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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 30th Jan 2023, 08:20
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...arns-8j5kl03hq

War with China in two years, top US general warns

China accused a senior American general of being “reckless” after he said the superpowers would be at war within two years.

In a stark warning about the chance of conflict over President Xi’s determination to seize Taiwan, General Mike Minihan, who oversees the US Air Force’s fleet of transport and refuelling aircraft, said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.”

In the memo obtained by NBC News, Minihan told operational commanders to make ready for combat. “Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” he said. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. US presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”…..

An air force spokeswoman, Major Hope Cronin, verified the memo’s authenticity, saying it “builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail”.

A US defence official, meanwhile, told The Washington Post that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China”. It reported that before taking over at Air Mobility Command in 2021, Minihan served in a variety of influential roles in the Pacific beginning in 2013.

They include a stint as the deputy commander of Indo-Pacific Command, with purview of China and Taiwan, from September 2019 to August 2021……

Last year Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of the US naval operations, also raised the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. “When we talk about the 2027 window [when China should build capability to seize Taiwan], in my mind that has to be 2022 or potentially 2023,” he said…….

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Old 30th Jan 2023, 08:35
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As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
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Old 30th Jan 2023, 19:46
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
Huh? Japan attacked America because America thought they would?
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 03:00
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.
Not really - Japan realised it wasn't going to be seen as an equal partner with 'Western Empires' after the Versailles Treaty in 1919...it was granted the German territories in China - it also realised having few natural resources it would need an expansionist policy (certainly the hawks in the military thought so if the government of Japan didn't). The situation in China meant conflict was inevitable and the expansionist theory would certainly bring Japan into conflict with the British, Dutch, French and Americans. And so it transpired - the US sided with the Chinese over the conflict there and the Japanese orchestrated a reason to step up military matters throughout China and S E Asia. If the Americans wouldn't give Japan the fuels it needed - it'd have to go out and grab them & to a certain extent the idea of 'Asia for the Asians' looked attractive to some countries that were under colonial government

WW1 never ended - it just rolled on and on.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 03:19
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My apologies, too simplistic, and yes of course, all of the above is true, but among the trends at the time was this yellow-peril hysteria in the western press only helping to split off the Japanese into a stereoyped 'us and them' separate entity that the J military were only too happy to take advantage of, and the populace to fall right into.

My point (admittedly weakly put) was that with the benefit of such hindsight I hope we do not fall into the same pattern with 'the Chinese', and as the good US General Minihan above, bring forwards a situation by delineating it too clearly and too publicly. Forewarned is of course forearmed, so I agree that we need to be ready for any sudden-move scenario concerning Taiwan.
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Old 7th Feb 2023, 15:15
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BREAKING: The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the US - WSJ

https://t.co/0IqtNTTWPM
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Old 7th Feb 2023, 16:48
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Gee, we have a new missile gap. Deja vu, all over again.
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Old 7th Feb 2023, 20:06
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I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…
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Old 8th Feb 2023, 18:44
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…
Not quite, yet.
China has <<1000 Nuclear Warheads, the US has >5000.
Conventionally the Chinese Armed Forces are surely the closest competitor to the US. On the Nuclear side of things Russia is pretty much on par with to the US, whereas China is more in the order of magnitude of combined Western Europe (UK + France + Nuclear Sharing Italy, Germany, Turkye)
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Old 9th Feb 2023, 03:23
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…
I see what you did there.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 11:10
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China effectively declaring war on SpaceX and Starlink….

China Declares War on Starlink
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 12:21
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If we are going to have a war with China, can we wait until Biden, Trudeau, Sunak, Macron, Albanese and whoever replaced St Jacinda to move on and be replaced by those with some level of competence?
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 16:39
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really odd that they got elected when you think about it.

Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 19:10
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
really odd that they got elected when you think about it.

Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin
By all mean, let’s continue the present path with containing the Norks as it’s been so successful.
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Old 10th Mar 2023, 23:04
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Lots of sound and fury down here as the Sydney Morning Herald publishes a series of stories `Red Alert' about `...the coming war with China in three years.'
"Irresponsible, warmongering, sensationalist etc etc." usual bleating - and also as usual - rent a crazy quote or two from Paul Keating, a once great man who's now totally out of touch.
I wonder if the situation we may face in 2027 might in fact be a Cuba crisis redux - but this time on steroids.
China blockades Taiwan, amasses an invasion fleet, puts it's nuclear weapons on alert and finds itself surrounded by the west and allies, also with nuclear weapons cocked.
We face a week, or two, or three of terrifying, sleepless nights wondering if the world will end - then they see sense and back down (that being a considerable oversimplifcation of what happened back then).
The resolution may be in the hands of some future diplomat who has to find a concession for the Chinese to do so, while saving face...
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Old 11th Mar 2023, 00:49
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The next war will start when the ISI wackadoodles in Pakistan lob some nukes into India, who then return the favour and then all hell brakes loose...
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Old 11th Mar 2023, 07:12
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Originally Posted by West Coast
By all mean, let’s continue the present path with containing the Norks as it’s been so successful.

To be fair we've been trying for 70 years and no-one has had much success under any US president, The issue is that the Family Kim have a clear, simple and ruthless policy of self-preservation for themselves. No-one else is quite as clear or commiited to getting shot of them. The price is too high for us- no-one will pay it.
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Old 6th Apr 2023, 05:43
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-interference

New Zealand spy chiefs warn of ‘increasingly aggressive’ foreign interference

New Zealand’s intelligence bosses have warned of “increasingly aggressive activity” in the country by people they believe are spies for foreign states.

The annual report by the Security Intelligence Service (SIS), published this week, said unnamed states are making “enduring and persistent” efforts to collect intelligence against New Zealand’s government, target those with access to sensitive information, and interfere in all spheres of the country’s public life. Agents from one foreign government have cultivated “a range of relationships of significant concern”, the report said.

It did not name the countries accused, but analysts said New Zealand’s strategic importance in the Pacific, as well as growing global awareness of its politics, had attracted the ire of authoritarian leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin…..

The SIS credited increased information-sharing with both domestic and foreign government agencies as the reason it had identified “previously unknown individuals of security concern” in the past year. In the case of the group of alleged agents from a single country – subjects of a long-running investigation, the SIS said – information was collected that helped “inform a specific decision that involved those individuals and their associates.”

The report did not give more details…..

There have been few publicly documented cases of foreign interference in New Zealand. In March, a senior public servant took the unusual step of telling reporters he had lost his job after being accused of spying for China. The SIS did not comment on the claim.

Before New Zealand’s 2017 election, a lawmaker’s undeclared past connections to the Chinese Communist party raised questions about Beijing’s influence in Wellington and candidate vetting for political parties…..


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Old 8th Apr 2023, 23:02
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Unlike Russia which has turned out to be all smoke and mirrors, we already know China is no serious threat despite its sabre rattling and our medias response to that.
China is a manufacturer of just about everything for export to Europe and the US, in order to do that it must import just about everything, including energy from Russia. If China were to attack a western country, all of that would be cut off on day one. It would have to do it by sea, it has one aircraft carrier still being commissioned, how many of those troop carrying vessels would make it to their landing points.do you think. Maybe in another couple of decades which is still unlikely since we in the western world are pulling out of China. China is in serious economic trouble because of its visions of military grandeur and sabre rattling.
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Old 8th Apr 2023, 23:41
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we already know China is no serious threat
I’ll remove myself from the “we” as depending on who you are, China poses a serious threat imo.
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