The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
The real threat China should fear from France and Europe is messaging of the level of isolation/loss of trade to expect should they invade. While French and other Euros military participation would be welcomed I’d have to think, as it would provide the ability to say it’s a coalition effort. As to the heavy lifting, I wouldn’t expect much from Europe.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...eapons-russia/
Strange, at the same time the EU strategy is "tough" while France is "soft" vs. China? Macron must be desperate to distract from his domestic troubles? Whatever they prefer it should be coordinated between the EU and France. Going alone does not add weight.
France has traditionally had a last-resort connection with Russia, Iran and China, when everyone else in the West has irretrievably severed theirs.
It’s pretty clear that Macron was talking about a European Military organisation under the leadership of France, not the EU and not NATO. You could argue that splitting most of continental Europe away from NATO, effectively destroying it, would be warmly welcomed in Moscow and Beijing.
The relationship to the US is always a bit of an up and down. It depends to quite some extent how well the top politicians are personally getting along with the POTUS. With someone like Trump or to a much lesser extent George.W (in contrast to his dad where relationships were quite good) a strong tendency to cut ties with thee US was noticeable, whereas to some extent under Obama and definitely now Biden the relationships improved significantly (cue the military procurements in Germany -more from US: F-35, Chinook, P-8, potentially AH-1 or Apache, less together with France - MAWS killed, Tiger upgrade killed, no own developed HTH). With the aggression now seen from Russia I don't expect similar loosening of the ties in the near future unless Trump gets elected again and goes to bed with Putin. That would surely be something like a Deal- breaker.
Re getting involved in a quarrel with China over Taiwan one has to admit that the European Forces are not well equipped for a Peer level Fight Overseas. They had and to some extent still have significant Land Forces for National and NATO Defence. They have Equipment for Overseas asymmetric conflicts but they severly lack any Overseas Heavy Fighting Equipment (except from relatively powerful but short ranged Air Assets).
Last edited by henra; 10th Apr 2023 at 08:19.
I think it will be a very hard sell to the European public to get into a hot war with China over Taiwan.
Especially as every major European politician for the last 60 years has gone along with the the fact that Taiwan is part of China
Especially as every major European politician for the last 60 years has gone along with the the fact that Taiwan is part of China
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It's a hard sell to me too. UN and US 'one china' includes Taiwan as a territory. To me it's an internal squabble. Ukraine has a better case for boots on the ground. However SCS is a bigger picture than that.
Going by Macaroon. I can only take him at his word. He said about Taiwan in the SCS "the great risk, [we] gets caught up in crises that are not ours"
They can ignore the others in the Pacific, if they wish. Abandon the existing world order....Does France not even care about, what's left of their Pacific colonies?
@Sfojimbo, FYI, I didn't report your post.
They can ignore the others in the Pacific, if they wish. Abandon the existing world order....Does France not even care about, what's left of their Pacific colonies?
@Sfojimbo, FYI, I didn't report your post.
If China invades Taiwan it will be a problem for everyone, including France. Taiwan is the worlds leading supplier of advanced semiconductors that are essential for the successful functioning of Western economies. But I think Macron is correct in the position he is taking now, the US is busy escalating this issue and seems totally incapable of recognising the geopolitical reality they live in. China is a global super power, and is rapidly approaching the point where it can be a true near peer rival to the US, and there is nothing anyone can do about it now.
I feel people should take a step back and ask themselves why America has suddenly got a big axe to grind with China, and why Taiwan has become such a hot topic. I don't believe America is really interested in respecting the democratic rights of the people of Taiwan. If they did they would at least recognise Taiwan as a country, but they don't. In fact none of the major Western powers acknowledge Taiwan as an independent country, they do not have embassies in Taiwan and Taiwan is not allowed to participate in the majority of the global organisations such as the UN.
This is about the US trying to reassert itself as the dominant global superpower, but the Chinese dragon is now out of the cage and is not going back in again, continuing on this path will lead to a major conflict, if not a World War. So Macron is right not to blindly follow the US, and we should do the same. Engagement and an understanding and respect for our differences would serve us and our children better, the age of empires is meant to be over.
China has a force right now openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan, but the US is the problem again?
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
China has broken its HK guarantees and promises similar to Russia and Crimea before. Now China expands unilateral claims in the western pacific. It is now the time to say stop before things escalate in major ways. I agree with this US strategic assessment. China should be made aware that east west trade as we knew it will end after any Taiwan invasion.
America with an axe to grind? Eh?
China has a force right now openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan, but the US is the problem again?
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
China has a force right now openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan, but the US is the problem again?
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-...ls-2023-02-09/
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
China wasn't 'openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan' a few years ago. You have to ask yourself what has changed. If we are to assume that military rehearsals indicate the absolute intent to conduct military operations then everybody is at it, including us!!
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-...ls-2023-02-09/
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-...ls-2023-02-09/
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
China have Taiwan surrounded, and have passed the median line. China has discarded the status quo.
What's changed? China has changed - I refer you to my post below:
The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.
"China should be made aware that east west trade as we knew it will end after any Taiwan invasion."
What you mean is that US China trade will end. The rest of the world will cheerfully keep trading with China - half of them are happy to trade with Russia and that's a far worse case than Taiwan
And where will the US get all the cutting edge chips from that are in everything that's built?
What you mean is that US China trade will end. The rest of the world will cheerfully keep trading with China - half of them are happy to trade with Russia and that's a far worse case than Taiwan
And where will the US get all the cutting edge chips from that are in everything that's built?
That seems to be the Macron/French perspective but I don't agree. The disruption will be at least as big as the Russia-Western trade embargo that is still in the practical process of being implemented. Sure, India or some African states etc. might continue but it will be some significant reduction. This conflict would not end with Taiwan being invaded it would only start to escalate from that point.
Edited for clarification
Edited for clarification
Last edited by Less Hair; 11th Apr 2023 at 06:06.
China wasn't 'openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan' a few years ago. You have to ask yourself what has changed. If we are to assume that military rehearsals indicate the absolute intent to conduct military operations then everybody is at it, including us!!
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
As for Macron, who knows what fantasies he entertains as he sits at the table with Putin or Xi? Perhaps he dreams of having such unchallenged power and thinks that with their backing he can separate Europe from NATO and lead a French-dominated European military organisation and sit with them as an equal. The UK and Scandinavia would not buy it but Southern Europe would probably have no choice. He can already bully the weak von der Leyen into letting him dominate the EU.
I would say your last para regarding Macron is pure fantasy and he has much more important fish to fry, especially as he is now in his last term. One of his predecessors my have had such a vision but he is long deceased.
That seems to be the Macron/French perspective but I don't agree. The disruption will be at least as big as the Russia-Western trade embargo that is still in the practical process of scaling down. Sure, India or some African states etc. might continue but it will be some significant reduction. This conflict would not end with Taiwan being invaded it would only start to escalate from that point.
None of the countries in the "South" will bat an eyelid - Brazil, Chile, Argentina, S Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia and as for the Middle East.......
China will carefully study what happened to Russia.
With the added difficulty that Taiwan would have being resupplied. It would have to fight with what it had in the cupboard on the day with little chance resupply I would have thought, Would any other nation try to force additional supplies through a Chinese blockade?