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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Nov 2021, 17:56
  #221 (permalink)  
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ise-kyiv-will/

Russia will attack Ukraine if it joins Nato, warns Kremlin adviser

Russia will attack Ukraine unless Nato gives cast-iron guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join the alliance, a Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert has said.

The suggestion by Fyodor Lukyanov is the clearest explanation yet as to why Russia has been amassing troops near the Ukrainian border, leading to a rise in East-West tensions and fears of an imminent invasion.

Mr Lukyanov - chairman of the board of the Russian Foreign Affairs Council, which advises the Kremlin - made it clear in an article published on Wednesday that Moscow would be seeking more than just verbal reassurances from Nato.

“This recent round of escalation in Eastern Europe showed that the old principles of security on the continent are no longer working,” he wrote. He warned of a “new conflict” if Nato expanded further east.

“Russia will have to change the system and draw new ‘red lines,” he said, mentioning a post-war deal between the Soviet Union and Finland, under which Moscow recognised Finland’s independence in return for Helsinki’s neutrality in the Cold War.

He added that the “gambit that led to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia”, when Moscow invaded after claiming to have been provoked, “could well be replicated” in Ukraine.……


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Old 24th Nov 2021, 21:19
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The EU military would be challenged in a conflict. It will be interesting to see how many are fence sitters.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 10:46
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People in East Ukraine are busy applying for and receiving Russian passports. It is a controlled process which can take several months, but it is happening. Only a matter of time before the majority are Russian citizens.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 11:01
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Which, even if true, would not give Russia any rights too, or in, the territory.

The same reasoning used by Germany for invading the Sudetenland in 1938 - and equally an excuse which could be used to reoccupy the Baltic States….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...Czechoslovakia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia..._Baltic_states
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 11:06
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Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 12:02
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That strategy has not worked with China - money talks..

IG
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 13:35
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Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
Main export is gas and they’ve been throttling back supplies during the summer so that the reserves in most European countries are below 50% with winter approaching - the strategy being that their customers need gas and won’t be able to impose sanctions….
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:43
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Main export is gas and they’ve been throttling back supplies during the summer so that the reserves in most European countries are below 50% with winter approaching - the strategy being that their customers need gas and won’t be able to impose sanctions….
So to put it bluntly:
We would rather consider directly going to 3rd Worldwar before seriously thinking about sanctions?!
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:47
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Originally Posted by henra
So to put it bluntly:
We would rather consider directly going to 3rd Worldwar before seriously thinking about sanctions?!
i've seen some jumps to conclusions but this really hits the top three of all time.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:50
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Might be good for the UK and Norway to be in even higher demand with oil and gas? Maybe it is too early to abandon coal just now?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:53
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Originally Posted by golder
The EU military would be challenged in a conflict. It will be interesting to see how many are fence sitters.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
How would such a war work without leading to WW3 and total elimination of all human life?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:54
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Originally Posted by Beamr
i've seen some jumps to conclusions but this really hits the top three of all time.
So what would be the strategy?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 14:57
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The cold war ended well after tens of years of tensions like this. No need for desperation but more need for credible military power and strategy in the West. The US and the EU need to stand together instead of going separate. This is why some EU army totally doesn't make sense from my point of view.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:12
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Originally Posted by henra
So what would be the strategy?
so you are saying that if sanctions can't be placed due to gas availability everyone will start throwing missiles at each other? Quite a knee jerk I'd say. That would definately lead to shortage on multitude of goods, so thinking it through a shortage on gas is quite irrelevant if those are the options.
To be more precise: I believe that sanctions are gazillion times more probable than WW3.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 15:28
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
The cold war ended well after tens of years of tensions like this. No need for desperation but more need for credible military power and strategy in the West. The US and the EU need to stand together instead of going separate. This is why some EU army totally doesn't make sense from my point of view.
A Euro army is the way forward. There’s a perception in the US that the European members of NATO aren’t pulling their weight, rather living comfortably with the US doing the heavy lifting. There will come a day when serious conversations will be had on this side of the pond towards scaling back or even leaving NATO. Europe will need to be ready for that day.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 16:46
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Originally Posted by Beamr
so you are saying that if sanctions can't be placed due to gas availability everyone will start throwing missiles at each other? Quite a knee jerk I'd say.
No. The opposite. I was criticising that we are looking into how to fight against Russia when we are even not ready to go for relevant sanctions.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 16:50
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Originally Posted by henra
No. The opposite. I was criticising that we are looking into how to fight against Russia when we are even not ready to go for relevant sanctions.
ah, yes, my mistake to misinterpret.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 17:12
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There’s a perception in the US that the European members of NATO aren’t pulling their weight, rather living comfortably with the US doing the heavy lifting.
That is more a problem of perception. A lot is done quietly from development and integration of former eastern bloc economies to developing country's aid and such. Maybe not as sexy but certainly a considerable European share already happening. It goes up to german funding US military installations in Germany like the new Landstuhl military hospital.
If NATO's east is now under fire we need to cooperate more than ever.

Time to face the realities. The Cold War is back. The US pivot to Asia contributed to this mess.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 18:00
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Originally Posted by West Coast
There will come a day when serious conversations will be had on this side of the pond towards scaling back or even leaving NATO. Europe will need to be ready for that day.
And that would alleviate the US Military Budget exactly in which way? Apart from losing influence in Europe.
For Europe to replace US deterrence only a massive ramp up of Submarine based Nuclear strike capability would do the job. Everything else won't help much if there is such a big imbalance wrt to the ultimate stick. Conventionally, Russia has the Military potential to invade the Baltics and maybe Ukraine. But that's it. Anything beyond that would end with them having to go Nuclear.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 18:26
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
That is more a problem of perception. A lot is done quietly from development and integration of former eastern bloc economies to developing country's aid and such. Maybe not as sexy but certainly a considerable European share already happening. It goes up to german funding US military installations in Germany like the new Landstuhl military hospital.
If NATO's east is now under fire we need to cooperate more than ever.

Time to face the realities. The Cold War is back. The US pivot to Asia contributed to this mess.
German’s funding infrastructure in Germany to live under the umbrella the US provides seems pretty light. Many NATO members aren’t living up to their fair share, not me saying it, numerous US presidents of differing stripes are.

Perception is critical as it often intersects reality. In the case of Germany, an underfunded military, a nation that’s allowed itself to become dependent on its likely opponent, Russia for energy and now potentially pushing away a nuclear role in its own defense. This isn’t lost on this side.

The European members of NATO (or better yet, a Euro army) should be able to contain Russia, why seemingly can’t they?

As to the pivot, you’re correct the Cold War is back. Thing is, Europe has one front, the US has two.
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