Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Turns out the Polish-S. Korean weapons deal is much larger than thought.

The spokesperson of the Polish Armaments Agency @krzysztof_atek confirmed today that Poland is buying:

1000 K2PL MBTs
672 K9 self-propelled howitzers
Up to 1400 Borsuk IFVs
48 FA50 fighter jets

That should take the Koreans at least a week to churn out... The production capability of South Korea is something to behold.
1999, they were filling in the land between 2 islands. 2000, the new airport was shaping up. start of 2001, major airport up and running, new superhighway to the airport, new rail line, new city, well, 2. When South Koreans are asked to do something it gets done. (Most of the time they do it pretty well)

[Usertim]

Interesting cloak and dagger story about Ukraine attempts to persuade RuAF pilots to defect with their aircraft.

Twitter

[The Helpful Stacker]

Originally Posted by Usertim

Interesting cloak and dagger story about Ukraine attempts to persuade RuAF pilots to defect with their aircraft.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...35542180929536

It's far, far more than that.

FSB being 'played' by Ukrainian intelligence services, but the FSB being none the wiser.

It appears fears with regards to the competency of the KGB...err...FSB, were just as unfounded as those of the Russian military.

Is there any part of the Russian state that isn't proving to be an absolute sham as a consequence of Putin's idiotic decisions?

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by fdr

it gets done. (Most of the time they do it pretty well)

Notwithstanding the Chinese and decommissioned, Which country has the 3 out of 5 world's most potent, man-made power sources available? Occupying the 1st, 2nd and 4th place?

Miniscule carbon emissions, and stable delivery, propel the whole economy forward. You name it: steel mills, IT, electronics, car and aeroplane manufacturing. Did someone say Asia's most posh revered cosmetics brands too?

That is what survival fears bring to the population. Shall we see the same for the UKR 30 years from now.

Here's another one, per reactor power. Apologies for the graphics, updated manually (did someone say russian gas and oil dependency? Or GazProm (=FSB) payin the Green parties and foot shooters for decades? hope not)

[NutLoose]

[T28B]

I have moved some of the economics/politics stuff over to JB.
Carry on.
T28B

[NutLoose]

It's all ramping up, it's almost as if the West can now see a winning endplay in sight, Ukraine now to be supplied with Anti Radar Missiles.

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[NutLoose]

WTF was that??????

Twitter

[Tartiflette Fan]

"WTF was that??????"

If that was a Ukrainian weapon, it would seem huge overkill to use it/them to blow up ramshackle collection of sheds.

[NutLoose]

Do you think it might have been an ammonium nitrate store as there is some orange smoke? Early views show a white substance in the building.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Do you think it might have been an ammonium nitrate store as there is some orange smoke? Early views show a white substance in the building.

+
Possible I suppose, however that large crater shown is both deep and has sharply delineated sides, as I would expect from a falling projectile: think fertiliser would be shallow and wide. That apart, though, why would someone be monitoring it, if just an innocent fertiliser store ?

EDIT: Looking again, that crater is, imo, about where that pile of white sacks were stacked, so that speaks for your premise, but I still don't understand why someone would want to blow it up.

[ORAC]

I’m wondering if some booby trapped the site before retreating with a mine under the fertiliser and just waited for the right moment to detonate it….

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I’m wondering if some booby trapped the site before retreating with a mine under the fertiliser and just waited for the right moment to detonate it….

The video appears to have been edited, hard to say, but the booby trap idea seems likely.

[tdracer]

250 new built M1A2SEPv3

OK, I'm confused. I though new production of M1 Abrams tanks had ended decades ago - the 'production line' had been repurposed into an overhaul facility.
Do we really still have the capability for "new built' Abrams?

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

The video appears to have been edited, hard to say, but the booby trap idea seems likely.

Might be informative to know who/ how the footage was taken: somebody was waiting for a little explosion.

[ORAC]

tdracer,

It would appear the line is also doing new builds as well as upgrades….

https://www.army-technology.com/proj...n-battle-tank/

Abrams M1A2 SEPV3 (System Enhanced Package) is a modernised configuration of the Abrams main battle tank (MBT) in service with the US Army. The new version offers enhanced protection and survivability, as well as higher lethality than its predecessors.

The tank also features various advancements in technology, including improved armour, communications, reliability, sustainment and fuel efficiency.

Abrams M1A2 SEPV3 orders and deliveries

The US Army TACOM Lifecycle Management Command placed an order worth $92.2m with General Dynamics Land Systems to upgrade its M1A2 SEPV2 Abrams tanks to the M1A2 SEPV3 configuration in December 2015. The first Abrams M1A2 SEPV3 initial production vehicle was delivered to the US Army in October 2017.

General Dynamics Land Systems also received a $270m contract from the US Army Tank Automotive Command to manufacture 45 Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, in October 2017.…..

https://www.defensedaily.com/army-aw...uncategorized/

…The second award was a $270 million contract from the Army Tank Automotive Command to produce 45 Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks.

The first pilot vehicles, which feature technological advancements in communications, reliability, sustainment and fuel efficiency, and upgraded armor, are expected to roll off the production line in fall 2017. Work will be performed in Lima, Scranton, Tallahassee and Anniston, Ala.

https://taskandpurpose.com/military-...1a2c-contract/


The Defense Department announced on Friday that the Army has awarded a monster $4.62 billion contract to defense giant General Dynamics Land Systems to produce M1A2 SEPv3 tanks for the service over the next eight years.

The announcement did not specify exactly how many fresh Abrams tanks the service plans on procuring under the contract, although it does stipulate that work locations and funding "will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of June 17, 2028."

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by tdracer

OK, I'm confused. I though new production of M1 Abrams tanks had ended decades ago - the 'production line' had been repurposed into an overhaul facility.
Do we really still have the capability for "new built' Abrams?

As recently as 2019 there were export contracts for places like Taiwan, so maybe the US Army doesn't need any new production, but some of the foreign customers do. I'll do some more digging.

GDL won a $2.6bn contract from the US Army to upgrade up to 786 M1A1 Abrams to the newly configured M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 3, in December 2017. The US Government approved a potential sale of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks and other equipment to Taiwan in July 2019.

I don't know if those were new builds or a sale of already built but older tanks that would get an upgrade to the M1A2T configuration.

Sorry, looks like ORAC and I were doing the same thing at the same time.
To an A-10 pilot, though, they all look alike: targets.

[ORAC]

Gazprom to reduce gas flow through Nord Stream to 20%, blames turbine issue.

Russian state-owned Gazprom said gas exports to Germany would drop to about a fifth of the pipe’s capacity starting July 27.

[NutLoose]

I’m confused, Ukraine missile attacks the sh*t out of one of your supply route bridges, hence have the coordinates laid in, so why the f**k would you assemble a pontoon bridge next to it where every Ukrainian and his dog could see and film its location and upload it. Are they really that stupid?

Twitter

I notice a lot of armour movements heading towards Kherson, do you think they are waiting till they arrive before dropping the bridges thus preventing their crossing, then demolishing the tracks and roads behind them? Thus turning them into trapped prime targets?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I’m confused, Ukraine missile attacks the sh*t out of one of your supply route bridges, hence have the coordinates laid in, so why the f**k would you assemble a pontoon bridge next to it where every Ukrainian and his dog could see and film its location and upload it. Are they really that stupid?

Since I'm guessing that there must be dozens of systems ( drones, NATO surveillance aircraft ) that can pinpoint the bridges anyway, what difference does it make ? I would also guess that the bridge was built in the most favourable location, so that may also work for the pontoon, but it is at least certain that it is going to ease the traffic returning as quickly as possible to a large, well-maintained road.