The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...arns-8j5kl03hq
War with China in two years, top US general warns
China accused a senior American general of being “reckless” after he said the superpowers would be at war within two years.
In a stark warning about the chance of conflict over President Xi’s determination to seize Taiwan, General Mike Minihan, who oversees the US Air Force’s fleet of transport and refuelling aircraft, said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.”
In the memo obtained by NBC News, Minihan told operational commanders to make ready for combat. “Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” he said. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. US presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”…..
An air force spokeswoman, Major Hope Cronin, verified the memo’s authenticity, saying it “builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail”.
A US defence official, meanwhile, told The Washington Post that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China”. It reported that before taking over at Air Mobility Command in 2021, Minihan served in a variety of influential roles in the Pacific beginning in 2013.
They include a stint as the deputy commander of Indo-Pacific Command, with purview of China and Taiwan, from September 2019 to August 2021……
Last year Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of the US naval operations, also raised the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. “When we talk about the 2027 window [when China should build capability to seize Taiwan], in my mind that has to be 2022 or potentially 2023,” he said…….
War with China in two years, top US general warns
China accused a senior American general of being “reckless” after he said the superpowers would be at war within two years.
In a stark warning about the chance of conflict over President Xi’s determination to seize Taiwan, General Mike Minihan, who oversees the US Air Force’s fleet of transport and refuelling aircraft, said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.”
In the memo obtained by NBC News, Minihan told operational commanders to make ready for combat. “Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” he said. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. US presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”…..
An air force spokeswoman, Major Hope Cronin, verified the memo’s authenticity, saying it “builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail”.
A US defence official, meanwhile, told The Washington Post that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China”. It reported that before taking over at Air Mobility Command in 2021, Minihan served in a variety of influential roles in the Pacific beginning in 2013.
They include a stint as the deputy commander of Indo-Pacific Command, with purview of China and Taiwan, from September 2019 to August 2021……
Last year Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of the US naval operations, also raised the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. “When we talk about the 2027 window [when China should build capability to seize Taiwan], in my mind that has to be 2022 or potentially 2023,” he said…….
As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
WW1 never ended - it just rolled on and on.
My apologies, too simplistic, and yes of course, all of the above is true, but among the trends at the time was this yellow-peril hysteria in the western press only helping to split off the Japanese into a stereoyped 'us and them' separate entity that the J military were only too happy to take advantage of, and the populace to fall right into.
My point (admittedly weakly put) was that with the benefit of such hindsight I hope we do not fall into the same pattern with 'the Chinese', and as the good US General Minihan above, bring forwards a situation by delineating it too clearly and too publicly. Forewarned is of course forearmed, so I agree that we need to be ready for any sudden-move scenario concerning Taiwan.
My point (admittedly weakly put) was that with the benefit of such hindsight I hope we do not fall into the same pattern with 'the Chinese', and as the good US General Minihan above, bring forwards a situation by delineating it too clearly and too publicly. Forewarned is of course forearmed, so I agree that we need to be ready for any sudden-move scenario concerning Taiwan.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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BREAKING: The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the US - WSJ
https://t.co/0IqtNTTWPM
https://t.co/0IqtNTTWPM
Deja vu, all over again.
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…
China has <<1000 Nuclear Warheads, the US has >5000.
Conventionally the Chinese Armed Forces are surely the closest competitor to the US. On the Nuclear side of things Russia is pretty much on par with to the US, whereas China is more in the order of magnitude of combined Western Europe (UK + France + Nuclear Sharing Italy, Germany, Turkye)
If we are going to have a war with China, can we wait until Biden, Trudeau, Sunak, Macron, Albanese and whoever replaced St Jacinda to move on and be replaced by those with some level of competence?
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
really odd that they got elected when you think about it.
Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin
Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin
Lots of sound and fury down here as the Sydney Morning Herald publishes a series of stories `Red Alert' about `...the coming war with China in three years.'
"Irresponsible, warmongering, sensationalist etc etc." usual bleating - and also as usual - rent a crazy quote or two from Paul Keating, a once great man who's now totally out of touch.
I wonder if the situation we may face in 2027 might in fact be a Cuba crisis redux - but this time on steroids.
China blockades Taiwan, amasses an invasion fleet, puts it's nuclear weapons on alert and finds itself surrounded by the west and allies, also with nuclear weapons cocked.
We face a week, or two, or three of terrifying, sleepless nights wondering if the world will end - then they see sense and back down (that being a considerable oversimplifcation of what happened back then).
The resolution may be in the hands of some future diplomat who has to find a concession for the Chinese to do so, while saving face...
"Irresponsible, warmongering, sensationalist etc etc." usual bleating - and also as usual - rent a crazy quote or two from Paul Keating, a once great man who's now totally out of touch.
I wonder if the situation we may face in 2027 might in fact be a Cuba crisis redux - but this time on steroids.
China blockades Taiwan, amasses an invasion fleet, puts it's nuclear weapons on alert and finds itself surrounded by the west and allies, also with nuclear weapons cocked.
We face a week, or two, or three of terrifying, sleepless nights wondering if the world will end - then they see sense and back down (that being a considerable oversimplifcation of what happened back then).
The resolution may be in the hands of some future diplomat who has to find a concession for the Chinese to do so, while saving face...
Originally Posted by West Coast
By all mean, let’s continue the present path with containing the Norks as it’s been so successful.
To be fair we've been trying for 70 years and no-one has had much success under any US president, The issue is that the Family Kim have a clear, simple and ruthless policy of self-preservation for themselves. No-one else is quite as clear or commiited to getting shot of them. The price is too high for us- no-one will pay it.
