Ukraine Crisis 2014
The UN is based on the principle of self-determination. The vast proportion of the World's current borders were not drawn on that principle, but on a whole bunch of highly dubious expediencies such as naked self-interest by dictators/aristocracy, defendable geographic features or administratively convenient straight lines.
The next century is going to be very messy. There will be '**** like this' happening every year. I expect there will be a lot of ethnic or religious 'cleansing', most of it self-conducted by minorities moving to safety.
The current crop of short-termist political animals running the West are very poorly equipped to deal with this, especially since their primary concern, as they are their paymasters, is big business.
We need a long view, and some kind of process for regions to determine their own government which is not necessarily connected to current borders. If a peaceful way to do this cannot be found, then the Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, CAR and half a hundred other places will keep descending into/remain in very nasty conflicts for which the term 'civil war' is too clean-cut.
Furthermore, any attempt to take in even 10% of the refugees will bankrupt the western democracies - there will simply be far too many refugees.
The next century is going to be very messy. There will be '**** like this' happening every year. I expect there will be a lot of ethnic or religious 'cleansing', most of it self-conducted by minorities moving to safety.
The current crop of short-termist political animals running the West are very poorly equipped to deal with this, especially since their primary concern, as they are their paymasters, is big business.
We need a long view, and some kind of process for regions to determine their own government which is not necessarily connected to current borders. If a peaceful way to do this cannot be found, then the Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, CAR and half a hundred other places will keep descending into/remain in very nasty conflicts for which the term 'civil war' is too clean-cut.
Furthermore, any attempt to take in even 10% of the refugees will bankrupt the western democracies - there will simply be far too many refugees.
I would argue that the UN was about restoration of status quo ante and Big Power politics (hence the Permanent 5 Veto). De-colonising (and with in Self Determination) became a la mode with US support in the 1950s onwards (principally through the indebtedness of UK to the US); of course de-colonising became a proxy Cold War front line and it became the darling of the Left as an opportunity to lambast Capitalism and Colonialism, missing the bitter irony of the Soviet occupied states in Central and Eastern Europe.
I remember attending a Short University Course in about 1995, where one of the lecturers (Phillip Towle, if my memory serves me right) talked of the potential 'Balkanising' of Britain, reflecting what was happening in former Yugoslavia. Most of us scoffed and thought it unlikely; however, since then there has been power-sharing in Northern Ireland, devolution in Scotland and Wales, and the potential breakup of the Union later this year if Scotland votes for independence. None of this, I might add, has or will involve the UN.
The difference in Ukraine is that a sovereign state appears now to be under re-occupation of its former ruler, under the guise of protecting ethnic Russians. This has been long-planned with evidence in Ukraine and the Baltic states including issuing Russian Passports FOC to ethnic Russians, to justify intervention. As I pointed out above. Where else will Putin decide to expand the Tsarist Empire? Karelia? Outwith of Kaliningrad? Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia (on the shoddy basis that they were once part of Russia and roughly 1/3 of populations are Russian speaking?) Retake Georgia? Poland?
Based on my (limited knowledge) of Russia, and in particular Moscow, Putin and his silivoki cohort suffer from a massive inferiority complex. 'They' want to be regarded as Europeans but steadfastly neglect to behave like us. Litvinyenko anybody? Poisoning someone in such a public way, in a hotel opposite the US Embassy in Grosvenor Square, was nothing short of state-sponsored terror. Putin and his gang, like most Russian rulers before him, are nothing more than bullies, but they strengthen from the lack of real reaction from the international community. Without a doubt, there is now a power vacuum in western Ukraine and unless 'we' do something, Putin and his thugs will fill that, too. Who thinks that he'll stop once he's got the Crimea peninsula?
I remember attending a Short University Course in about 1995, where one of the lecturers (Phillip Towle, if my memory serves me right) talked of the potential 'Balkanising' of Britain, reflecting what was happening in former Yugoslavia. Most of us scoffed and thought it unlikely; however, since then there has been power-sharing in Northern Ireland, devolution in Scotland and Wales, and the potential breakup of the Union later this year if Scotland votes for independence. None of this, I might add, has or will involve the UN.
The difference in Ukraine is that a sovereign state appears now to be under re-occupation of its former ruler, under the guise of protecting ethnic Russians. This has been long-planned with evidence in Ukraine and the Baltic states including issuing Russian Passports FOC to ethnic Russians, to justify intervention. As I pointed out above. Where else will Putin decide to expand the Tsarist Empire? Karelia? Outwith of Kaliningrad? Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia (on the shoddy basis that they were once part of Russia and roughly 1/3 of populations are Russian speaking?) Retake Georgia? Poland?
Based on my (limited knowledge) of Russia, and in particular Moscow, Putin and his silivoki cohort suffer from a massive inferiority complex. 'They' want to be regarded as Europeans but steadfastly neglect to behave like us. Litvinyenko anybody? Poisoning someone in such a public way, in a hotel opposite the US Embassy in Grosvenor Square, was nothing short of state-sponsored terror. Putin and his gang, like most Russian rulers before him, are nothing more than bullies, but they strengthen from the lack of real reaction from the international community. Without a doubt, there is now a power vacuum in western Ukraine and unless 'we' do something, Putin and his thugs will fill that, too. Who thinks that he'll stop once he's got the Crimea peninsula?
As for the legitimacy of the ousted a President, well it was their Parliament that voted him out, not the protestors, and they represent the electorate.
Has the law been tested in court ?
Does it correspond to the Ukranian Constitution ?
Nobody has checked a single piece of this only MOB rule is ok because the West likes the result.
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The south-eastern ~40% of Ukraine is majority ethnic Russian, and has been closely associated with Russia for centuries (remember, Crimea used to be part of Russia until Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in 1954).
This part wants close ties with Russia.
The north-western ~60% of Ukraine is majority ethnic-pole & other, and used to be part of Poland or Romania as recently as the early 1800s (some parts until after WW1).
This part wants close ties with EU.
This is another case of an artificially-formed "nation" that is fundamentally two different countries, with two different peoples and desires, which should be allowed to split!
Anything else will result in either a full-scale long-term occupation by Russia or a continuation of the last year's discord for a very long time.
See my post #158 in this thread for more historical info and maps.
This part wants close ties with Russia.
The north-western ~60% of Ukraine is majority ethnic-pole & other, and used to be part of Poland or Romania as recently as the early 1800s (some parts until after WW1).
This part wants close ties with EU.
This is another case of an artificially-formed "nation" that is fundamentally two different countries, with two different peoples and desires, which should be allowed to split!
Anything else will result in either a full-scale long-term occupation by Russia or a continuation of the last year's discord for a very long time.
See my post #158 in this thread for more historical info and maps.
I would argue that the UN was about restoration of status quo ante and Big Power politics (hence the Permanent 5 Veto).
The advocacy of lets give into Mod rule because we like the result means that if a Million Spanish gathering regarding Unemployment in Madrid and storm Govt buildings and demand a new govt then we should recognise.
Once you give into Mob rule then what next ?
Russia has done nothing wrong in relation to Ukraine, it is allowed move its military equipment around, move personnel in and out of the country.
The claim that some group of people armed or otherwise have gone to the airport or other places is actually not much different that a thousand people gathering in middle of Kiev.
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To be honest if Russia wanted to take back the entire eastern block I would not that worried, it was theirs before, it can be again if they want it! It would cost them a great deal of money though! Currently the eastern block costs us a great deal of money!
If the Russians really started moving in a big way then we in the west would have to rebuild our forces in a big way, but while its just eastern block nations which were once under their control, I would not get involved. The risk of some kind of nuclear conflict is just to great.
Someone on here said about Belarus! Belarus is with Russia, as long as the west does not try to topple its pro Russian leader I don't see there will be an issue. I did read the other week that Russia is now going to permanently base a combat wing in Belarus, to kind of counter continued western expansion into their sphere of influence.
I would preferred to keep all of the east as a non aligned, non NATO, (no western bases) buffer zone between the west and Russia. But continued western expansion has threatened Russia in a big way which is what I feared it would do.
If the Russians really started moving in a big way then we in the west would have to rebuild our forces in a big way, but while its just eastern block nations which were once under their control, I would not get involved. The risk of some kind of nuclear conflict is just to great.
Someone on here said about Belarus! Belarus is with Russia, as long as the west does not try to topple its pro Russian leader I don't see there will be an issue. I did read the other week that Russia is now going to permanently base a combat wing in Belarus, to kind of counter continued western expansion into their sphere of influence.
I would preferred to keep all of the east as a non aligned, non NATO, (no western bases) buffer zone between the west and Russia. But continued western expansion has threatened Russia in a big way which is what I feared it would do.
I wonder if the Captain has taken a crew vote to determine if she returns to Ukraine or not?
Ukrainian Frigate Hetman Sahaidachny Heads Home >> Naval Today
Ukrainian Frigate Hetman Sahaidachny Heads Home
Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny has successfully completed an operational tour with the EU Naval Force and is now sailing towards her home port of Sevastopol in the Ukraine.
The Ukrainian frigate joined the EU Naval Force on Friday 3 January 2014, after first deploying with NATO’s counter- piracy Operation Ocean Shield in the same region.
Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny has successfully completed an operational tour with the EU Naval Force and is now sailing towards her home port of Sevastopol in the Ukraine.
The Ukrainian frigate joined the EU Naval Force on Friday 3 January 2014, after first deploying with NATO’s counter- piracy Operation Ocean Shield in the same region.
GreenKnight
I think you are right. Too many countries have been 'artificially' created regardless of ethnic/linguistic/tribal/historical boundaries. Probably the best thing would be for the Ukraine to split exactly as you suggest. It is certainly not worth going to war over it.
I think you are right. Too many countries have been 'artificially' created regardless of ethnic/linguistic/tribal/historical boundaries. Probably the best thing would be for the Ukraine to split exactly as you suggest. It is certainly not worth going to war over it.
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But where does that stop? Are you then going to sanction that the world over?
Yes.
Basic principle of self-determination.
It's going to happen anyway, eventually.
If there isn't a peaceful mechanism, then it is more likely to be messy.
That's not to say that the world will fragment - unions are also possible.
That said, the unions have to come from popular support. That's why the current EU will collapse - it doesn't have popular support in a number of countries- it's just a construct by power-mad politicians.
Basic principle of self-determination.
It's going to happen anyway, eventually.
If there isn't a peaceful mechanism, then it is more likely to be messy.
That's not to say that the world will fragment - unions are also possible.
That said, the unions have to come from popular support. That's why the current EU will collapse - it doesn't have popular support in a number of countries- it's just a construct by power-mad politicians.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Vladimir Putin on Saturday submitted a request to the upper house of parliament asking approval for the use of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.
Here is the statement from the Kremlin:
In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country.
Here is the statement from the Kremlin:
In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country.
Racedo is far closer to being right than most here.
Where I would argue with him is over his definition of "Mob" in this case.
A "Mob" of Nations or of Individuals....what is the real difference really?
I see this as being a European thing....and hope Welfare Man sticks to his usual routine of running his Fool Mouth and being seen as being an Idiot....and does not decide to use our Military in any way to get us embroiled in this.
He is cutting our Military to Pre-WWII size....scuttling more of our Fleet than ever happened before....cutting the Air Force to saddening levels....and gutting the Army and Marine Corps.
The only good thing about all that is we will not have the capability of fighting a War overseas....but hopefully will be able to defend our Homeland when the invasion finally comes. Oh....sorryo.....I forgot....the Mexicans have already invaded and have established a solid presence here already!
So....y'all go ahead on.....and deal with Mr. Putin and the Russian Military will you....we will happily sit this one out!
Where I would argue with him is over his definition of "Mob" in this case.
A "Mob" of Nations or of Individuals....what is the real difference really?
I see this as being a European thing....and hope Welfare Man sticks to his usual routine of running his Fool Mouth and being seen as being an Idiot....and does not decide to use our Military in any way to get us embroiled in this.
He is cutting our Military to Pre-WWII size....scuttling more of our Fleet than ever happened before....cutting the Air Force to saddening levels....and gutting the Army and Marine Corps.
The only good thing about all that is we will not have the capability of fighting a War overseas....but hopefully will be able to defend our Homeland when the invasion finally comes. Oh....sorryo.....I forgot....the Mexicans have already invaded and have established a solid presence here already!
So....y'all go ahead on.....and deal with Mr. Putin and the Russian Military will you....we will happily sit this one out!
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Seems like Putin has got the backing he requested then! 
As it unfolds....
Ukraine Liveblog Day 12: Putin Prepares an Invasion | The Interpreter
As it unfolds....
Ukraine Liveblog Day 12: Putin Prepares an Invasion | The Interpreter
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After watching Channel 4 news...
..think some British people have more sympathy for Putin and Russia than the Western Ukrainians, many of whose thugs seem to Nazi sympathisers. But its a dogs breakfast.
Pretty impressive how fast Russia moved when it wanted to......
Pretty impressive how fast Russia moved when it wanted to......
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Shows the regard they hold the disabled games too.