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
hmmm. how do you get a 70km missile to hit a target 250km away????
Rubik's cube is more difficult. Apollo 13 CO2 scrubbers was more demanding....
Doesn't the MGM-140 ATACMS have a range of 300km? Ukrane currently has the low range goods up to 80km.
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 13:42
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Up shit creek without a paddle comes to mind

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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 14:06
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Multiple angle perspective from Ukrainian POV of the recent tank battle in the vicinity of Yehorivka,.

A Ukrainian tank is destroyed by Russian tank fire, after which the multiple Russian armored vehicles retreat. During the process a Russian BMP3 is hit by a Ukrainian anti-tank crew.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 17:23
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 20:43
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War criminal strelkov and Rybar are reporting "claim Ukraine is pushing 4-5 mechanized and a "full" tank battalion into the push to exploit the breakthrough. Also claim the Russians are attempting to form a new defensive line at Dudchany)'
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 21:07
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
War criminal strelkov and Rybar are reporting "claim Ukraine is pushing 4-5 mechanized and a "full" tank battalion into the push to exploit the breakthrough. Also claim the Russians are attempting to form a new defensive line at Dudchany)'
Also here
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 21:59
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Putrid reminds me of the school bully when his victim finally fights back and kicks him in the crotch then beats him to the ground.
At first the bully screams “I’ll kill you” so the victim decides to render the SOB incapable of offensive action by dislocation of his shoulder, breaking his nose and delivering a swift kick to the kneecap. ( there are no rules in a real fight ) Then the bully starts crying “ I was only joking” and complains to the school authorities that he was viciously attacked for no reason.
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 22:29
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Old 2nd Oct 2022, 23:33
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A few days ago, I posted a list of items that newly mobilised Russian troops are being told they need to buy for themselves (including "optional" bulletproof vests and helmets). I commented: "The sellers are going to be gouging the buyers for every ruble they can get." Well:

With thanks to @JayinKyiv for posting it, here's a list of what newly mobilised Russian soldiers are reportedly being told to provide for themselves (they or their relatives have to buy this all of this - good luck when 300,000 others want it too).…

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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 05:01
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
With thanks to @JayinKyiv for posting it, here's a list of what newly mobilised Russian soldiers are reportedly being told to provide for themselves (they or their relatives have to buy this all of this - good luck when 300,000 others want it too).…
To lazy to google lens it, but apparently the top one is just carrier, bottom one is carrier and plates. Still shitty that you have buy your own stuff


I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 06:37
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...67002726301696
Lithgow-Thales meets the capabilities of Massey-Ferguson!

The Aussie MRAP is a substantial chunk of metal, reminiscent of a P-47, where the pilot could run around inside dodging flak.

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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 07:10
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small
The reason is that the whole design concept is different. When the soviet era vehicles were designed the main deal was to make the cross section on everything as small as possible to decrease the targeting area, i.e. make it as low as possible to make it more difficult to be hit by the opponent. Therefore eg T64-T90 MBT's have the automated loader to remove the need for a loader (only 3 crew making required space smaller) and the carousel underneath the turret that causes such spectacular turret tossing performances. The same applies to IFV's, they were made very low compared to their western counterparts.
If a T72 and a Leo2 are side-by-side, standing on LEO you really are looking down to the T72. Same applies to that BTR-80 compared to eg Finnish PASI.

In todays battle field with modern top attacking ATGMs the soviet design philosophy has lost its relevance as the top is so vulnerable in all of those vehicles. If you like, the russian forces have a huge amount of vehicles but all of them are of obsolete design. They do move in different directions and go bang, killing civilians very effectively, but have a hard time when opposed by modern weapons. A bit like the Mosin-Nagant.

Things are going to get even more difficult for russkies, we are probably going to be in the situation in the very near future where the mech BTG's don't have modern sights and radios are of a vintage 70's type as the Russians have no means to modernize the vehicles they take out of storage. They've been there since the Soviet collapse, being cannibalised and parts being even sold to make a few rubles. While they should've modernized those 12000 MBT's they drank a lot of vodka on private yachts in the Mediterranean. The renewal capacity of Russia on MBT's pre-war was estimated at 100-200 units annually but now they don't have the parts, the men or the time to modernize anything. They didn't do it properly and all the modernized kit was already delivered to BTG's for training purposes. Those were the ones sent to Ukraine 24th Feb and have been very much annihilated in the war already. Where does this lead to?The upcoming mobiks don't have sufficient (or any, apparently) training and the vehicles they get really are from the 70s including comms, sights etc.... I'd hate to be a Russian mobik. No wonder those guys are running for the border and jumping on each others ankles.

At the same time Ukraine did modernize their T64's very extensively throughout the last 30 years. It still has the main issue with the autoloader, but they have brought just about everything else to the 21st century. A direct hit makes it a toaster but otherwise those are much more capable and especially much more joint operation capable than their Russian counterparts.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 08:49
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First Ukrainian units have reached Chkalove. If they break those lines they can roam behind the main defense lines in the North and disrupt the Russian positions in Davydiv Brid and the newly established defensive at Dudchany.



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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 10:04
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
First Ukrainian units have reached Chkalove. If they break those lines they can roam behind the main defense lines in the North and disrupt the Russian positions in Davydiv Brid and the newly established defensive at Dudchany.
Not sure, but it appears that the drive towards Chkalove is pushing against the 11th Separate [air] Assault Brigade, from the VDV. If that is the case, they may get some good repossession of Ukrainian territory. The 11th reportedly lost their deputy Lt Col Glebov, on 7 Mar @ Kharkiv, (probably misreported... their CO since 2020 has been Colonel Denis Nikolayevich Shishov) but their HQ was hit. By July they had lost half of their establishment according to Russian sources, 18 July, 78 of the force refused to fight. reportedly 8 of the refuzniks were split up and sent off to other sections, and came back wanting to go out with machine guns on their motorcycles (more voltage, Igor? Good CRM Skipper!). On 26 July, their HQ was hit by Ukraine. Again. Just outside of Kharkiv. Again.

So they are a fine force of well trained, rested, supplied, motivated, heros of the soviet union, bunch, or not.

On aviation themes, as part of the VDV, their parachutes will help keep them warm in winter, (warmer than the new recruits on the ground outside of VDV bases in Omsk and the subtropical paradise of Norilsk etc. (sub-arctic? 300km north of the arctic circle?-1C at the start of October... ). These troops should be in fine form. Portends a lot of A&E visits with broken ankles.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 10:19
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Those Russians in the line between the two incursions must be getting twitchy at the thought of those Ukrainian forces rampaging along their flanks - there are rumours on Twitter of a wider collapse in this area and also to the east of Lyman, both as yet unconfirmed. It does make one wonder if Russia is capable of defending in depth, and manouevring against the Ukes.

I wonder, did Putin really think his declaration on Friday would mean "mission accomplished"? As the adage goes, your opponent always has a say in proceedings.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 10:44
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Developing!

I was reading this morning that civilians were leaving Lysychansk this morning. Now, it is starting to make sense. Ukrainian forces have broken Russian lines at the administrative border to Luhansk and are close to the city perimeter.



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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 10:48
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Putin's spox admits the Kremlin doesn't actually know how much of Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions it is annexing as Ukraine's forces continue to win back new "Russian" territory. Dmitry Peskov says Russia will "continue to consult with the population."

Russia: these are the new borders of the state, any attack on them will be treated as attack on sovereign Russia

Also Russia: we don't actually know what our new borders now are…..
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 11:44
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Putin's spox admits the Kremlin doesn't actually know how much of Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions it is annexing as Ukraine's forces continue to win back new "Russian" territory. Dmitry Peskov says Russia will "continue to consult with the population."

Russia: these are the new borders of the state, any attack on them will be treated as attack on sovereign Russia

Also Russia: we don't actually know what our new borders now are…..
The Russians border is a few miles to the west of Rostov on Don... and east of the Sea of Azov. everything else is Ukrainian
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 12:01
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The boot is on the other foot now, after Russia is pushed out of the occupied territories, they can spout about Ukraine being the occupiers. However, I don't think they will get any sympathy except from a few other paranoid dictators.

IG


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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 15:54
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Belarusian guest thought that he was sitting at the table with his peers and was awfully surprised to find out that he was merely one of the items on the menu….



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