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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 18th Nov 2021, 19:41
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Coincidentally, Poland is willing to increase their military budget.

breakingdefense.com/2021/11/poland-pledges-major-new-defense-spending-is-it-real-or-political-hype
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Old 18th Nov 2021, 19:51
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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NATO will make life harder for Russia. That's for sure. They've asked for it.
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Old 18th Nov 2021, 20:02
  #223 (permalink)  
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Old 21st Nov 2021, 18:28
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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Lived Ukraine, Odessa and Nikolaev for a few years (2008-2010) can say with certainty that if the Russians invade, there will be country wide civil war, and it will flare up immediately and be more costly than the invasion itself.

The antipathy between Ukrainians and ethnic Russians is palpable, resulting for instance in the Odessa fires a few years back or so, viewing the YT videos of young Ukrainian women throwing petrol bombs into a building with holed up folk was eye opening even to me (and living in Eastern Europe/Russia for two decades I've seen a bit).

Many of my Ukrainian friends, civilised professional folk, had some deep seated hatred lurking in their brains that spilt out on occasion and it wasn't pretty. The Russians invading will snap some of them instantly into ugly people with some nasty intents.

Not a military genius but expect Transnistria will play some role in this as some sort of Russian flank.

Genuinely hope this rumour has no foundation.
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Old 22nd Nov 2021, 00:21
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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I’d have thought it would turn rapidly to dog poo, the west cannot really back down and would honour its commitments to the Ukraine, because if they do not it will send signals to Russia it could act carte blanche as it did in The Crimea and Georgia.

One gets the feeling this is Putin’s one chance, the country has grown rich and turned itself around from bankruptcy using those riches from his gas reserves to modernise his military, threatening to put the squeeze on the wests energy supplies is once only threat, as the west once bitten will shift away from reliance on his gas reserves and become more independent resulting in a reduction in his countries earning potential.
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Old 22nd Nov 2021, 06:57
  #226 (permalink)  
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Old 22nd Nov 2021, 21:57
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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If the price of natural gas goes up in response to all of this, I think a few folks with capped wells in the Eagleford Shale region may get back into the game.
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Old 23rd Nov 2021, 09:13
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Looks like Bosnia might beat them to it. http://www.politico.eu/article/dayto...milorad-dodik/
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Old 24th Nov 2021, 18:56
  #229 (permalink)  
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ise-kyiv-will/

Russia will attack Ukraine if it joins Nato, warns Kremlin adviser

Russia will attack Ukraine unless Nato gives cast-iron guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join the alliance, a Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert has said.

The suggestion by Fyodor Lukyanov is the clearest explanation yet as to why Russia has been amassing troops near the Ukrainian border, leading to a rise in East-West tensions and fears of an imminent invasion.

Mr Lukyanov - chairman of the board of the Russian Foreign Affairs Council, which advises the Kremlin - made it clear in an article published on Wednesday that Moscow would be seeking more than just verbal reassurances from Nato.

“This recent round of escalation in Eastern Europe showed that the old principles of security on the continent are no longer working,” he wrote. He warned of a “new conflict” if Nato expanded further east.

“Russia will have to change the system and draw new ‘red lines,” he said, mentioning a post-war deal between the Soviet Union and Finland, under which Moscow recognised Finland’s independence in return for Helsinki’s neutrality in the Cold War.

He added that the “gambit that led to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia”, when Moscow invaded after claiming to have been provoked, “could well be replicated” in Ukraine.……


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Old 24th Nov 2021, 22:19
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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The EU military would be challenged in a conflict. It will be interesting to see how many are fence sitters.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 11:46
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People in East Ukraine are busy applying for and receiving Russian passports. It is a controlled process which can take several months, but it is happening. Only a matter of time before the majority are Russian citizens.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 12:01
  #232 (permalink)  
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Which, even if true, would not give Russia any rights too, or in, the territory.

The same reasoning used by Germany for invading the Sudetenland in 1938 - and equally an excuse which could be used to reoccupy the Baltic States….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...Czechoslovakia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia..._Baltic_states
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 12:06
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 13:02
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That strategy has not worked with China - money talks..

IG
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:35
  #235 (permalink)  
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Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
Main export is gas and they’ve been throttling back supplies during the summer so that the reserves in most European countries are below 50% with winter approaching - the strategy being that their customers need gas and won’t be able to impose sanctions….
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:43
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Main export is gas and they’ve been throttling back supplies during the summer so that the reserves in most European countries are below 50% with winter approaching - the strategy being that their customers need gas and won’t be able to impose sanctions….
So to put it bluntly:
We would rather consider directly going to 3rd Worldwar before seriously thinking about sanctions?!
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:47
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Originally Posted by henra View Post
So to put it bluntly:
We would rather consider directly going to 3rd Worldwar before seriously thinking about sanctions?!
i've seen some jumps to conclusions but this really hits the top three of all time.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:50
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Might be good for the UK and Norway to be in even higher demand with oil and gas? Maybe it is too early to abandon coal just now?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:53
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by golder View Post
The EU military would be challenged in a conflict. It will be interesting to see how many are fence sitters.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
How would such a war work without leading to WW3 and total elimination of all human life?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:54
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
i've seen some jumps to conclusions but this really hits the top three of all time.
So what would be the strategy?
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