The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Where do we apply?
It's good to not just watch things happen, but to open new strategic options for the West at this very right moment.
Interesting article on how the tension over Taiwan has done harm to US / Thailand relations.
(at the link)
Lots of nuance and complexity in the region, politically.
Bottom line is that after a good 2022, the Thais (who have to live in this neighborhood, and who have a lot of economic ties with China) find the ratcheting up of tensions to be against their interests.
(at the link)
Lots of nuance and complexity in the region, politically.
Bottom line is that after a good 2022, the Thais (who have to live in this neighborhood, and who have a lot of economic ties with China) find the ratcheting up of tensions to be against their interests.
ys - the West always sees things in terms of everyone v China but intra-region there are a lot more varied drivers. Malaysia/Singapore, Thailand/Burma, Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam are all somewhat more pressing and , what's critical, more newsworthy locally. Indonesia tries to avoid any commitment to anything and the Philippines has flipped views on a regular basis
The elephant in the room is India, the world's most populous country has China as its second largest trading partner but it is only China's 13th. Since 2015 there seems to have been a decline in Sino-Indian relations. Although only a third of China's, India's defence expenditure is the world's 3rd or 4th highest (depending on source) and it has the second largest military in terms of numbers. How far it will seek to oppose actively China's influence in countries in the Indian Ocean, East and South China Seas remains to be seen.
. "Since 2015 there seems to have been a decline in Sino-Indian relations."
i'd say its been rocky since 1962 TBH
i'd say its been rocky since 1962 TBH
...
Thanks for the reminder Asturias
IIRC - The turning point in the establishment of Mao's Peoples Republic of China as the governing body of mainland China (during the course of the civil war post WWII) was deemed to be "When they crossed the Yangtse" - around late 1949.
Again IIRC - One of the first major nations to give formal recognition to the new administration was Nehru's India. A perfectly reasonable move for India. Look what it got 'em. That spat is still going - off and on.
Look what it gets anyone who tries to do "diplomacy" with the PRC.
Apparently BN Mullik's book - "The Chinese Betrayal" is still available in various €-formats on-line.
LFH
...
I'd say it's been rocky since 1962 TBH
IIRC - The turning point in the establishment of Mao's Peoples Republic of China as the governing body of mainland China (during the course of the civil war post WWII) was deemed to be "When they crossed the Yangtse" - around late 1949.
Again IIRC - One of the first major nations to give formal recognition to the new administration was Nehru's India. A perfectly reasonable move for India. Look what it got 'em. That spat is still going - off and on.
Look what it gets anyone who tries to do "diplomacy" with the PRC.
Apparently BN Mullik's book - "The Chinese Betrayal" is still available in various €-formats on-line.
LFH
...
If you read Mullik you should also read Maxwells "India's China War" - the whole frontier was never properly delineated OR demarcated - much of it was placed on dodgy maps by British administrators and, shall we say, incorporated some wishful thinking.
Generally speaking the Chinese have offered to negotiate and generally speaking the Indians have refused - God knows why - the areas make the Falklands ("two bald men fighting over a comb") look like the Garden of England
Generally speaking the Chinese have offered to negotiate and generally speaking the Indians have refused - God knows why - the areas make the Falklands ("two bald men fighting over a comb") look like the Garden of England
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It's a valid point but the boarder issue long predates the Chinese plans to move lots of water .
It seems grounded in a stand-off between boundaries set out (or not) by "unequal treaties " and imperialism on the Chinese side and the Indian view of sacred country none of which can be disposed of.
The Brahmaputra runs for hundreds of miles through what is clearly Chinese Tibet so they don't need to fight a border war to be able to divert it (if they wanted to). The main problems with the border in the western sector are someways north of the Indus in the Aksai Chin. This was more to do with the British trying to push the Imperial Russian Empire northwards than anything else.
It seems grounded in a stand-off between boundaries set out (or not) by "unequal treaties " and imperialism on the Chinese side and the Indian view of sacred country none of which can be disposed of.
The Brahmaputra runs for hundreds of miles through what is clearly Chinese Tibet so they don't need to fight a border war to be able to divert it (if they wanted to). The main problems with the border in the western sector are someways north of the Indus in the Aksai Chin. This was more to do with the British trying to push the Imperial Russian Empire northwards than anything else.
And in the middle of the first decade of this century when China began supoprting Indian claims to a permanent seat on the UNSC.I have see commentary that India would like to see a relationship of equal partners but China sees India as having to accept a junior but welcome role.
This is becoming a very dangerous part of the world for everyone on Earth. Pakistan is now essentially a failed state and economic vassal of China. India is cautiously playing both sides but on balance is moving moving away from China and towards the West as exemplified by the "Quad" agreement. So we have 2 nuclear armed border states one aligned with the Russia China axis and the other aligned with the west and both sitting next to a vital maritime trade route. I am especially worried about the command and control system for Pakistan nuclear missiles. There is open source intelligence suggesting that they are under the de-facto control of ISI extremists. The nightmare scenario is a nuclear missile launch against India orchestrated by some ISI wackadoodle spiral into WWW3....
They came close a few years back IIRC after which the major N powers waded in with some advice and assistance on Command & Control
The USA spent a fair bit in aid I think
The USA spent a fair bit in aid I think
over $100 mm I believe................... almost nothing to our US friends I'm sure........
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
How it starts, China effectively taking over the port of Vladivostok for trade shipments to an£ from Jilin province to the rest of China - Chinese customs clearance for other international shipments with Chinese goods shipments being treated as domestic transfers.
Presumably China will also be building improved raid and rail links from their cities and industrial zones to the ports.
No comments I have seen anywhere from the Russians.
In China Vladivostok is known as Haishenwai, meaning 'sea-cucumber bay' and was once ruled by China. And you know the Chinese principle of once Chinese, always Chinese….
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2023...54fad34e0.html
Experts: Transit port to bolster regional growth
Presumably China will also be building improved raid and rail links from their cities and industrial zones to the ports.
No comments I have seen anywhere from the Russians.
In China Vladivostok is known as Haishenwai, meaning 'sea-cucumber bay' and was once ruled by China. And you know the Chinese principle of once Chinese, always Chinese….
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2023...54fad34e0.html
Experts: Transit port to bolster regional growth
Just close friends co-operating..... 
right now the Russians have no choice at all.............
right now the Russians have no choice at all.............