Ukraine Crisis 2014
 

Might as well start a thread, as its going to be the story of the year as far as murder, death and senseless killing go.
Am I correct that, in a nutshell the basis of the conflict is that the western half of the Ukraine wish to move towards a unification with the EU, whilst the eastern half is far more pro Russia and wishes to resist any split or movement towards a pro EU engagement?


Today 20th February 2014 what are the implications for the UK in any sort of involvement?


My 2 cents worth saloon bar guess is the country will dissolve into civil war and chaos if it hasn't already done so.
I truly pray we do not become involved in any way or form.

There's a lot of pressure from Putin to force the Ukraine to stick with Russia.
I don't think we should doubt for a second he will help the eastern contingent in any way he sees fit if not already actively involved.

We should not even consider poking our nose in, even if the EU want to flex their muscles. It would be a proxy conflict with Russia.

From my point of view,
- The Ukrainian citizens want to be part of the EU.
- Their govt says no.
- Then Ukrainian citizens then stand up to their govt in protest.
- The govt then try to quash the citizens protests.

Implications for the UK? Isn't the Ukraine where we import most of our gas from? Like a crack addict needing their next fix, I could imagine UK politicians taking more interest if the gas supply is affected.

Much UK gas comes from Russia. Ukraine seeks the same supply and most pipelines run through Ukraine; however, now the UK has much more by way of liquid import facilities, it's not as crucial as it was.

The only angle for future gas supplies would be if the protestors take power, get upset and close the pipelines. The President and Russia are close. Complain too loudly and they could cut present supplies, but that's not as big a deal as it was ten years ago.

It's been coming for months, it's not a surprise. We washed our hands of it months ago. Everything is now posturing.

Streetwise Professor has been monitoring. Here are a few of his blog posts, see his site for the full saga.

November 23rd: Ukraine & Russia. Sovok Players. Sovok Tactics. Sovok Results. No Surprises Here.

January 31st: Ukraine: (Relative) Calm Before the Storm

February 6th: Look Beyond the F-Bomb: An Ominous Harbinger of Things to Come in Ukraine.

February 17th: Poor Ukraine: So Close to Putin, So Far From God

I seem to recall that revolutions in Europe, the 1848 series, didn't go too well in the short term due to the reaction, but the low level ripple effects ended up catching up a bit of momentum later on.

Perhaps it will be thuswise for Ukraine.

Perhaps not.

Makes one reassess all the new NATO partners and commitments taken on since the end of the Cold War.

Lots of baggage to consider.

Hmm, I don't really see that as a feasible position; we could stand by and watch as a country that borders the European Union descends into mayhem and all the many, many implications that has on energy security, trade & investment, contagion (to Belarus?) etc. etc. But do you think any EU action to try and stop the opposition getting their clock's cleaned wouldn't involve us?...I certainly don't.

My big worry instead, is do we (Europe) still have the capacity to act effectively, without the aid of the United States?...it could all end very embarrassingly for Europe and very triumphantly for Putin, IMHO. I'm pretty certain one of the big lessons from the former Yugoslavia was that Europe needed to take more responsibility for its own defence capabilities. Even then we needed good ol' Uncle Sam, and our capabilities as a continent are far diminished from then!!

Why when I watch this on the news do I have visions of Nicolae Ceaușescu attempting to flee his country in a helicopter.
Shooting ones own people is never a good thing and will come back to haunt Viktor Yanukovych, even if he had no part in it.

You would think that God would give us a break now and again. If it's not Syria it's Ukraine, if it's not Ukraine it's CAR. I wish we could have maybe a year of time out then get back on with it.

I'm not surprised though, they did this just too host a football competition

Neighborhood Cats / Archives

Ukraine, the European Football Championship and the mass murders of stray animals - Occupy for Animals!

And in other news, 400 and odd Nepalese workers have already been killed building Qatar's World Cup stadiums.

Time for Europe to lead on this one.....might as well because Welfare Man shall be bringing up the rear as usual.

More reminiscent of Hungary 1956.

That's exactly my point Bastardeaux, we (Europe) do not have that capacity. We would be heading into indirect, leading to direct, conflict with Russia. Without the support of the US, no chance. Putin does not strike me as someone to back down in the face of threats or (God forbid) sanctions. He's far too MACHO for that.

Seems like President Yanukovych has been thinking about Ceausescu as well.

BBC News - Ukrainian President Yanukovych agrees early election

Please don't invite us to this Party.....we have seen Putin's ability to outsmart Welfare Man by what happened in Syria....so no good use getting us involved.

In 2004 NATO and Ukraine were in very close negotiations over eventual membership. Then Russian Energy Coercion started. Russia has made it quite clear that it does not want a NATO member on their borders.

The Dead Hand of Russian Imperialism is all over this one; The EU relies very heavily on Ukrainian grain (as does Russia) indeed, much of their agrarian agriculture is Western owned. Being even closer to Europe is seen as a threat to Russia and in Moscow NATO and EU are regarded as synonymous.

So, what does the West do regarding the riots? Unless these develop into a widespread civil war, there is no direct role for the EU or NATO; however, if the Ukrainian army decides to defect to the protestors or refuses to support the Government, there is the possibility of Russian 'peacekeeping' intervention. Read: occupation. What does the West do then?

If a civil war does develop - and rioting has spread to other population centres - perhaps an EU sponsored Observer Mission could be proposed, backed up by the promise of PKO forces if conditions continue to deteriorate. Think Kosovo, June 1999. Imagine how different Balkans politics would be now if the Russian intervention at Pristina Airport had not be blocked, using, it seems, James Blunt and his squadron?

Ukraine is a country divided. This has been brewing ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence.

http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r...ps4960b57b.jpg
http://www.washingtonpost.com

Protests in Ukraine are not pro-EU (as it is written in most of international news agencies). The disruption of the association agreement with the European Union in November was only cause for local rallies. But after a peaceful student protest was violently dispersed by the 'Berkut' [special police] in Kyiv on Nov. 30, angry people took to the central square of the capital.

I know western forces have been much diminished since the height of the Cold War, but Russia's have been even more so. Add the fact that there's a helluva lot more countries in NATO than there were then. Personally if it ever came to a fight I think it would be pretty one-sided. One can imagine the Russian forces defecting en-masse, now they know all about our way of life, many of them having tasted it.