The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
I suspect we both know who would run out first! The Chinese have the luxury of choosing the moment and anticipating the effects of economic sanctions, They are hardly likely to begin without being fully prepared in advance and have had years to plan,
Wars, require a lot of POL. A blockade of China is part of the planning in the gaming that have made it to the public realm. Ask yourself why.
How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?
Unknowable. There is no evidence that PRC is any better at war fighting than RF. There is no evidence that Chinese military equipment is any better than Russian. They don't know for sure what the US response would be. They don't know what the international response would be. Maybe they can reduce Taiwan to a charred ruin and kill millions of people but what do they gain from that and at what cost? If they roll the iron dice they immediately lose control of the situation and anything can happen. Many here seem to view the Chinese as master strategists for some reason, but Xi comes over as a bog standard megalomaniac and this seems like an extraordinarily stupid thing to do.
Some of the gaming made public (intentional or otherwise) involves China conducting an extended blockade of Taiwan while in turn being blockaded.
Takes POL for that even if you think this will end on the same week it starts.
There are a whole range of scenarios that may be played out available on the internet. One of the better reviews, in my opinion, is this one.
.The Devastating Consequences of a War Over Taiwan
It is a longish read but it looks at a whole range of possibilities and is less jingoistic than many.
A review of the possible outcome of a blockade of Taiwan by the The Maritime Executive suggests China may suffer as a result, but it would not be a POL issue but rather the effect of the loss of imports from Taiwan.
Why a Blockade of Taiwan Would be Disastrous for China
Of course the problem with many analyses is they are written from a Western perspective and assume the Chinese think in a similar way to the analysts. This may be naive. As Russia and the Ukraine have shown, some states think very differently and the extent to which Taiwan is seen as unfinished business and their willingness to take losses in pursuit of Taiwan may have been underestimated.
.The Devastating Consequences of a War Over Taiwan
It is a longish read but it looks at a whole range of possibilities and is less jingoistic than many.
A review of the possible outcome of a blockade of Taiwan by the The Maritime Executive suggests China may suffer as a result, but it would not be a POL issue but rather the effect of the loss of imports from Taiwan.
Why a Blockade of Taiwan Would be Disastrous for China
Of course the problem with many analyses is they are written from a Western perspective and assume the Chinese think in a similar way to the analysts. This may be naive. As Russia and the Ukraine have shown, some states think very differently and the extent to which Taiwan is seen as unfinished business and their willingness to take losses in pursuit of Taiwan may have been underestimated.
“…we will extend them (the Koreans) our enthusiastic help in their struggle for independence. The same thing applies for Taiwan.”
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when...e-independent/
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How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?
I have already speculated in my exchange with West Coast and want to open it up to others to speculate to prevent another ping pong exchange of posts, I have posted a couple of links as food for thought so feel free to speculate. You are not usually short of an opinion. 😁
From a geograhphical perspective it is not the easiest target. The rest depends on Equipment (Ground based Air Defence and Anti- Ship Missiles) and determination. Also a critical topic will be supplies to Taiwan. As with Russia in Ukraine such an adventure could easily backfire.
For China it would currently surely be much easier occupying the Far East of Russia. There is not much Vlad' the Mad could do about it.
"Maybe they can reduce Taiwan to a charred ruin and kill millions of people but what do they gain from that and at what cost?"
they get back Taiwan - it's an absolute fixation, devoid of any hope of common sense or value. Quite a few wars have started on for similar reasons
I take your excellent point that once they start the situation is out of their control - far from believing Xi is a megalomaniac I think he'll be very wary of losing control. THE only thing more important to the CPC is continued control by the Party. ALL that is on the table in a conflict. They know their history - it's not all "foreign interference" - there's a big chunk of "warlord-ism" not that long ago. No point in regaining Taiwan and having the PLA running the country.
they get back Taiwan - it's an absolute fixation, devoid of any hope of common sense or value. Quite a few wars have started on for similar reasons
I take your excellent point that once they start the situation is out of their control - far from believing Xi is a megalomaniac I think he'll be very wary of losing control. THE only thing more important to the CPC is continued control by the Party. ALL that is on the table in a conflict. They know their history - it's not all "foreign interference" - there's a big chunk of "warlord-ism" not that long ago. No point in regaining Taiwan and having the PLA running the country.
Sadly we did it too, we truly believed that both China and Russia would become a democratic and free world like us. Most of their young people want that, in Russia they even believed they had that, until Putin said, this is not a democracy, you are not free to do what you want and I'm in charge. The same can be said of China albeit China hasn't actually done anything all that seriously wrong yet, We believed it wouldn't make any sense and it doesn't. I still believe in a free trade market just not with a regime ever again.
It is true about democracy, it's not free, you have to want it, you have to fight for it and then you have to defend it. Welcome Ukraine, may it be over soon and you take your place with us.
It is true about democracy, it's not free, you have to want it, you have to fight for it and then you have to defend it. Welcome Ukraine, may it be over soon and you take your place with us.
Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 11th Apr 2023 at 11:44.
That link you've posted is from an exercise in the Nevada desert.
China have Taiwan surrounded, and have passed the median line. China has discarded the status quo.
What's changed? China has changed - I refer you to my post below:
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
China have Taiwan surrounded, and have passed the median line. China has discarded the status quo.
What's changed? China has changed - I refer you to my post below:
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
America should adapt its foreign policy to reflect the reality of the world as it actually is, not how it was 20 years ago. China is not going to do as it's told because it doesn't have to. However much we might disagree with its actions, that is the reality.
Last edited by m0nkfish; 11th Apr 2023 at 11:18.
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A book called Chip War by Chris Miller gives some idea of the mayhem that would break loose in the event of an invasion of Taiwan and the west's subsequent lack of access to the cutting edge microcuircits that currently are only made there. Miller asserts that loss of this production would be as big of a hit to the world economy as the 1979 Oil crisis.
Interestingly though, the technical support supply chain is such that were Taiwan to fall under Chinese control Taiwanese chip production could only continue if the west, mainly Europe, continued support for the production hardware that the Taiwanese companies are using.
Interestingly though, the technical support supply chain is such that were Taiwan to fall under Chinese control Taiwanese chip production could only continue if the west, mainly Europe, continued support for the production hardware that the Taiwanese companies are using.
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I think that was discussed way up the thread but it is all a bit of an irrelevance in that their actions will be determined by how they see it, rather than how the West sees it, and I suspect they believe themselves to be ROC v2.0 (rebranded) and what was V1.0's should rightfully be V2.0's.
A valid argument can be made that they can’t get back something they never had, and that ROC has a stronger claim than PRC, which never ruled the island.
China is the oldest continuous society on Earth is it not....with many a government and claims of lands owned down through the Years....even Centuries....so who is the rightful owner in your view?
Is it China (now known as the PRC), Japan, or the Taiwanese (known today as the ROC)?
What effect did the several Treaties, Wars, and Rebellions have on who has rightful claim to Taiwan?
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/was-...part-of-china/
I have already speculated in my exchange with West Coast and want to open it up to others to speculate to prevent another ping pong exchange of posts, I have posted a couple of links as food for thought so feel free to speculate. You are not usually short of an opinion. 😁