The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
worse than fusion reactors...................................
China has been busy trying to firewall the consequences of a more hostile attitude towards it from the West. The burgeoning trend towards de-globalization with less interdependence (West-East) and more "friend-shoring", will accelerate the building of the firewall. When the perception that the firewall is complete takes hold then they will be very tempted to make a move on Taiwan.
30 years ago we hoped that Chinas growth and development would lead to democracy, Tiananmen square was the first sign that it was happening, they really do want it and I believe they do, but it's just not going to happen without bloodshed like every other democracy. We were wrong.
Do "we" actually have the authority or means to destroy the technology in Taiwan? Surely, that is something that must be left to the Taiwanese?
That seems completely correct to me.
Pitching up on the middle of a Sino-Taiwanese conviction and bombing the bejazus out of their industrial infrastructure “just in case “ might not endear you to the side you were supposed to be backing.
That's not what I intended to say if I did. I meant that infrastructure would not be allowed to be taken by China, if and when they were to attack Taiwan. I'm not one of those that believe that is going to happen any time soon and even if they did, I'm not convinced China would be successful.
Mjb
The other relevant party is consumers. We just acquired an mid size crossover suv EV called atto 3 from Byd, a Chinese manufacturer for just A$47k (£25k) including A$3k govt rebate. Designed by a former audi guy, Byd are 2nd biggest battery manufacturer so they can keep cost of the car battery competitive. The autonomous braking steering kit is 3rd party all the other locally made components are equal to European cars. They have just purchased a autonomous sensor company that will use lidar and new active suspension to identify irregularities in road surface and prepare suspension accordingly. They are still behind Tesla but years ahead of legacy manufacturers. An import ban on Chinese cars would be a serious political problem in Australia as they are the most affordable EVs and the Labor govt is ramping up EV subsidies in line with their green policies.
Mjb
Mjb
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Japan wants to open the first NATO office in Asia
The country has rethought the situation in the region after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is already in talks to open the first NATO liaison office in Asia.
According to Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, cooperation with NATO "becomes more and more important" as events in Eastern Europe go beyond its borders and have a direct impact on the situation in the Pacific region.…
The country has rethought the situation in the region after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is already in talks to open the first NATO liaison office in Asia.
According to Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, cooperation with NATO "becomes more and more important" as events in Eastern Europe go beyond its borders and have a direct impact on the situation in the Pacific region.…
Fantastic idea. Undisputed sea traffic from Asia is even NATO's sphere of interest. Russia might be too weak to oppose anything for years.
Couple of points:
Japan is not the North Atlantic, perhaps "SEATO" (South East Asia Treaty Organisation) with similar structures and laws driving inter-organisational coordination, interaction and political oversight. The alternative might be a fully integrated "WDTO" (World Defence Treaty Organisation) but this is perhaps a considerable stretch of imagination.
Since Russia is quickly becoming "Hors de Combat", China is the new Russia in that region, so an organisation comprised of nations who wish to deter the threat is definitely in order.
It took the West many, many years to define and implement their agreement, I suspect in Asia, it will take as long if not more to achieve something similar. The upside is, they already have a template to model.
IG
Japan is not the North Atlantic, perhaps "SEATO" (South East Asia Treaty Organisation) with similar structures and laws driving inter-organisational coordination, interaction and political oversight. The alternative might be a fully integrated "WDTO" (World Defence Treaty Organisation) but this is perhaps a considerable stretch of imagination.
Since Russia is quickly becoming "Hors de Combat", China is the new Russia in that region, so an organisation comprised of nations who wish to deter the threat is definitely in order.
It took the West many, many years to define and implement their agreement, I suspect in Asia, it will take as long if not more to achieve something similar. The upside is, they already have a template to model.
IG
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NOGO? Northern globe treaty organisation?
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Not only that, I believe that a more realistic objective would be like-minded Asian nations coming together collectively, and
gaining more confidence in their own ability to function together as an entity.
Unlike in the current situation, where individual nations who are not completely aligned in their defensive posture, call upon the USA, Europe or Australia for support and backup, Whereas a regional grouping would be much more confident in seeking common alignment and projecting a greater presence.
A model such as this would enable a more solid deterrent against aggression. I am also aware that some of these regional exercises are already occurring but are usually bolstered with additional elements from the West or Australia.
So the potential is there, but not the cohesive integration.
IG
The answer is no, however, Asians think very differently to Western Europeans or the US and will need to have a model that incorporates their specific circumstances.
Not only that, I believe that a more realistic objective would be like-minded Asian nations coming together collectively, and
gaining more confidence in their own ability to function together as an entity.
Unlike in the current situation, where individual nations who are not completely aligned in their defensive posture, call upon the USA, Europe or Australia for support and backup, Whereas a regional grouping would be much more confident in seeking common alignment and projecting a greater presence.
A model such as this would enable a more solid deterrent against aggression. I am also aware that some of these regional exercises are already occurring but are usually bolstered with additional elements from the West or Australia.
So the potential is there, but not the cohesive integration.
IG
Not only that, I believe that a more realistic objective would be like-minded Asian nations coming together collectively, and
gaining more confidence in their own ability to function together as an entity.
Unlike in the current situation, where individual nations who are not completely aligned in their defensive posture, call upon the USA, Europe or Australia for support and backup, Whereas a regional grouping would be much more confident in seeking common alignment and projecting a greater presence.
A model such as this would enable a more solid deterrent against aggression. I am also aware that some of these regional exercises are already occurring but are usually bolstered with additional elements from the West or Australia.
So the potential is there, but not the cohesive integration.
IG
The deciding factor should be a prospective nation’s willingness to accept the articles that define NATO and not a preconceived belief of the eastern mindset.
If anything I’d see the tyranny of distance being the real inhibiting factor, not one of culture. Hard for Europe to be of timely military assistance to Japan when the quickest paths are likely through the aggressor and sympathizers.
I agree, distance is a major problem. In regard to collaboration, many nations have defence agreements with other nations in addition to having commitments to Nato.
IG
IG