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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 18th May 2023, 08:03
  #1681 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
How it starts, China effectively taking over the port of Vladivostok for trade shipments to anú from Jilin province to the rest of China - Chinese customs clearance for other international shipments with Chinese goods shipments being treated as domestic transfers.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2023...54fad34e0.html
Not suprising. Only surprising that Putin/Russia hasn't seen this coming. I guess in the medium term they can kiss good bye to anything east of the Urals.
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Old 18th May 2023, 10:30
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Not sure the Chinese want to take over the place - they just want access at mates rates to all the natural resources. There's no real market and not many people
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Old 18th May 2023, 10:41
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Not sure the Chinese want to take over the place - they just want access at mates rates to all the natural resources. There's no real market and not many people
What's Chinese for Lebensraum?
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Old 18th May 2023, 13:55
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They have plenty of room - and will have even more as more and more people move to the cities as development proceeds - currently only 65% live in cities compared to 80% in the USA and 90% in Australia

I believe they already have problems in the old "rust belt" and remote rural areas as the young are all moving into big cities further south
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Old 18th May 2023, 17:09
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
What's Chinese for Lebensraum?
Best guess 非洲
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Old 19th May 2023, 01:58
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Best guess 非洲
Belt and Road not working out so well, so why would Africa?
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Old 19th May 2023, 03:22
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lebensraum を 中国語 - 英語-中国語 の辞書で| Glosbe

Lebensraum to both main types of Chinese
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Old 19th May 2023, 05:03
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Joli
My immediate reaction to #1683 was shenghuo kongjian, but perhaps that was a little too literal and indeed shengcun kongjian fits the bill better.

Last edited by Barksdale Boy; 19th May 2023 at 05:48.
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Old 19th May 2023, 14:25
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G7 steps up Russia sanctions, seeks to cut China trade dependency
https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-lea...cy-2023-05-18/
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Old 19th May 2023, 16:56
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What we are saying is the Russian attack on Ukraine is the equivalent of the elephant in the room taking a fulsome dump and it is finally time to realise the elephant is China?
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Old 20th May 2023, 07:54
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two different problems - one is immediate the other very long term
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Old 20th May 2023, 11:06
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
two different problems - one is immediate the other very long term
Same problem - economic dependency on a potentially hostile state - different timing.
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Old 20th May 2023, 22:44
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Congratulations to the great geopolitical strategist Putin.

The China-Central Asia summit, to which China invited representatives of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - but did not invite Russia - is a very important signal.

This shows that China created a new Central-Asian C5, which China will lead. And Russia has lost its influence in the region where it historically had a lot of impact.



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Old 21st May 2023, 00:02
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
What we are saying is the Russian attack on Ukraine is the equivalent of the elephant in the room taking a fulsome dump and it is finally time to realise the elephant is China?
New game in town, and the name of the game is Elephant Footballs?
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Old 21st May 2023, 18:37
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Congratulations to the great geopolitical strategist Putin.
The China-Central Asia summit, to which China invited representatives of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - but did not invite Russia - is a very important signal.
That is a genuine middle finger towards Putin. Together with China showing interest in Russia's far East, Putin should be more wary of China than of the West. The West will not grab parts of Russia itself. In case of China I'm not so sure...
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How do you create a little empire?
By starting with a big one and fu**ing up.
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Old 5th Jun 2023, 12:46
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PRC's manoeuvring in the Straits of Taiwan in breach of the COLREGS seems a bit silly, how long would it take to get BB-63 back out on her own bottom, she is pretty capable of separating tubs across her bows.

On an aviation angle, seems time to put a couple of F-35's into trail on the PLAF aircraft that are breaching ICAO Annex Rules of the Air. Seems like a gentle reminder to play nicely.
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Old 5th Jun 2023, 13:45
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Originally Posted by fdr
PRC's manoeuvring in the Straits of Taiwan in breach of the COLREGS seems a bit silly, how long would it take to get BB-63 back out on her own bottom, she is pretty capable of separating tubs across her bows.
Sorry to rain on your parade, but the Iowa class have been stricken from the fleet; not even in mothballs. (When I was stationed at North Island, I got to take my dad (who was visiting from back East) to visit the USS Missouri, which was parked at the carrier piers at North Island. He got a real kick out of that).

FWIW, this geopolitics observer sees that Ukraine War and China/Taiwan gambit are at the meta level a part of the same movement: and if you read between the lines, highlight a crucial problem with the UN as it currently is. (Basically, it is no longer fit for purpose as a collective security organization).

He makes an interesting point that the Cold War / Cold Peace where US and China are the two poles is a very different beast from the USSR / West poles, in part due to China's maritime capability and geographic advantages, and it's being on par with the US economically, which the USSR never was.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 22:13
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Old 1st Jul 2023, 17:20
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“US and Chinese air-to-air capability unimportant”, reveals a study conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). As per the think-tank's wargames: 90% of USAF, JASDF & ROCAF aircraft will be lost to Chinese missiles on the ground.

There won’t be any Battle of Britain style air-superiority battles fought over Taiwan. It will be a rocket/missile war fought at long-ranges with DF-21s and AGM-158s – whoever runs out of missiles first will lose the war!

Here’s a link to CSIC’s fascinating 165-page wargame study: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazona...hFolxC_gZQuSOQ
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Old 1st Jul 2023, 19:47
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Four major (Airpower) takeaways from CSIC's Battle for Taiwan wargaming study (see last Tweet):

1. Shift to smaller, more survivable ships. The #USNavy lost two carriers and 10-20 major surface combatants as it fought its way to enter the Chinese defensive zone.

2. Continue development/fielding of hypersonic weapons. Hypersonics proved invaluable against Chinese platforms in game iterations.

3. Prioritize bombers over fighters. The range, standoff distance, and payload capacity of bombers presented the Chinese with serious challenges.

​​​​​​​4. Produce more, cheaper fighters and balance stealth with non-stealth aircraft production. With so many aircraft lost early in the conflict, the #USAF will need numbers (lots of them).

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