Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ise-kyiv-will/
Russia will attack Ukraine if it joins Nato, warns Kremlin adviser
Russia will attack Ukraine unless Nato gives cast-iron guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join the alliance, a Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert has said.
The suggestion by Fyodor Lukyanov is the clearest explanation yet as to why Russia has been amassing troops near the Ukrainian border, leading to a rise in East-West tensions and fears of an imminent invasion.
Mr Lukyanov - chairman of the board of the Russian Foreign Affairs Council, which advises the Kremlin - made it clear in an article published on Wednesday that Moscow would be seeking more than just verbal reassurances from Nato.
“This recent round of escalation in Eastern Europe showed that the old principles of security on the continent are no longer working,” he wrote. He warned of a “new conflict” if Nato expanded further east.
“Russia will have to change the system and draw new ‘red lines,” he said, mentioning a post-war deal between the Soviet Union and Finland, under which Moscow recognised Finland’s independence in return for Helsinki’s neutrality in the Cold War.
He added that the “gambit that led to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia”, when Moscow invaded after claiming to have been provoked, “could well be replicated” in Ukraine.……
Russia will attack Ukraine if it joins Nato, warns Kremlin adviser
Russia will attack Ukraine unless Nato gives cast-iron guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join the alliance, a Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert has said.
The suggestion by Fyodor Lukyanov is the clearest explanation yet as to why Russia has been amassing troops near the Ukrainian border, leading to a rise in East-West tensions and fears of an imminent invasion.
Mr Lukyanov - chairman of the board of the Russian Foreign Affairs Council, which advises the Kremlin - made it clear in an article published on Wednesday that Moscow would be seeking more than just verbal reassurances from Nato.
“This recent round of escalation in Eastern Europe showed that the old principles of security on the continent are no longer working,” he wrote. He warned of a “new conflict” if Nato expanded further east.
“Russia will have to change the system and draw new ‘red lines,” he said, mentioning a post-war deal between the Soviet Union and Finland, under which Moscow recognised Finland’s independence in return for Helsinki’s neutrality in the Cold War.
He added that the “gambit that led to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia”, when Moscow invaded after claiming to have been provoked, “could well be replicated” in Ukraine.……
The EU military would be challenged in a conflict. It will be interesting to see how many are fence sitters.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
All Russian bluster? Or will Russia will wait till China is ready to invade Taiwan. A two front war will be harder for the US.
People in East Ukraine are busy applying for and receiving Russian passports. It is a controlled process which can take several months, but it is happening. Only a matter of time before the majority are Russian citizens.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Which, even if true, would not give Russia any rights too, or in, the territory.
The same reasoning used by Germany for invading the Sudetenland in 1938 - and equally an excuse which could be used to reoccupy the Baltic States….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...Czechoslovakia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia..._Baltic_states
The same reasoning used by Germany for invading the Sudetenland in 1938 - and equally an excuse which could be used to reoccupy the Baltic States….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...Czechoslovakia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia..._Baltic_states
Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Doesn't Russia need the hard currency income from selling huge quantities of raw materials to the West? Wouldn't this all be terminated then, starting with not opening the new north stream 2 pipeline? What income would Russia be left with?
We would rather consider directly going to 3rd Worldwar before seriously thinking about sanctions?!
Might be good for the UK and Norway to be in even higher demand with oil and gas? Maybe it is too early to abandon coal just now?
How would such a war work without leading to WW3 and total elimination of all human life?
The cold war ended well after tens of years of tensions like this. No need for desperation but more need for credible military power and strategy in the West. The US and the EU need to stand together instead of going separate. This is why some EU army totally doesn't make sense from my point of view.
so you are saying that if sanctions can't be placed due to gas availability everyone will start throwing missiles at each other? Quite a knee jerk I'd say. That would definately lead to shortage on multitude of goods, so thinking it through a shortage on gas is quite irrelevant if those are the options.
To be more precise: I believe that sanctions are gazillion times more probable than WW3.
To be more precise: I believe that sanctions are gazillion times more probable than WW3.
The cold war ended well after tens of years of tensions like this. No need for desperation but more need for credible military power and strategy in the West. The US and the EU need to stand together instead of going separate. This is why some EU army totally doesn't make sense from my point of view.
No. The opposite. I was criticising that we are looking into how to fight against Russia when we are even not ready to go for relevant sanctions.
There’s a perception in the US that the European members of NATO aren’t pulling their weight, rather living comfortably with the US doing the heavy lifting.
If NATO's east is now under fire we need to cooperate more than ever.
Time to face the realities. The Cold War is back. The US pivot to Asia contributed to this mess.
For Europe to replace US deterrence only a massive ramp up of Submarine based Nuclear strike capability would do the job. Everything else won't help much if there is such a big imbalance wrt to the ultimate stick. Conventionally, Russia has the Military potential to invade the Baltics and maybe Ukraine. But that's it. Anything beyond that would end with them having to go Nuclear.
That is more a problem of perception. A lot is done quietly from development and integration of former eastern bloc economies to developing country's aid and such. Maybe not as sexy but certainly a considerable European share already happening. It goes up to german funding US military installations in Germany like the new Landstuhl military hospital.
If NATO's east is now under fire we need to cooperate more than ever.
Time to face the realities. The Cold War is back. The US pivot to Asia contributed to this mess.
If NATO's east is now under fire we need to cooperate more than ever.
Time to face the realities. The Cold War is back. The US pivot to Asia contributed to this mess.
Perception is critical as it often intersects reality. In the case of Germany, an underfunded military, a nation that’s allowed itself to become dependent on its likely opponent, Russia for energy and now potentially pushing away a nuclear role in its own defense. This isn’t lost on this side.
The European members of NATO (or better yet, a Euro army) should be able to contain Russia, why seemingly can’t they?
As to the pivot, you’re correct the Cold War is back. Thing is, Europe has one front, the US has two.