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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Chad Gates 21st Jan 2022 07:04


Originally Posted by BuzzBox (Post 11173019)
McGowan's critics have been quite vocal about their displeasure, but a lot of people are quietly pleased about the decision.

I feel that MM would have been devastated by the front page of the West Australian today. It looks like he may have lost their support.

BuzzBox 21st Jan 2022 07:15


Originally Posted by Chad Gates (Post 11173023)
I feel that MM would have been devastated by the front page of the West Australian today. It looks like he may have lost their support.

Yes, it's interesting how they've done a complete 180 on him, going from fawning obsequiousness to baying for his blood. Mind you, I'm not sure he cares.

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 07:18


Originally Posted by Transition Layer (Post 11173014)
Speculation or source? (not disagreeing with you…I think Perth long haul bases are on thin ice.)
At least SOPS is happy in retirement

Well here's the text from the press release:
Timing to reinstate Qantas’ Perth-London route, which is currently operating via Darwin and was due to return to Western Australia in late March 2022, is under review.
Note the use of language. "Timing to reinstate". Trying to extract a glimmer of hope out of a very negative day, this would indicate they eventually want to return. If they wanted to pressure the WA government they could've use language like "the viability or long term future of the Perth London route is under review". A browse of the Australian Frequent Flyers Forum shows the Darwin stopover isn't particularly popular, if it were to be a long term option they would need extensive terminal and lounge upgrades which may not even be possible from the space available. They'd probably use SIN instead.

We know just yesterday they have been in recent talks over PER-JNB. They returned to PER-LHR as soon as the aborted opening date was confirmed, and soon after announced PER-FCO. So no secret they see money to be made out of Perth, and unlike pilots business people tend to forget about grudges if there's money to be made. They know however money will only be made with open borders, so I'd expect any confirmation of those international routes will happen post a new opening date. As for the 330 we know there's enough domestic transcontinental travel that it will be needed after border reopening so doubt that will go in the long term.

So if I was PER based LH crew I wouldn't be browsing real estate listings in other states just yet. Thing is there's still a lot of unused capacity out there, A380s, which won't all be back in the air by year's end. If there was so much potential flying out there those 380s would be back ASAP and perhaps those 787s and 330s would be deployed elsewhere, but that doesn't seem to be. In that press release the group Domestic capacity is only going to 60% until this blows over so I even east coast bases won't be flying at max hours for the foreseeable future. I think what may be likely is a return to rolling stand downs, no doubt airlines will lobby for more government assistance to keep going until WA finally reopens. The estimate is now for group Domestic capacity to be at 60% til this blows over. You can also expect a lot of talk about "remaining competitive" to prepare for future EBA negotiations.

As to that new date, it's up in the air.

On one hand due to McGowan not having the balls to own a specific date, he may hope there's further spread of the Omicron cases and more seeping in with some compassionate returnees in Feb, so after the East Coast waves reduce (which they are starting to peak now) he can reopen but have an excuse that means he doesn't have to own that decision.

At the other extreme if he wants 80-90% boosted that won't be until June, and then there's zero chance they'll open up at the start of winter. So then Oct/Nov as a minimum, and then the elderly will be almost a year from their booster.

I think at this stage the eventual reopening could be a coin toss anywhere from Feb-Nov.

Also comments from the Chamber of Minerals and Energy warning about delaying reopening too much, These are the guys who supposedly the most important in the state:

https://thewest.com.au/news/kalgoorl...body-c-5377922

Chad Gates 21st Jan 2022 07:24


Originally Posted by BuzzBox (Post 11173033)
Yes, it's interesting how they've done a complete 180 on him, going from fawning obsequiousness to baying for his blood. Mind you, I'm not sure he cares.


It’s on total display at the checkout of every grocery store, newsagent, bakery etc…… all day, in every town in WA, calling him an “abject failure”. If he doesn’t care, he’s not much of a politician.

It’s going to be a long 3 years for him. With only the support of an unknown percentage (my guess would be for less than 50%) of the WA population (and that will diminish over time) and what now seems to be none of the media, he’s cooked.

galdian 21st Jan 2022 07:45


Originally Posted by Chad Gates (Post 11173040)
It’s on total display at the checkout of every grocery store, newsagent, bakery etc…… all day, in every town in WA, calling him an “abject failure”. If he doesn’t care, he’s not much of a politician.

It’s going to be a long 3 years for him. With only the support of an unknown percentage (my guess would be for less than 50%) of the WA population (and that will diminish over time) and what now seems to be none of the media, he’s cooked.

OK what have I missed?

MM is in government, as the leader, with only two opposition members in parliament.

The people of WA voted him in with the majority to "go nuts, fill yer boots, the second coming has arrived".

He doesn't have to appeal to the people, only to his own party....or at least keep them in control.

Simples really! :ok:






Xeptu 21st Jan 2022 07:49

Meatloaf is dead, once was a legend

SHVC 21st Jan 2022 07:55


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 11173035)
[size=33px]east coast bases won't be flying at max hours for the foreseeable future. I think what may be likely is a return to rolling stand downs, no doubt airlines will lobby for more government assistance to keep going until WA finally reopens.[/size]

Borders are open, there is flying, because pax numbers are down and pilots are not rostered max hrs is not cause for stand downs. If they do use use this and unions allow them to, what happens in 2028 if this is over and the usual February quiet is on?! It almost would make the work force casuals allowing stand downs all the time. It’s just the cost of doing business and QF must wear the wage bill.

WingNut60 21st Jan 2022 07:57


Originally Posted by BuzzBox (Post 11173033)
Yes, it's interesting how they've done a complete 180 on him, going from fawning obsequiousness to baying for his blood. Mind you, I'm not sure he cares.

Do you actually accept the front page of the West Australian as authoritative?
A couple of days ago they were crowing at GT's prowess as the best aviation journalist / guru on the face of the planet.

SOPS 21st Jan 2022 08:00


Originally Posted by Chad Gates (Post 11173040)
It’s on total display at the checkout of every grocery store, newsagent, bakery etc…… all day, in every town in WA, calling him an “abject failure”. If he doesn’t care, he’s not much of a politician.

It’s going to be a long 3 years for him. With only the support of an unknown percentage (my guess would be for less than 50%) of the WA population (and that will diminish over time) and what now seems to be none of the media, he’s cooked.

We must be going to different shops. 😁

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 08:01

Just to provide a glimmer of slightly more positive news.

The secret CHO health advice has been published.

Benefits of COVID-19 booster shots in WA would start to wane after March: Chief Health Officer

Important points:
  • WA could reach 75 per cent booster coverage by March 2.
  • Beyond that date, the waning of protection from boosters is anticipated to offset this gain, particularly among the elderly and healthcare workers who were boosted early, and decisions on future [opening] dates would require further modelling
  • “Any decision on opening dates should consider the potential for twin outbreaks if the peak or post-peak period is expected to fall in the winter influenza season.”

Reading that WA Health have openly admitted that opening up much later beyond early March could cause significant problems. So maybe, just maybe, there's a hope it may only be a delay of 4 weeks. Or enough that the peak doesn't hit the same time as the flu and other viruses, so potentially no later than April.

And I think what stuffed McGowan yesterday was not so much the delay but the new lack of a plan and subsequent date. Even the AMA that had previously been calling for a 4 week delay have come out very strongly against this indefinite plan:

AMA WA president Mark Duncan-Smith calls for urgent border reopen date to be announced

So there's three previous Pro McGowan or strong borders groups, the WA AMA, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy and the West Australian, that have really savaged McG over yesterday's announcement and the lack of a definite date.

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 08:11


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11173052)
Borders are open, there is flying, because pax numbers are down and pilots are not rostered max hrs is not cause for stand downs. If they do use use this and unions allow them to, what happens in 2028 if this is over and the usual February quiet is on?! It almost would make the work force casuals allowing stand downs all the time. It’s just the cost of doing business and QF must wear the wage bill.

Not saying I think it should happen, but what I think will happen.

They can probably use the continued WA closure to justify more stand downs across all bases as a result of overall domestic capacity reduction.

But hopefully the info in the last post I made can give hope that this delay will be short lived, as even they know that the effect of waning immunity on the elderly is more serious than not as many kids vaxxed.

SOPS 21st Jan 2022 08:15

Leaving aside arguments about an opening date, that Health Department release is interesting. If booster shots start wane….can we expect to need a shot every 6 months from now on.?

Chad Gates 21st Jan 2022 08:20

Is that the first time we’ve ever seen any of the health advice? I can’t remember ever seeing any over the last 2 years. That they feel the need to release it is interesting in itself.

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 08:33


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11173067)
If booster shots start wane….can we expect to need a shot every 6 months from now on.?

The European Medicines Agency admitted that frequent boosters given every 6 months would be useless and have no real effect. Instead shots should be timed to coincide with your flu season shot, just prior to winter.


Originally Posted by Chad Gates (Post 11173070)
Is that the first time we’ve ever seen any of the health advice? I can’t remember ever seeing any over the last 2 years. That they feel the need to release it is interesting in itself.

Maybe to cool off speculation it would be a longer term closure? Maybe they think they can get away with a 4 week delay but want to remain vague about the exact date until closer, seeing they've already broken one promise.

Potsie Weber 21st Jan 2022 08:42

There is a chance McGowan won’t have a particularly difficult decision in a month or so. Testing rates in WA are dismally low with the current outbreak and his border decision has very much split the state in half. This is on top of increasing opposition to his heavy handed vaccine mandates and smugness over other states and countries. A huge number of WA residents are 1st generation interstate or overseas immigrants and are fed up with him. His latest stunt could well be a tipping point.

Never before have I seen local social media posts wishing COVID to start spreading in WA, today I have seen plenty. Plenty of comments on the radio too about no longer being so compliant with checking in, vaccine status or booster shots. There is a real growing sense of anger and increasing numbers actively willing to let COVID rip, don’t check in, ignore exposure site info and don’t get tested. Four cases today that can’t be linked, this could explode very quickly and the borders become meaningless.

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 08:58


Originally Posted by Potsie Weber (Post 11173078)
Four cases today that can’t be linked, this could explode very quickly and the borders become meaningless.

What I found interesting was the Rio Tinto workers at the airport picked up in preflight screening.

One would've assumed they were asymptomatic and not linked to any known cases. So they rocked up at the airport thinking there was no reason that they could potentially be infected. So there must be more quiet spread going on in the city unawares. So Covid zero won't come back, and even in hot weather and masks it must be ready to go exponential.

Again it links in with my theory that McG just doesn't have the balls to own a reopening date and take the blame for letting the virus in. So hopefully it takes off and he has an excuse to deflect criticism.

More weight to that theory:

Dr Robertson recommended health workers moving to WA from interstate after February 5 should have their quarantine time reduced to seven days of home isolation and they should be able to work in their second week after arriving to boost staffing levels.

So ordinary people have to do 14 days at home, but healthcare workers can go to work after 7 days straight into the middle of hospitals and aged care homes? McGowan surely must want an outbreak

Xeptu 21st Jan 2022 09:36

You don't need to be in any rush to let the virus in, it will happen all by itself. when it does happen if you think life is going back to normal you are seriously deluded. We in SA would never have agreed to this if we knew what was going to happen. like us as it was, you are not experiencing any inconvenience at all at the moment, that's all about to change, Supply shortages, business closed, can't do much because nothing is open at least the way you expect it to be and for what, so we can travel, well that's not going to plan either. I deeply regret supporting opening the borders, but you guys don't take our advice and experience for it, you just jump straight in there and do it, don't say you weren't warned. I don't want to hear your whining after the event.

Torukmacto 21st Jan 2022 09:41


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11173099)
You don't need to be in any rush to let the virus in, it will happen all by itself. when it does happen if you think life is going back to normal you are seriously deluded. We in SA would never have agreed to this if we knew what was going to happen. like us as it was, you are not experiencing any inconvenience at all at the moment, that's all about to change, Supply shortages, business closed, can't do much because nothing is open at least the way you expect it to be and for what, so we can travel, well that's not going to plan either. I deeply regret supporting opening the borders, but you guys don't take our advice and experience for it, you just jump straight in there and do it, don't say you weren't warned. I don't want to hear your whining after the event.

if you don’t jump in how do you get to the other side ?

Xeptu 21st Jan 2022 09:45

I don't know, all I know is that we are shutting down all operations at the end of the month, anyone who drills holes in the ground will shut down soon afterwards, like us we are all falling over like a row of dominoes, I don't have the answers, except that it wasn't like this when the borders were closed.

dr dre 21st Jan 2022 09:58


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11173099)
You don't need to be in any rush to let the virus in, it will happen all by itself. when it does happen if you think life is going back to normal you are seriously deluded. We in SA would never have agreed to this if we knew what was going to happen. like us as it was, you are not experiencing any inconvenience at all at the moment, that's all about to change, Supply shortages, business closed, can't do much because nothing is open at least the way you expect it to be and for what, so we can travel, well that's not going to plan either. I deeply regret supporting opening the borders, but you guys don't take our advice and experience for it, you just jump straight in there and do it, don't say you weren't warned. I don't want to hear your whining after the event.

I see this type of comment a lot but no acknowledgement of reality.

1, there will always be a reopening wave, whether you open up at 90% double vaxxed or 99% triple vaxxed. The case rise will be exponential and the media will fearmonger about it. This is inevitable. The only option is to never reopen and use "crush and kill" full lockdowns if there's an outbreak permanently.

2, people react to what the media feeds them. Fearmonger non stop about cases, people will be too afraid to step outside. Ambulance services and Emergency Departments are reporting most Covid cases using rushing to use those services have mild symptoms and have overreacted.

3, rules designed to stop the original version or Delta aren't appropriate for Omicron. Most are reporting a day or two needed off work, but rules dictate a full 7 days off work. This affects staff shortages considerably.

4, the Omicron wave is having a lower effect on health systems than even the most optimistic predictions. SA has about 200-400 ICU beds, currently 33 occupied with those tested positive to Covid, this has peaked or is very close to.

5, not sure about SA but Victoria definitely isn't hiding away from the AO tennis crowds I can see. WA broadcaster admits Sydney isn't locking itself away despite popular WA opinion.

As someone in WA I've noticed the mask wearing and slight cases in the community has caused a noticeable decrease in public movement already. Until the wave passes it will remain.


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